Abdellaoui Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

1. Auflage 2008
ISBN: 978-3-540-68437-4
Verlag: Springer-Verlag
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 242 Seiten

Autoren/Hrsg.

Abdellaoui, Mohammed

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Preface;5
2;Contents;9
3;Contributors;11
4;Part I;14
5;Uncertainty and Information Modeling;14
5.1;Revealed Ambiguity and Its Consequences: Updating;15
5.1.1;1 Introduction;15
5.1.2;2 Preliminaries ;17
5.1.3;3 Some Derived Concepts;20
5.1.4;4 Revealed Ambiguity and Updating;22
5.1.5;Appendix;25
5.1.6;Notes;30
5.1.7;References;30
5.2;Dynamic Decision Making When Risk Perception Depends on Past Experience;31
5.2.1;1 Introduction;31
5.2.2;2 Behavior at a Point of Time;33
5.2.3;3 Dynamic Choice;36
5.2.4;4 An Insurance Demand Illustration;39
5.2.5;5 Concluding Remarks;43
5.2.6;References;44
5.3;Representation of Conditional Preferences Under Uncertainty;45
5.3.1;1 Introduction;45
5.3.2;2 Axioms;48
5.3.3;3 Representation Results;51
5.3.4;4 Concluding Remark;54
5.3.5;Notes;58
5.3.6;References;58
5.4;Subjective Information in Decision Making and Communication;60
5.4.1;1 Introduction;60
5.4.2;2 Perception ;61
5.4.3;3 Communication ;67
5.4.4;4 Conclusion;72
5.4.5;Notes;72
5.4.6;References;73
6;Risk Modeling;74
6.1;Sensitivity Analysis in Decision Making: A Consistent Approach;75
6.1.1;1 Introduction;75
6.1.2;2 Sensitivity Analysis for Decision Analysis Models with Given Probabilities ;78
6.1.3;3 Sensitivity Analysis with Uncertainty: The Expected Value Problem;88
6.1.4;4 Sensitivity Analysis with Uncertainty: The State of Belief Problem;90
6.1.5;5 Conclusions;93
6.1.6;Notes;94
6.1.7;Appendix 1: Proofs;95
6.1.8;References;98
6.2;Alternation Bias and the Parameterization of Cumulative Prospect Theory;100
6.2.1;1 Introduction;100
6.2.2;2 Local Representativeness Effect;102
6.2.3;3 Application to the St. Petersburg Gamble;102
6.2.4;4 Conclusion;108
6.2.5;Appendix 1: Mathematical Appendix;110
6.2.6;Notes;114
6.2.7;References;114
6.3;Proposing a Normative Basis for the S-Shaped Value Function;117
6.3.1;1 Introduction;117
6.3.2;2 An Evolutionary Rationale for the S-Shaped Value Function;118
6.3.3;3 The Impact of Prospects and Behavior on Fitness;119
6.3.4;4 Deriving the S-Shaped Value/Utility Function;120
6.3.5;5 Discussion;125
6.3.6;Notes;126
6.3.7;References;126
7;Experimental Individual Decision Making;127
7.1;Individual Choice from a Convex Lottery Set: Experimental Evidence;128
7.1.1;1 Introduction;128
7.1.2;2 Experimental Design ;129
7.1.3;3 Theoretical Considerations;130
7.1.4;4 Original and High Stake Experiment ;132
7.1.5;5 Transparency Experiment;136
7.1.6;6 Summary;137
7.1.7;Notes;138
7.1.8;References;139
7.2;Temptations and Dynamic Consistency;143
7.2.1;1 Introduction;143
7.2.2;2 The Theory Tested;144
7.2.3;3 The Experimental Design;145
7.2.4;4 The Data Analysis;147
7.2.5;5 Conclusions;149
7.2.6;Appendix 1The Consent Form, the Instructions and the DebriefingQuestionnaire and Statement;150
7.2.7;I Instructions for the Experiment;151
7.2.8;II Instructions for the Experiment;152
7.2.9;Appendix 2 The Implications of Alternative Mappings from the Indices to the Weightings;155
7.2.10;References;156
7.3;Monty Hall’s Three Doors for Dummies;157
7.3.1;1 Introduction;157
7.3.2;2 The Problem;158
7.3.3;3 The New Experimental Design;159
7.3.4;4 The Experiment;160
7.3.5;5 Discussion;165
7.3.6;6 Conclusion and a Final Remark;166
7.3.7;Notes;167
7.3.8;References;167
7.4;Overconfidence in Predictions as an Effect of Desirability Bias;169
7.4.1;1 Introduction;169
7.4.2;2 Study 1 ;171
7.4.3;3 Study;177
7.4.4;4 Summary and Conclusions;184
7.4.5;References;185
8;Experimental Interactive Decision Making;187
8.1;Granny Versus Game Theorist: Ambiguity in Experimental Games;188
8.1.1;1 Introduction;188
8.1.2;2 Ambiguity in Strategic Games;189
8.1.3;3 Design;193
8.1.4;4 Hypotheses and Results;195
8.1.5;5 Concluding Discussion;204
8.1.6;Appendix 1: Example of Instructions: Treatment gt (Translation);205
8.1.7;Notes;207
8.1.8;References;208
8.2;Guessing Games and People Behaviours: What Can We Learn?;210
8.2.1;1 Introduction;210
8.2.2;2 A Generalisation of the INBR Strategy to a Game with Interior Equilibria;212
8.2.3;3 Aim and Setting of the Experiment;214
8.2.4;4 Results and Interpretation ;215
8.2.5;5 Conclusions;219
8.2.6;Notes;221
8.2.7;References;222
8.3;The Determinants of Individual Behaviour in Network Formation: Some Experimental Evidence;223
8.3.1;1 Introduction;223
8.3.2;2 The Experimental Design ;225
8.3.3;3 Results;229
8.3.4;4 Conclusions;241
8.3.5;Appendix 1: Instructions (English Translation);241
8.3.6;Notes;244
8.3.7;References;245