Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction

Erscheinungsjahr 2006
ISBN: 978-0-19-920278-2
Verlag: Oxford University Press

Buch, Englisch, 240 Seiten, Print PDF, Format (B × H): 160 mm x 240 mm, Gewicht: 521 g

This clear and accessible text describes the methods underlying short-term climate prediction at time scales of 2 weeks to a year. Although a difficult range to forecast accurately, there have been several important advances in the last ten years, most notably in understanding ocean-atmosphere interaction (El Nino for example), the release of global coverage data sets, and in prediction methods themselves. With an emphasis on the empirical approach, the text covers in detail empirical wave propagation, teleconnections, empirical orthogonal functions, and constructed analogue. It also provides a detailed description of nearly all methods used operationally in long-lead seasonal forecasts, with new examples and illustrations. The challenges of making a real time forecast are discussed, including protocol, format, and perceptions about users. Based where possible on global data sets, illustrations are not limited to the Northern Hemisphere, but include several examples from the Southern Hemisphere. Includes foreword by Professor Edward Lorenz (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

Autoren/Hrsg.

van den Dool, Huug

Fachgebiete

• Geowissenschaften Geologie Geophysik
• Naturwissenschaften Physik Physik Allgemein
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften: Forschung und Information Datenanalyse, Datenverarbeitung
• Geowissenschaften Geologie Aeronomie, Ionosphäre, Magnetosphäre
• Naturwissenschaften Physik Angewandte Physik Umweltphysik
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Stochastik Mathematische Statistik
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Numerik und Wissenschaftliches Rechnen Numerische Mathematik
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Mathematik Allgemein
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften: Allgemeines Populärwissenschaftliche Werke
• Technische Wissenschaften Technik Allgemein Mathematik für Ingenieure
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Stochastik Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung
• Naturwissenschaften Physik Angewandte Physik Geophysik
• Geowissenschaften Geologie Meteorologie, Klimatologie

Inhaltsverzeichnis

- Foreword

- Preface

- 1: Introduction

- 2: Background on orthogonal functions and covariance

- 3: Empirical wave propagation

- 4: Teleconnections

- 5: Empirical orthogonal functions

- 6: Degrees of freedom

- 7: Analogues

- 8: Methods in short-term climate prediction

- 9: The practice of short-term climate prediction

- 10: Conclusion

- References

- Index

Über Autor(innen)

Huug van den Dool gained his PhD in Dynamical Meteorology from the University of Utrecht in 1975. He has since worked as a researcher at KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the University of Maryland, and as Chief of Prediction at the CPC (Climate Prediction Center). He is currently a principal scientist at CPC and an adjunct professor at the University of Maryland.