Buch, Englisch, 212 Seiten, Paperback, Format (B × H): 155 mm x 235 mm, Gewicht: 371 g
Reihe: Popular Science
Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive
Buch, Englisch, 212 Seiten, Paperback, Format (B × H): 155 mm x 235 mm, Gewicht: 371 g
Reihe: Popular Science
ISBN: 978-0-387-09836-4
Verlag: Springer
Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace’s principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer’s random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory.
The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and “reference class” to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula.
Zielgruppe
Popular/general
Autoren/Hrsg.
Fachgebiete
Weitere Infos & Material
Formulation.- Confirmation.- Double jeopardy.- Human survivability.- Apocalypse how?.