Ali Why Vote Green 2015

The Essential Guide
1. Auflage 2015
ISBN: 978-1-84954-881-6
Verlag: Biteback Publishing
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: 6 - ePub Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, Band 5, 176 Seiten

Reihe: Why Vote

The recent groundswell of support for the Greens has made them something of a dark horse in British politics. Will the party build on Caroline Lucas's 2010 breakthrough and convince the electorate that they will govern for more than just the environment? Deputy leader Shahrar Ali recruits some of the Greens' leading thinkers and activists to explore how the party provides a credible left-wing alternative to Labour in 2015. Setting out the party's key policies, commitments and ambitions, Why Vote Green 2015 creates a compelling case for the Greens as a party of government, and will prove invaluable in helping you decide where to place your vote.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Ali, Shahrar

Leseproben

Chapter 2

Climate Change

DAVID FLINT

We need to act now to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, for those consequences would be a catastrophe for our civilisation and our species – and for many other species too. Climate change is the most serious threat we face – much more dangerous than Ebola or terrorism.

Fortunately, we know what we have to do and it is possible. We also know that the side effects of doing it will be good for most of the world’s people – 99 per cent or more will gain improved health and well-being.

Only the Greens truly understand the problem and only the Greens are determined to fix it. If climate change is high on your agenda and if you want an evidence-based approach to our future, you should vote Green.

Major threat

The work of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is probably the largest and most rigorous examination of a scientific issue ever. That work has continued for twenty-eight years, has produced a series of authoritative reports and was recognised by the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2007. The most recent report of 2014 – the work of 830 scientists – concluded: ‘Continued emission of greenhouse gases will … [increase] the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.’

Climate change will degrade the environment, drive species to extinction, reduce food production, destroy lives and livelihoods and increase migration.

The greenhouse gases (GHGs) that we emit in our everyday lives, and which are emitted by farms and factories in supporting those lives, have already caused such changes. Nothing can now prevent more change, since the momentum is already present in the climate system.

Temperature rise

Degrees

To date

0.75

Now inevitable

1.5

At which catastrophic changes are more likely than not

2.0

Likely by 2050 if we carry on as we are

1.9

If we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the current rate then we will reach the point of catastrophic change by the middle of this century.

Primer on climate change

At its most basic level, the sun warms the Earth and greenhouse gases block the loss of some of that heat to space, causing the sea and land to grow warmer. The main greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, which is produced when we burn coal, wood, oil, gas and other fuels. It’s also produced as a by-product of certain industrial processes, notably cement production. Methane, another important greenhouse gas, is released by rotting vegetation and as a by-product of the digestive processes of cows, i.e. as cow belches.

The seas and forests naturally absorb these gases without harm provided the quantities are not too great. The quantities first became too great in about 1920 and have increased substantially since then. In addition, we have reduced the area of forest available to absorb the gases. Atmospheric CO2 has risen continuously since then. In 1987, it exceeded 350 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in at least 800,000 years. In April 2014, it exceeded 400 ppm for the first time and stayed above 400 for three months.1

The main drivers for these sustained yet unsustainable increases are the growth in the numbers and prosperity of the human species. In the last 150 years, hundreds of millions have escaped from poverty to enjoy lives unimagined by our ancestors; lives in which leisure, travel and meat are commonplace while hunger, illness and fear are rare. But the increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases make the planet warmer, raise sea levels and make the sea more acidic, and the more gases there are, the greater the effect.

Environmental degradation

Climate change is already producing visible changes. It has:

• Increased global air and sea temperatures by about 0.85°C so far

• Raised sea level at 2 mm per annum

• Reduced the summer volume of Arctic ice by 62 per cent since 19802

• Caused most glaciers to shrink significantly

• Increased the acidity of the seas by 26 per cent3

• Increased the frequency of heatwaves, droughts and heavy downpours

If we continue to emit GHGs at the present rate – the business-as-usual scenario – we may expect by 2100:

• A temperature rise of 3–5.5°C4

• A sea-level rise of 60 to 95 cm

• Further shrinkage in glaciers, with a volume loss up to 85 per cent

• Much more extreme weather

We also expect several ‘positive feedback’ effects to kick in. Here are two:

• Higher temperatures will cause even faster loss of the Arctic ice. Since open water absorbs four times as much sunlight as ice, the rate of Arctic warming will be increased.

• Right across the lands next to the higher temperatures, permafrost will melt (permafrost is frost that never melts – until now) releasing methane from rotting vegetation that has been trapped under the frost.

The quantities of methane are very uncertain but might be comparable in climatic effect to the total amount of CO2 released so far. Therefore the effects of climate change could be much worse than current IPCC projections. They are unlikely to be better.

Species extinction

Many species are threatened by loss of habitat; pesticide use, poaching and climate change will add to the pressures. According to the IPCC, ‘A large fraction of species face increased extinction risk due to climate change during and beyond the twenty-first century.’

As temperatures increase, many species will need to move, generally away from the equator or to higher ground, to find a suitable habitat. Most plants, small mammals and freshwater molluscs will be unable to move fast enough. Others will find their movements blocked by rivers, mountains or other natural features or by human fences and settlements. In addition, marine organisms will suffer from reduced oxygen and increased acidification.

Reduced food production

Climate change is likely to reduce food production after 2030. Droughts, storms and higher temperatures will reduce yields while rising sea levels will reduce the area under cultivation, according to the IPCC.

Of course, it’s very likely that the rest of this century will see better crop varieties and farming methods, which will tend to increase yields. Unfortunately, this effect must be set against both the increasing demand for food, and especially for meat, from major developing countries like India and China and the land used for crops grown to produce biofuels, as well as the damage done by climate change. It’s very unlikely that it can do all of that.5

The most likely long-term outcome will be increased demand and stagnant production, leading to increased competition and higher prices. Inevitably, the main losers will be the poorest people.

Effect on lives

Climate change will be – already is – deadly. The European heatwave of 2003 is estimated to have killed 70,000 people.6 For the Somalian famine of 2010 to 2012, the estimate is 260,000. Though neither was due solely to climate change, they were both made more likely by it – and they show two aspects of a hotter world.

In the north of Kenya we see another example. Here the desert has expanded at the expense of pasture – and the pasture at the expense of cropland. Many herders and farmers have left their families to seek work in the cities. Around the world there are many other communities whose way of life, and even survival, is threatened by climate change.

What will happen to the people as the seas rise, the glaciers retreat and deserts spread? Many, of course, will starve. Others will try to move but, like the endangered species, will often find their paths blocked by natural or man-made obstacles, such as national borders.

What happens next is beyond sensible prediction, but illegal migration and massive refugee camps are inevitable. As tensions rise – often reinforced by national and religious differences – wars for water and land are bound to follow. Some, at least, will occur in and around existing conflicts such as Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and Kashmir. It’s sobering to remember that both sides in the Kashmir dispute possess nuclear weapons. Even without nuclear war, some weak states may collapse – as Somalia did after 1991.

Effect on UK

Climate change will be bad for the UK too. One lesson of winter 2013/14 is that we need to sharply increase what we spend on flood defences. The other effects of climate change will clearly demand additional spending on defence, amelioration and compensation. Some important wetlands will be lost to the sea, together with the birds and other animals that live there. It will also disrupt the lifecycles of a variety of animals, in ways that are largely unpredictable.

The UK cannot feed its population from its own resources and must therefore import food. Rising food prices will make this progressively more expensive and some favourite foods, such as coffee and chocolate, may become very expensive. The UK government has seen climate change as a threat to UK national security for some years. In 2008, the National Security Strategy said that ‘climate change is potentially the greatest challenge to global stability and security, and...