Buch, Englisch, 288 Seiten
Modes of Thinking and Models of Analysis
Buch, Englisch, 288 Seiten
ISBN: 978-1-394-44972-9
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons Inc
Systematize political risk analysis with rigorous analytical tools
The contemporary world faces a unique combination of interconnectedness with increasing levels of geopolitical uncertainty and political risk. The need for models and methods with which to evaluate uncertainty and risk has never been greater Evaluating Political Risk: Modes of Thinking and Models of Analysis provides a systematic analytical toolkit, presenting methods and models grounded in insights from psychology, public policy, political science, economics, and history.
Evaluating Political Risk teaches readers to systematize their reasoning and apply analytical tools responsibly. The progressive chapter structure moves from foundational concepts of risk and uncertainty through increasingly sophisticated analytical models, developing cumulative competence. Each chapter pairs a specific method or model with applied illustrations, drawn from around the world.
Readers will also find: - A curriculum-ready chapter sequence designed to map onto a standard 15-week semester for graduate or advanced undergraduate courses
- Practical guidance on analytical methods for assessing instability, navigating negotiations, and strategizing resource allocation
- Interdisciplinary frameworks integrating insights from psychology, economics, history, and public policy into coherent political risk methods
- Contemporary case studies illustrating each model's real-world application across multiple regions, political systems, and types of risk
- Tools applicable beyond corporate settings, that can serve intelligence analysts, diplomats, NGO leaders, and journalists
Written for advanced undergraduates, graduate students in international relations, political science, and business, as well as working professionals, Evaluating Political Risk delivers the analytical toolkit needed to reason through political risk and uncertainty with discipline and analytical rigor.
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Weitere Infos & Material
Acknowledgments x
SECTION ONE Basic Building Blocks of Analysis
CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Political Risk Analysis 3
1.1 Political Risk is Everywhere 3
1.2 Risk, Politics, Analysis: Defining Core Concepts 4
1.3 Why Take Political Risk? 7
1.4 Toward a More Rigorous Practice of Political Risk Analysis 7
Notes 9
CHAPTER 2 Approaching Political Risk Systematically 10
2.1 The Qualities and Consequences of Risk 10
2.2 Risks and Risk Events 17
2.2.1 Terrain 17
2.2.2 First-Orderand Second-Order Effects 18
2.3 The Object of Risk 19
2.4 Cumulative Risk in a Context of Polycrisis 20
2.5 Building Systemic Risk Analysis 21
Notes 21
CHAPTER 3 Thinking Analytically About Political Risk 23
3.1 The Uses of Political Risk Analysis 23
3.2 Setting the Parameters for Political Risk Analysis 24
3.3 Recognizing the Limits and Challenges to Political Risk Analysis 26
3.4 Methodological Standards 32
3.4.1 Useful 32
3.4.2 Theoretically Informed 33
3.4.3 Transparent 34
3.4.4 Reliable 35
Notes 37
CHAPTER 4 The Building Blocks of Political Risk Analysis 39
4.1 Political Risk Analysis and the Scientific Method 39
4.2 Asking Good Questions 40
4.3 Developing Hypotheses 47
4.4 Considering the Evidence 50
4.5 Drawing Analytical Conclusions, Couched in Probabilistic Terms 51
4.6 Reappraising Our Analysis 52
Notes 52
SECTION TWO Framing Behavior: Preferences, Institutions, and Constraints
CHAPTER 5 Leader Preferences, Beliefs, and Behavior 57
5.1 Preferences and Beliefs 58
5.2 Political Identity and Political Preferences 59
