The Strategic Survey 2020

The Annual Assessment of Geopolitics
1. Auflage 2020
ISBN: 978-0-367-70118-5
Verlag: Taylor & Francis

Buch, Englisch, 396 Seiten, Format (B × H): 156 mm x 234 mm, Gewicht: 900 g

Reihe: Strategic Survey

Strategic Survey 2020 is the indispensable guide to the events, actors and forces that defined an exceptionally complex year. It highlights the geopolitical issues that will shape the international agenda in 2021.

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Militärwesen Nationale und Internationale Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften: Allgemeines Jahrbücher, Jahresbände und Almanache

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Chapter 1 Introduction 5
Editor’s Introduction 5
Drivers of Strategic Change 7
Chapter 2 Key Events 11
Chapter 3 Strategic Prospects 17
Chapter 4 Strategic Policy 25
2020: The Politics of Pandemic 25
How has the most severe disease in a century shaped geopolitics?
Shifting Attitudes Towards Multilateralism 38
Cooperation is needed more than ever: why are its institutions under strain?
Key International Legal Gaps 47
What are they, and how can they be closed?
Prospects for Arms Control 61
Will the future resemble the past?
Climate Change: Year of Reckoning, Postponed 70
COVID-19 deferred action – but did it create an opportunity?
Chapter 5 North America 79
Drivers of Strategic Change 80
2019–20 Review 83
US–China Relations 90
No way back?
Trump and the Transatlantic Relationship 100
How far has US policy towards Europe changed?
Chapter 6 Asia 109
Drivers of Strategic Change 110
2019–20 Review 113
Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision at the Crossroads 130
Will it endure after Abe?
Hong Kong 139
A triumph of experience over hope?
Changes in Jammu and Kashmir 148
What are the strategic implications?
The US–Taliban Deal 160
Will Afghanistan’s peace process work?
China’s Strategic Ambitions in the South Pacific 168
Past the peak?
Chapter 7 Europe 179
Drivers of Strategic Change 180
2019–20 Review 183
Germany’s Foreign-policy Challenges 191
How is the EU’s largest state navigating global change?
China’s Influence in the European Union 200
Why has the past year been so difficult?
European Strategic Autonomy 210
From symbolic to substantive?
Chapter 8 Russia and Eurasia 219
Drivers of Strategic Change 220
2019–20 Review 223
Russia: The Road to 2024 232
What challenges face Putin and his system?
Zelensky’s First Year as Ukrainian President 242
Is he fulfilling his promises?
Central Asia: Connectivity, COVID-19 and Geopolitics 252
What next for the Eurasian heartland’s international ties?
Chapter 9 Middle East and North Africa 263
Drivers of Strategic Change 264
2019–20 Review 267
The New Geopolitics of the Red Sea 277
Why is interest in the region resurging?
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Nile Geopolitics 288
Will Africa’s huge new dam create a crisis?
Turkey’s Force Generation Abroad 299
How and why is Erdogan projecting power?
Chapter 10 Sub-Saharan Africa 309
Drivers of Strategic Change 310
2019–20 Review 313
Debt Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa 321
How severe – and will Washington and Beijing help?
South Africa’s Difficult Choices 336
Does ‘Ramaphoria’ have a future?
Chapter 11 Latin America 345
Drivers of Strategic Change 346
2019–20 Review 349
The Expansion of Brazilian Organised Crime 358
How serious a threat to Latin American governance and beyond?
Venezuela’s Political Stalemate 367
How long can it endure?
Mexico’s ‘Fourth Transformation’ 377
Can López Obrador deliver change while distrusting institutions?
Index 387

Über Autor(innen)

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The staff of the Institute is international in composition and IISS work is international in its perspective and reach. The Institute is independent and stresses rigorous fact-based research with a forward-looking policy orientation that can improve wider public understanding of international security problems and influence the development of sounder public policy, and more effective business decisions in the international arena.