The Steps to War

An Empirical Study
Erscheinungsjahr 2008
ISBN: 978-0-691-13892-3
Verlag: Princeton University Press

Buch, Englisch, 334 Seiten, Format (B × H): 156 mm x 231 mm, Gewicht: 483 g

The question of what causes war has concerned statesmen since the time of Thucydides. The Steps to War utilizes new data on militarized interstate disputes from 1816 to 2001 to identify the factors that increase the probability that a crisis will escalate to war. In this book, Paul Senese and John Vasquez test one of the major behavioral explanations of war--the steps to war--by identifying the various factors that put two states at risk for war. Focusing on the era of classic international politics from 1816 to 1945, the Cold War, and the post-Cold War period, they look at the roles of territorial disputes, alliances, rivalry, and arms races and show how the likelihood of war increases significantly as these risk factors are combined. Senese and Vasquez argue that war is more likely in the presence of these factors because they increase threat perception and put both sides into a security dilemma. The Steps to War calls into question certain prevailing realist beliefs, like peace through strength, demonstrating how threatening to use force and engaging in power politics is more likely to lead to war than to peace.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Senese, Paul D.

Vasquez, John A.

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Internationale Beziehungen Diplomatie
• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Internationale Beziehungen Konflikt- und Friedensforschung, Rüstungskontrolle, Abrüstung
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften Interdisziplinär Friedens- und Konfliktforschung

Inhaltsverzeichnis

List of Figures and Tables ix

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xv

Introduction 1

PART I: Foundations

Chapter 1: The Steps to War 7

Chapter 2: The Evolution of a Research Program: Research Design 37

PART II: Territory and War

Chapter 3: From Territorial Claims to Territorial Disputes: Testing for Selection Effects 75

Chapter 4: Territory, Contiguity, and Their Interaction: A Contingent Model of Interstate Conflict 104

PART III: Power Politics and War

Chapter 5: The Probability of War between Nation-States 129

Chapter 6: The Probability of Crisis Escalation 179

Chapter 7: Exploring Interactions in the Steps to War 215

PART IV: Conclusion

Chapter 8: Explaining War, Thinking about Peace 251

References 281

Name Index 301

Subject Index 307

Über Autor(innen)

Paul D. Senese was associate professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, State University of New York. He died in 2006 as this book was coming to completion. John A. Vasquez is the Thomas B. Mackie Scholar in International Relations at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.