Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems

Softcover Nachdruck of hardcover 1. Auflage 2009
ISBN: 978-1-4419-4703-1
Verlag: Springer US

Buch, Englisch, Band 129, 436 Seiten, Paperback, Format (B × H): 155 mm x 235 mm, Gewicht: 703 g

Reihe: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science

In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure.

Written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers, the book emphasizes methods and strategies for modeling causal relations in complex and uncertain systems to the point at which effective risk management decisions can be made. Individual sections of the book introduce QRA, show how to avoid bad risk analysis, illustrate the principles for doing better analysis, and then show specific applications and extensions.

Zielgruppe

Research

Autoren/Hrsg.

Cox Jr., Louis Anthony

Cox, Louis Anthony

Fachgebiete

• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften: Forschung und Information Risikobewertung, Risikotheorie
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Management Risikomanagement
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Operations Research
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften: Forschung und Information Entscheidungstheorie, Sozialwahltheorie

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface.- Goals and challenges for quantitative risk assessment.- Introduction to engineering risk analysis.- Introduction to health risk analysis.- Limitations of risk assessment using risk matrices.- Limitations of quantitative risk assessment using aggregate exposure and risk models.- Identifying nonlinear causal relations in large data sets.- Overcoming preconceptions and confirmation biases using data mining.- Estimating the fraction of disease caused by one component of a complex mixture: bounds for lung cancer.- Bounding resistance risks for penicillin.- Confronting uncertain causal mechanisms – portfolios of possibilities.- Determining what can be predicted – identifiability.- Predicting effects of changes: could removing arsenic from tobacco smoke significantly reduce smoker risks of lung cancer.- Simplifying complex dynamic networks: a mathematical model of protease imbalance and COPD dynamic dose-response.- Value of information (VOI) in risk management policies for tracking and testing imported cattle for BSE.- Improving anti-terrorist risk analysis.- Designing resilient telecommunications networks.- References.- Index.