Abdellaoui / Munier Uncertainty and Risk

Mental, Formal, Experimental Representations
1. Auflage 2007
ISBN: 978-3-540-48935-1
Verlag: Springer-Verlag
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 308 Seiten

Autoren/Hrsg.

Abdellaoui, Mohammed

Munier, Bertrand

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Contents;5
2;Introduction;7
3;Foundations;12
3.1;Conjectures, Refutations and Discoveries: Incorporating New Knowledge in Models of Belief and Choice under Uncertainty;13
3.2;When an Event Makes a Difference;30
3.3;Countable Additivity and the Foundations of Bayesian Statistics;36
3.4;On the Quantification and Decomposition of Uncertainty;43
4;The Importance of Representational Tools in Understanding Behaviour Under Uncertainty and Risk;62
4.1;Preference for Diversification with Similarity Considerations;63
4.2;Uncertainty Improves the Second-Best;84
4.3;Lorenz Meets Rating but Misses Valuation;100
4.4;A Deeper Look at Hyperbolic Discounting;123
5;The Assessment of Several Alternative Decision Rules;149
5.1;Take-the-Best” and Other Simple Strategies: Why and When They Work Well with Binary Cues;150
5.2;On Generalized Secretary Problems;183
5.3;Voting on Alternatives or on Criteria? The Meta- Decision on Group Decision Procedures;202
6;Models of Risk Attitude Modelling and Methodological Issues;215
6.1;Probabilistic Risk Analysis Versus Decision Analysis: Similarities, Differences and Illustrations;216
6.2;A Conjoint Measurement Based Rationale for Inducing Preferences;236
6.3;Active Search for Probability Information and Recall Performance: Is Probability an Outstanding Element in the Mental Representation of Risky Decisions?;254
6.4;Evolutionary Analysis of Risk Attitudes in Competitive Bidding Environments Using Simulation;268
6.5;Behavior in Risky Decisions: Focus on Risk Defusing;284