Barbi / Bongaarts / Vaupel How Long Do We Live?

Demographic Models and Reflections on Tempo Effects
2008
ISBN: 978-3-540-78520-0
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 284 Seiten

Reihe: Demographic Research Monographs

This book reviews the debate on how best to measure period longevity. Leading experts in demography critically examine the existence of the tempo effect in mortality, present extensions and applications, and compare period and cohort longevity measures.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Barbi, Elisabetta

Bongaarts, John

Vaupel, James W.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Foreword;6
2;Contents;9
3;How long do we live? Demographic models and reflections on tempo effects: An introduction;14
3.1;1 Background;14
3.2;2 Overview of the monograph;16
3.3;References;21
4;I. Theoretical basis for the mortality tempo effect;22
4.1;Estimating mean lifetime;23
4.1.1;1 Methods;24
4.1.2;2 Results;27
4.1.3;3 Conclusion;35
4.1.4;Acknowledgements;36
4.1.5;References;36
4.1.6;Appendix A;37
4.1.7;Appendix B;38
4.2;The quantum and tempo of life-cycle events;40
4.2.1;1 Introduction;40
4.2.2;2 Background: age-specific event rates;41
4.2.3;3 Period quantum and tempo measures of the 2nd kind;43
4.2.4;4 Period quantum and tempo measures of the 1st kind;57
4.2.5;5 Conclusion;67
4.2.6;References;69
4.2.7;Appendix A: Relationship between the completed fertility rate and the weighted average of tempo-adjusted period total fertility rates;73
4.2.8;Appendix B: Comparison of measures of the 1st and 2nd kind;74
5;II. Critiques, extensions and applications of the mortality tempo effect;77
5.1;Demographic translation and tempo effects: An accelerated failure time perspective;78
5.1.1;1 Introduction;78
5.1.2;2 Fertility;80
5.1.3;3 Mortality;88
5.1.4;4 Discussion;98
5.1.5;Acknowledgments;100
5.1.6;References;100
5.2;Lifesaving, lifetimes and lifetables;102
5.2.1;1 Introduction;102
5.2.2;2 How saving a life alters life expectancy;104
5.2.3;3 Individual lifetimes;106
5.2.4;4 The triangle of turbulence;108
5.2.5;5 How large is the distortion?;109
5.2.6;6 Considerations about true life expectancy;110
5.2.7;7 A model of stretched lifetimes;112
5.2.8;8 Quantum and tempo vs. proportions and increments;112
5.2.9;9 Directions for research;113
5.2.10;Acknowledgements;115
5.2.11;References;116
5.3;Tempo and its tribulations;117
5.3.1;1 Tempo;117
5.3.2;2 Measures;119
5.3.3;3 Representation of M;121
5.3.4;4 The moving average;124
5.3.5;5 Period counts of deaths;127
5.3.6;6 Current latent conditions;128
5.3.7;7 Total fertility;131
5.3.8;References;135
5.4;Tempo effects in mortality: An appraisal;137
5.4.1;1 Introduction;137
5.4.2;2 The existence of tempo e.ects in mortality;139
5.4.3;3 Bongaarts and Feeney’s tempo-adjusted life expectancy;142
5.4.4;4 Evaluating Bongaarts and Feeney’s proportionality assumption;143
5.4.5;5 Bongaarts and Feeney’s de.nition of changes in period mortality conditions;147
5.4.6;6 Assessing indicators of period mortality conditions;152
5.4.7;7 Conclusion;157
5.4.8;Acknowledgments;158
5.4.9;References;158
5.5;Increments to life and mortality tempo;161
5.5.1;1 Time-discrete increments to life;161
5.5.2;2 Empirical results: Swedish females, 1751-2002;162
5.5.3;3 Time-continuous cohort-indexed increments to life;163
5.5.4;4 Time-continuous period-indexed increments to life;166
5.5.5;5 Relation between cohort and period increments to life;167
5.5.6;6 Robustness of the Bongaarts-Feeney tempo adjustment formula;170
5.5.7;7 Increments to life and mortality tempo: mixed models;171
5.5.8;8 Conclusion;172
5.5.9;Acknowledgements;173
5.5.10;References;173
5.6;Mortality tempo versus removal of causes of mortality: Opposite views leading to different estimations of life expectancy;174
5.6.1;1 Introduction;174
5.6.2;2 Decreasing mortality as a sign of delay in deaths;175
5.6.3;3 Decreasing mortality as a change in the causes of death;177
5.6.4;4 Removing one cause of death: deeper insights;178
5.6.5;5 A numerical example of the two methods;179
5.6.6;6 Which life table is the reference table?;181
5.6.7;7 Unifying the two views: the repartition function of the delays by age and duration;183
5.6.8;8 Which is the best model? A discussion of the two methods;185
5.6.9;References;189
5.6.10;Appendix A: Deaths and survivors of age x in t after the removal of a mortality cause in t = 0;189
5.6.11;Appendix B: Demonstrating the strong properties of the two methods;191
5.6.12;Appendix C: Fixed and variable delays;194
5.7;Tempo effect on age-specific death rates;197
5.7.1;1 Introduction;197
5.7.2;2 Intuitive visual explanation;198
5.7.3;3 Mathematical presentation;201
5.7.4;4 Discussion;203
5.7.5;Acknowledgments;205
5.7.6;References;205
5.7.7;Appendix;206
5.8;Mortality tempo-adjustment: Theoretical considerations and an empirical application;208
5.8.1;1 Introduction;208
5.8.2;2 How mortality tempo a.ects period life expectancy;211
5.8.3;3 Why life expectancy di.erences between western and eastern Germany call for tempo-adjustment;215
5.8.4;4 Trends in tempo-adjusted life expectancy in western and eastern Germany;220
5.8.5;5 Discussion;223
5.8.6;References;229
5.8.7;Appendix;234
6;III. Comparison of period and cohort measures of longevity;239
6.1;Five period measures of longevity;240
6.1.1;1 Introduction;240
6.1.2;2 Definitions of period longevity measures;241
6.1.3;3 Results;242
6.1.4;4 Discussion;244
6.1.5;5 Conclusion;247
6.1.6;Acknowledgements;247
6.1.7;References;247
6.2;Found in translation? A cohort perspective on tempo-adjusted life expectancy;249
6.2.1;1 Introduction;249
6.2.2;2 Proof of exact cohort translation;251
6.2.3;3 Discussion;253
6.2.4;4 Conclusion;259
6.2.5;Acknowledgements;260
6.2.6;References;260
7;IV. Conclusions;262
7.1;Afterthoughts on the mortality tempo effect;263
7.1.1;1 Do tempo adjusted period longevity measures reflect current mortality conditions?;263
7.1.2;2 Conclusion;268
7.1.3;References;269
7.2;Turbulence in lifetables: Demonstration by four simple examples;270
7.2.1;1 Introduction;270
7.2.2;2 Saving infant lives for one year;271
7.2.3;3 Saving infant lives for three years;273
7.2.4;4 Saving infant lives for two years on average;273
7.2.5;5 Saving everyone’s life for one year;274
7.2.6;6 Discussion;277
7.2.7;Acknowledgements;278
8;Appendix;279
8.1;Two proofs of a recent formula by Griffith Feeney;280
8.1.1;1 Introduction;280
8.1.2;2 Proof by Jutta Gampe;280
8.1.3;3 Proof by Anatoli Yashin;281
8.1.4;References;281