5.3 Leader Personality as a Clue to Action 61
5.4 Profiling Leader Personality 62
5.5 A Political Profile of Donald J. Trump 68
5.6 FInal Considerations: The art of Understanding Preferences and Behaviors 73
Notes 74
CHAPTER 6 Institutions 76
6.1 Institutions, Organizations, and Incentives 77
6.2 Institutions at Various Levels of Abstraction 79
6.2.1 Systems of Institutions: Limited-Access vs. Open-Access 79
6.2.2 Regime Clusters and Macro-Institutional Configurations 82
6.2.3 Emergent, Locale-Specific, and Institutional Configurations 89
6.2.4 Institutional Rules for Policymaking 94
Notes 97
CHAPTER 7 Constraints 99
7.1 Key Arguments of the Constraints Framework 100
7.2 Political Constraints 100
7.3 Economic and Financial Constraints 103
7.4 Geopolitical Constraints 105
7.5 Constitutional and Legal Constraints 106
7.6 Considerations about the Constraints Framework 110
Notes 110
SECTION THREE Models of Political Risk
CHAPTER 8 Descriptive Models of Risk 115
8.1 Descriptive Models of Industrial Risk: FMEA and HAZOP 115
8.2 Descriptive Models of Organizational Risk: PESTEL and SWOT 116
8.3 Descriptive Models of Natural Risk: The Air Quality Index and the National Risk Index 118
8.4 Descriptive Model of Geopolitical Capacity: Global Monetary and Financial Profiles of States 121
8.5 Final Thoughts 123
Notes 123
CHAPTER 9 Political Risk Indices and Credit Ratings 125
9.1 The International Country Risk Guide 126
9.2 S&P Sovereign Ratings 128
9.3 Considerations about Indices and Ratings 130
9.3.1 What are They Explaining? 130
9.3.2 Aggregation Method 131
9.3.3 Explanatory Variables 132
9.3.4 Objective and Subjective Measures 133
Notes 135
CHAPTER 10 Stakeholder Analysis 137
10.1 Veto Players 137
10.2 The Lockwood Model 142
10.3 Static Stakeholder Analysis: The Prince and Bueno de Mesquita Models 145
10.3.1 A Tale of Two Presidents: Venezuela 2019 147
10.4 Dynamic Stakeholder Analysis 153
10.5 Considerations about Stakeholder Analyses 155
Notes 156
CHAPTER 11 Financial Market Signals 158
11.1 Basic Concepts for Understanding Markets 159
11.2 Sovereign Debt Spreads as Signals 161
11.3 Credit Default SWAPS 162
11.4 Considerations about the use of Spreads 163
11.5 The Shape of Yield Curves 163
11.6 Exchange Rates as a Signal 165
11.7 Investment Baskets as a Signal 166
11.8 Commodities 167
11.9 Volatility Measures 167
11.10 Political Risk Insurance 167
11.11 Final Considerations 169
Notes 170
CHAPTER 12 Surveys, Polls, and Electoral Forecasts 171
12.1 Public Opinion Surveys 171
12.2 Electoral Polling 174
12.3 Poll Aggregators 180
12.4 Electoral Forecasting Models 181
12.5 Combined Models 185
12.6 Final Considerations 186
Notes 186
CHAPTER 13 Crowd Prediction Systems 187
13.1 The Wisdom of Crowds 187
13.2 The Delphi Method 188
13.3 Prediction Markets 190
13.4 Crowd Forecasting 195
Notes 198
CHAPTER 14 Early Warning Models 199
14.1 The Evolution of Early Warning Models 199
14.2 Databases and Data Challenges 201
14.3 Common Frameworks of Conflict Early Warning Models 201
14.4 Statistical Early Warning Models 204
14.4.1 The Political Instability Task Force (PITF) 205
14.4.2 Violence Early Warning System (ViEWS) 206
14.5 Machine-Learning and AI-Implemented Early Warning Models 209
14.6 Final Considerations 212
Notes 213
CHAPTER 15 Scenarios 215
15.1 Shell and Scenario Analysis 215
15.2 First-and Second-Generation Scenario Analysis 217
15.3 The Nuts and Bolts of Scenario Development 218
15.4 Considerations about Scenarios 225
Notes 225
CHAPTER 16 Wargaming 227
16.1 Gaming out Uncertainty 227
16.2 Types of Wargames 228
16.3 The Origins of Analytical Wargaming 229
16.4 Nuts and Bolts of Analytical Wargaming 231
16.5 Considerations about Wargaming 233
Notes 236
CHAPTER 17 Concluding Thoughts 237
References 239
Index 263
