The Message Matters

The Economy and Presidential Campaigns
Erscheinungsjahr 2009
ISBN: 978-0-691-13963-0
Verlag: Princeton University Press

Buch, Englisch, 232 Seiten, Format (B × H): 154 mm x 234 mm, Gewicht: 330 g

The economy is so powerful in determining the results of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start. But if it is true that "it's the economy, Stupid," why do incumbents in good economies sometimes lose? The reason, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what matters is not just the state of the economy but how candidates react to it. By demonstrating more precisely than ever before how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, The Message Matters provides a powerful new way of understanding past elections--and predicting future ones.Vavreck examines the past sixty years of presidential elections and offers a new theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions. Using data from presidential elections since 1952, she reveals why, when, and how campaign messages make a difference--and when they can outweigh economic predictors of election outcomes.The Message Matters does more than show why candidates favored by the economy must build their campaigns around economic messages. Vavreck's theory also explains why candidates disadvantaged by the economy must try to focus their elections on noneconomic issues that meet exacting criteria--and why this is so hard to do.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Vavreck, Lynn

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Politische Kultur Politische Propaganda & Kampagnen, Politik & Medien
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Volkswirtschaftslehre Volkswirtschaftslehre Allgemein Wirtschaftswachstum
• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Politische Systeme Wahlen und Volksabstimmungen

Inhaltsverzeichnis

List of Figures xi

List of Tables xiii

Acknowledgments xvii

Prologue xxi

CHAPTER ONE: Presidential Campaigns 1

Basic Questions 2

What's Coming 3

PART I

CHAPTER TWO: How and Why Campaigns Matter 9

The Challenge 10

Something's Happening in America 11

The Importance of the Economy 12

The Importance of the Media 14

A Theory of Campaign Effects 15

Integrating Literatures 16

Spatial Voting: The Past as Predictor of the Future 18

Retrospective Voting and Campaign Effects 22

Individual-Level Characteristics and Campaign Effects 23

CHAPTER THREE: Context Matters: A Campaign Typology 26

Theoretical Predictions 28

A Campaign Typology 31

Clarifying Campaigns 31

Insurgent Campaigns 32

When the Economy Is Mixed 33

Predicting Campaign Types, 1952-2000 35

PART II

CHAPTER FOUR: The Media Disconnect:Media and Candidate Messages 43

Candidates' Messages and How to Measure Them 46

Advertisements and Speeches 46

Newspaper Coverage 48

Coding the Ads, Speeches, and News Coverage 53

The Content of Modern Campaigns 57

The Media Disconnect 58

CHAPTER FIVE: The Message Matters: Candidate-Level Tests of the Theory 67

Clarifying Campaigns: Dominating Economic Discussion 69

Insurgent Campaigns: Issue Selection Matters 71

Stevenson 1952 and 1956: Second Time Same as the First 76

Goldwater 1964: Just Enough Power to Get the Job Done 78

Carter 1980 and Mondale 1984:War through Strength 80

Dukakis 1988: An Unfocused American Dream 82

Insurgent Candidates Making Wise Choices 83

Kennedy 1960: High Hopes 83

Nixon 1968: Freedom from Fear or Racial Appeal? 86

Carter 1976: Outside and Honest 90

Two More Tests of the Theory at the Candidate Level 105

A More Rigorous Test of Compliance 105

Explaining the Errors in Forecasting Models 107

PART III

CHAPTER SIX: The Message Matters:Microlevel Tests of the Theory 113

Clarifying Candidate Campaign Effects: Do Campaign Messages Shape Voters' Evaluations of Candidates? 115

High Fidelity? 116

Ads:Messages That Matter 120

Clarifying Candidate Campaign Effects: Do Campaign Messages Help Voters Learn about Candidates' Issue Positions? 123

Measuring Uncertainty 125

Reducing Uncertainty 128

Campaign Learning about the Economy 131

Insurgent-Candidate Campaign Effects: Changing the Debate by Increasing the Importance of Issues 134

The Most Important Problem in the Nation 137

Most Important Problem and Vote Choice 140

Insurgent Candidate Campaign Effects: Being Closer to Most Voters on the Insurgent Issue 144

The Difference in Distances 144

Differences in Distances and Vote Choice 151

The Message and Its Effects 155

CHAPTER SEVEN: Candidates Creating Context 159

Can Candidates Create the Context? 160

Creating Salience: Finding the Right Insurgent Issue 163

Appendix 167

References 191

Index 199

Über Autor(innen)

Vavreck, Lynn
Lynn Vavreck is associate professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles. She is coeditor of "Campaign Reform: Insights and Evidence" and coprincipal investigator of the Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project.