Artificial Intelligence and Risk Analysis in Projects

1. Auflage 2026
ISBN: 978-1-041-32746-2
Verlag: Taylor & Francis Ltd

Buch, Englisch, 248 Seiten, Format (B × H): 156 mm x 234 mm

Every project carries uncertainty. Costs overrun, schedules slip, and revenues disappoint — not because project managers lack skill, but because most risk analyses rely on single-point estimates that conceal the true range of possible outcomes. This book provides a structured framework for project risk management, combines it with rigorous quantitative risk analysis, and shows how artificial intelligence makes both accessible to every practitioner, regardless of budget or technical background.
Artificial Intelligence and Risk Analysis in Projects delivers a complete, practitioner-focused framework covering the full project risk management lifecycle — from risk identification and qualitative assessment through quantitative risk analysis, response planning, and monitoring and control. The quantitative core of the book addresses Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic NPV and IRR appraisal, decision trees, Expected Monetary Value, sensitivity analysis, and the calibration of probability distributions from real project data. A case study running through the book compares two capital investment projects under deterministic and probabilistic analysis, demonstrating concretely how single-point estimates overstate expected returns and conceal the probability of loss — in one case by more than 70%. The AI dimension is integrated throughout rather than treated as a separate topic: readers learn how large language models support risk identification and qualitative analysis, how AI enhances the accuracy of Monte Carlo simulation inputs, how structured prompt engineering directs AI toward specific risk management tasks, and how AI performs as an independent model auditor and stress-testing partner. The book addresses the governance, validation, and accountability structures that responsible AI deployment in project environments requires, and closes by demonstrating Monte Carlo simulation using AI alone — making rigorous probabilistic analysis accessible to practitioners who lack access to commercial simulation software.

Written for project risk managers, project controls professionals, and students of project management, this is the first book to unite a structured project risk management framework, rigorous quantitative risk analysis, and applied artificial intelligence in a single integrated treatment. It is both a professional reference and a practical guide — grounded in real case studies, immediately applicable to real project decisions, and positioned at the frontier of where the project risk management profession is heading.

Zielgruppe

Academic, Postgraduate, Professional Practice & Development, and Undergraduate Advanced

Autoren/Hrsg.

Carmona, Manuel

Fachgebiete

• Mathematik | Informatik EDV | Informatik Daten / Datenbanken
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften: Forschung und Information Risikobewertung, Risikotheorie
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Management Projektmanagement
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Management Risikomanagement
• Mathematik | Informatik EDV | Informatik Informatik Künstliche Intelligenz Computer Vision
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Finanzsektor & Finanzdienstleistungen Versicherungswirtschaft
• Mathematik | Informatik EDV | Informatik Informatik Künstliche Intelligenz Maschinelles Lernen
• Mathematik | Informatik EDV | Informatik Informatik Künstliche Intelligenz Mustererkennung, Biometrik
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Finanzsektor & Finanzdienstleistungen Finanzsektor & Finanzdienstleistungen: Allgemeines
• Mathematik | Informatik EDV | Informatik Programmierung | Softwareentwicklung Software Engineering
• Mathematik | Informatik EDV | Informatik Business Application Software für Projektmanagement

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Introduction. CHAPTER 1. The environment of risk analysis in projects. CHAPTER 2. The key role of project managers — risk management and strategic leadership. CHAPTER 3. The risk management environment in a project. CHAPTER 4. Statistics for risk analysis: fundamentals for data-driven decision-making. CHAPTER 5. A framework for managing risks in projects. CHAPTER 6. How to create a risk plan. CHAPTER 7. Risk identification — strategies for detecting and anticipating potential problems. CHAPTER 8. The quantitative risk analysis process. CHAPTER 9. Economic evaluation of projects Monte Carlo— a case study. CHAPTER 10. Decision optimisation with decision trees, EMV analysis, and Bowtie. CHAPTER 11. The arrival of artificial intelligence in risk management. CHAPTER 12. AI-assisted Monte Carlo simulation — from deterministic model to probabilistic analysis. Bibliography. Index.

Über Autor(innen)

Manuel Carmona is an independent consultant, trainer, author, and PhD researcher at the University of Westminster in London, specialising in artificial intelligence, project risk management, and quantitative risk analysis (QRA). With more than 25 years of international experience, he has delivered hundreds of professional training programmes and coached thousands of practitioners in advanced risk management, probabilistic modelling, and Monte Carlo simulation.
He advises organisations across sectors including energy, engineering, construction, infrastructure, finance, and technology, helping them make better decisions under uncertainty by combining statistical methods with AI-driven decision support. His areas of expertise include quantitative risk analysis, cost and schedule risk analysis, probabilistic financial modelling, scenario planning, and forecasting.
Manuel is the author of the English-language book Artificial Intelligence and Risk Analysis in Projects (Routledge) and the Spanish-language Inteligencia Artificial y Análisis de Riesgos en Proyectos (Marcombo). Both books explore how AI can augment—rather than replace—human expertise in project management and decision-making. He speaks English, Spanish, and French fluently.