Primer on Risk Analysis

1. Auflage 2011
ISBN: 978-1-4398-5763-2
Verlag: CRC Press

Buch, Englisch, 251 Seiten, Format (B × H): 154 mm x 233 mm, Gewicht: 422 g

In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice.

This primer tackles the question, "what is risk analysis?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, it provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. Readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. Making a distinction between knowledge uncertainty and natural variability, the book also introduces a down-to-earth approach to decision making under uncertainty. Extensive examples illustrate the applicability of the risk analysis principles.

The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles of risk analysis in a manner that enables readers to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis.

A companion volume, Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles of risk analysis—the "how to."

Additional exercises, as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.

Zielgruppe

Risk analysis practitioners; academicians and students in risk analysis, including courses in engineering, business, the sciences, healthcare, food, and nutrition; professionals in the areas of safety, security, health, environment/ecosystem, engineering, and public works; food manufacturing plant managers and food product marketing managers; quality control personnel; safety managers; compliance managers; regulators and government researchers in regulatory agencies; organizations that support international trade; international organizations.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Yoe, Charles E.

Yoe, Charles

Fachgebiete

• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften: Forschung und Information Risikobewertung, Risikotheorie
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften: Forschung und Information Entscheidungstheorie, Sozialwahltheorie
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Management Risikomanagement

Inhaltsverzeichnis

The BasicsWhat is risk?What Is Risk Analysis? Why Do Risk Analysis? Who Does Risk Analysis? A Brief Historical Perspective On Risk Analysis Government Agencies Private Sector When Should We Do Risk Analysis? Organization of BookSummary and Look ForwardReferences
Uncertainty Introduction Uncertainty from 75,000 feet The Uncertainty on Your Desk Knowledge Uncertainty or Natural Variability? Types of Uncertainty Quantity Uncertainty Sources of Uncertainty in Empirical Quantities Being Intentional About Uncertainty Summary and Look Forward References
Risk Management Introduction Identifying Problems and Opportunities Problem RecognitionProblem Acceptance Problem Definition Risk Estimation Establish Risk Analysis Process Individual Risk Management Activities Risk Evaluation Principles for Establishing Acceptable and Tolerable Levels of Risk The DecisionRisk Control Formulating RMOsEvaluating RMOs Comparing RMOs Making a Decision Identifying Decision Outcomes Implementing the Decision Risk Monitoring Monitoring Evaluation and IterationRisk Management Models Summary and Look Ahead References
Risk Assessment Introduction What Makes a Good Risk Assessment? Definitions Risk Assessment Activities Understand the Questions Identify the Source of the Risk Consequence Assessment Likelihood Assessment Risk Characterization Assess Effectiveness of RMOs Communicate Uncertainty Document the Process Risk Assessment Models Risk Assessment Methods Qualitative Risk Assessment Quantitative Risk Assessment Summary and Look Ahead References
Risk Communication Introduction Definitions Internal Risk Communication Coordination Between Assessors and Managers Risk Communication Process Documenting the ProcessExternal Risk Communication Risk and Crisis CommunicationPublic InvolvementConflict ResolutionSummary and Look Forward References
ExamplesIntroductionQualitativeLevee Risk RangerPest RiskQuantitativeDredging Project Cost EstimateVibrio parahaemolyticus in OystersSummary and Look ForwardReferences
Appendix A: The Language of Risk and ISO 31000IntroductionISO 31000Enterprise Risk ManagementObservationsReferences
Index

Über Autor(innen)

Yoe, Charles
Charles Yoe is a professor of economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University, Baltimore, U.S.A., and an independent risk analysis consultant and trainer. Working extensively for U.S. and other government agencies as a consultant and risk analyst, his wide range of risk experience includes international trade, food safety, natural disasters, public works, homeland security, ecosystem restoration, resource development, navigation, planning, and water resources.

As a consultant to private industry, his work includes a discrete but wide variety of concerns. He has trained professionals from more than one hundred countries in risk analysis and conducted customized risk training programs for government agencies and private industry in over two dozen nations.

Charles Yoe is a professor of economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University, Baltimore, U.S.A., and an independent risk analysis consultant and trainer. Working extensively for U.S. and other government agencies as a consultant and risk analyst, his wide range of risk experience includes international trade, food safety, natural disasters, public works, homeland security, ecosystem restoration, resource development, navigation, planning, and water resources. As a consultant to private industry, his work includes a discrete but wide variety of concerns. He has trained professionals from more than one hundred countries in risk analysis and conducted customized risk training programs for government agencies and private industry in over two dozen nations.