Principles of Risk Analysis

1. Auflage 2011
ISBN: 978-1-4398-5749-6
Verlag: CRC Press

Buch, Englisch, 584 Seiten, Format (B × H): 156 mm x 235 mm, Gewicht: 1019 g

In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?"

Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages.

The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis.

Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.

Zielgruppe

Risk analysis practitioners; academicians and students in risk analysis, including courses in engineering, business, the sciences, healthcare, food, and nutrition; professionals in the areas of safety, security, health, environment/ecosystem, engineering, and public works; food manufacturing plant managers and food product marketing managers; quality control personnel; safety managers; compliance managers; regulators and government researchers in regulatory agencies; government agency managers and analysts; organizations that support international trade; international organizations.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Yoe, Charles E.

Fachgebiete

• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Stochastik
• Mathematik | Informatik Mathematik Operations Research
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Management Risikomanagement
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Unternehmensforschung
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften: Forschung und Information Risikobewertung, Risikotheorie

Inhaltsverzeichnis

The BasicsWhat is Risk?What Is Risk Analysis? Why Do Risk Analysis? Who Does Risk Analysis? When Should We Do Risk Analysis? Organization of Book
Uncertainty Uncertainty from 75,000 Feet The Uncertainty on Your Desk Being Intentional About Uncertainty

Risk Management Identifying Problems and Opportunities Risk Estimation Risk Evaluation Risk Control Risk Monitoring Risk Management Models

Risk Assessment What Makes a Good Risk Assessment? Definitions Risk Assessment Activities Risk Assessment Models Risk Assessment Methods

Risk Communication Definitions Internal Risk Communication External Risk Communication

Problem Identification for Risk ManagementWhat’s a Problem? What’s an Opportunity?Becoming Aware of Problems and OpportunitiesProblem and Opportunity Identification TechniquesThe P&O Statement
BrainstormingWhat Can You Brainstorm?BackgroundAvoid Problems in Your ProcessA Few Good Techniques3× YeahGroup Evaluations with Colored DotsDo You Need a Facilitator?Addendum
Opportunity Costs and Trade-OffsEconomics for Risk ManagersEconomics and Decision MakingEconomic Basis for Interactions among PeoplePrinciples of the Economy as a WholeMaking Trade-OffsEconomic Analysis
Qualitative Risk AssessmentRisk = Probability × ConsequenceA Generic ProcessMore or Less RiskRisk NarrativesEvidence MapsOrdering TechniquesThe Risk MatrixQualitative Risk Assessment ModelsMCDAA Semiquantitative Risk Assessment Example
The Art and Practice of Risk Assessment ModelingTypes of ModelsA Model-Building ProcessSimulation ModelsRequired Skill Sets
Probability ReviewTwo Schools of ThoughtProbability EssentialsHow Do We Get Probabilities?Working with ProbabilitiesWhy You Need to Know This
Choosing a Probability DistributionGraphical ReviewStrategy for Selecting a Probability DistributionExample 1Example 2A Dozen Useful Probability Distributions for Risk Assessors
Probability ElicitationProbability WordsSubjective ProbabilityWhen to Do an ElicitationMaking Judgments under UncertaintyResponding to HeuristicsThe Elicitation ProtocolCalibrationMultiple Experts
Monte Carlo ProcessBackgroundA Two-Step ProcessHow Many Iterations?Sampling MethodAn Illustration
Probabilistic Scenario AnalysisCommon ScenariosTypes of Scenario AnalysisScenario ComparisonsTools for Constructing ScenariosAdding Probability to the ScenariosAn Example
Sensitivity AnalysisQualitative Sensitivity AnalysisQuantitative Sensitivity AnalysisThe Point
Presenting and Using Assessment ResultsUnderstand Your Assessment Output Data Before You Explain ItExamine the QuantitiesExamine the ProbabilitiesExamine RelationshipsAnswer the QuestionsVisualization of DataDecision Making under Uncertainty
Message DevelopmentCommunication ModelsThe Need for Message Strategies for Risk CommunicationCrisis CommunicationMessage MappingImpediments to Risk CommunicationDeveloping Risk Communication Messages
Appendix A: The Language of Risk and ISO 31000ISO 31000Enterprise Risk ManagementObservations
Appendix B: Using Palisade’s Decision Tools SuiteTopRank@RISKPrecisionTree
Index

All chapters include an introduction, summary, and references.

Über Autor(innen)

Charles Yoe is a professor of economics at Notre Dame of Maryland University, Baltimore, U.S.A., and an independent risk analysis consultant and trainer. Working extensively for U.S. and other government agencies as a consultant and risk analyst, his wide range of risk experience includes international trade, food safety, natural disasters, public works, homeland security, ecosystem restoration, resource development, navigation, planning, and water resources. As a consultant to private industry, his work includes a discrete but wide variety of concerns. He has trained professionals from more than one hundred countries in risk analysis and conducted customized risk training programs for government agencies and private industry in over two dozen nations.