The Mirroring Fallacy

Misunderstanding Soviet and Chinese Naval Strategy
Erscheinungsjahr 2027
ISBN: 978-3-032-42945-2
Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan

Buch, Englisch, 175 Seiten, Format (B × H): 148 mm x 210 mm

Reihe: St Antony's Series

This book brings historical analysis to fears of a naval arms race in the Asia-Pacific.  The lesson of the second half of the Cold War shows the misleading effect of mirroring Western naval intent onto adversaries.  By unpacking fears about the size of the Chinese navy and concentrating on Chinese intent, a historical pattern emerges of naval misperception.  Guarding against this mirroring fallacy will improve decision-making on both sides.

Zielgruppe

Research

Autoren/Hrsg.

Ward, Andrew

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Internationale Beziehungen

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Chapter 1: Introduction.- Part I: The Soviet Navy: a lesson from history.- Chapter 2: Underestimating the Soviet Navy, 1941-1965.- Chapter 3: Underestimating the Soviet Navy, 1941-1965.- Chapter 4: Out of the Blue – the Cold War Soviet naval challenge 1967-1990.- Chapter 5: The Western response – the 1986 and the navies of the 21st century.- Part II: The challenge from China: the People’s Liberation Army (Navy).- Chapter 6: Overestimating China as a sea power.- Chapter 7: ‘If we spurn the sea’ – Chinese naval strategy in the 2020s.- Chapter 8: Conclusion.

Über Autor(innen)

Andrew Ward is an information warfare officer in the UK Royal Navy. Having served at sea in destroyers and , he was the 2023-24 Hudson visiting fellow at Oxford University. He read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at University College, Oxford and holds an MA in Defence and Security Studies from King’s College London. In 2025 Andrew sailed with the aircraft carrier to the Asia-Pacific.