Barth / Tatom / Yago China's Emerging Financial Markets

Challenges and Opportunities
1. Auflage 2009
ISBN: 978-0-387-93769-4
Verlag: Springer
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, Band 8, 658 Seiten

Reihe: The Milken Institute Series on Financial Innovation and Economic Growth

China's emerging financial markets reflect the usual contrast between the country's measured approach toward policy, regulatory, and market reform, and the dynamic pace of rapid economic growth and development. But they also offer unusual challenges and opportunities. In the past five years, the pace of opening and reform has accelerated sharply. Recapitalization and partial privatization of the largest banks, and the allowance of some joint venture and branch operations for foreign financial institutions, are making rapid headway in developing and expanding financial services and improving access to domestic business and households. This book provides the most extensive look available at the evolving Chinese financial system. It begins with alternative perspectives on the evolution of the financial system and the broad outlines of its prospects and potential contribution to economic growth. Three articles review broad aspects of the financial system. Franklin Allen, Jun ''QJ'' Qian, Meijun Qian, and Mengxin Zhao lead off with overviews of the banking system and performance of the equity market and other institutions.

James R. Barth,  his research focuses on financial institutions and capital markets, both domestic and global, with special emphasis on regulatory issues. He recently headed up an international team advising the People's Bank of China on financial reform. John A. Tatom, has more than 30 years of research and management experience in domestic and international financial markets and monetary policy, including as a Federal Reserve official and policy adviser, and head of emerging market research and country risk for an international bank. His research focuses on policy and influences on international capital markets and economic capacity.  Glen Yago, specializes in financial innovations, financial institutions and capital markets, and has extensively analyzed public policy and its relation to high-yield

Autoren/Hrsg.

Yago, Glenn

Barth, James R.

Tatom, John A.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;About the Editors;5
2;Preface;8
3;Contents;12
4;About the Milken Institute;15
5;Contributors;16
6;Part 1: Overview of the Chinese Financial System;19
6.1;A Review of China’s Financial System and Initiatives for the Future;20
6.1.1;1 Introduction;20
6.1.2;2 Overview of China’s Financial System;23
6.1.2.1;2.1 A Brief Review of the History of China’s Financial System;23
6.1.2.2;2.2 Size and Efficiency of the Financial System: Banks, Markets, and Alternative Finance;26
6.1.3;3 The Banking and Intermediation Sector;32
6.1.3.1;3.1 Aggregate Evidence on Bank Deposits and Loans;32
6.1.3.2;3.2 The Problem of NPLs and Possible Solutions;36
6.1.3.2.1;3.2.1 Comparing NPLs;36
6.1.3.2.2;3.2.2 Reducing NPLs and Improving the Efficiency of State-Owned Banks;42
6.1.3.3;3.3 Growth of Non-state Financial Intermediaries;45
6.1.4;4 Financial Markets;47
6.1.4.1;4.1 Stock Exchanges and Market Inefficiencies;49
6.1.4.2;4.2 Overview of Bond Markets;52
6.1.4.3;4.3 Evidence on the Listed Sector;56
6.1.4.4;4.4 Real Estate Market;61
6.1.4.5;4.5 Private Equity/Venture Capital and the Funding of New Industries;63
6.1.4.6;4.6 Asset Management Industries;64
6.1.4.7;4.7 Further Development of Financial Markets;67
6.1.4.7.1;4.7.1 Improve Regulations;67
6.1.4.7.2;4.7.2 Sale of Government Shares in Listed Firms;68
6.1.4.7.3;4.7.3 Encourage Listing of Firms from the Hybrid Sector;69
6.1.4.7.4;4.7.4 Train More Professionals;69
6.1.4.7.5;4.7.5 Encourage the Development of Institutional Investors;70
6.1.4.7.6;4.7.6 Develop More Financial Products and Markets;70
6.1.5;5 The Non-standard Financial Sector and Evidence on Hybrid Sector Firms;71
6.1.5.1;5.1 Comparison of Hybrid Sector vs. State and Listed Sectors;71
6.1.5.2;5.2 Survey Evidence;74
6.1.5.3;5.3 Discussion on How the Non-standard Financial Sector Works;74
6.1.6;6 Financial Crises;78
6.1.6.1;6.1 Banking Crises and Market Crashes;79
6.1.6.2;6.2 Capital Account Liberalization, Currency Float, and Twin Crisis;80
6.1.6.2.1;6.2.1 Liberalization of the Capital Account and Financial Sector;81
6.1.6.2.2;6.2.2 Currency Crisis and Banking Crisis (A Twin Crisis);82
6.1.6.2.3;6.2.3 Financial Contagion;82
6.1.7;7 Summary and Concluding Remarks;84
6.1.8;References;85
6.2;The Transformation of China from an Emerging Economy to a Global Powerhouse;90
6.2.1;1 Introduction;90
6.2.2;2 An Overview of China’s Economy and Financial System;92
6.2.3;3 Contributors to China’s Economic Growth;96
6.2.4;4 China’s Integration into the World Economy;98
6.2.5;5 The Structure, Performance, and Risks of China’s Financial System;109
6.2.6;6 Summary and Conclusions;121
6.2.7;7 Appendix 1: China’s International Investment Position, 2006 and 2007;122
6.2.8;References;124
6.3;China’s Financial Sector: Contributions to Growth and Downside Risks;128
6.3.1;1 China’s Changing Market-Based Financial System, 1978-2006;129
6.3.2;2 China’s Publicly Directed Financial System;132
6.3.3;3 Evaluating the Effectiveness of China’s Financial System;134
6.3.4;4 Risks to China’s Financial System;136
6.3.5;5 Current Reforms and China’s Ultimate Finance Challenge;140
7;Part 2: Monetary Policy and the Foreign Exchange Market;143
7.1;Monetary Policy Implementation in China: Past, Present, and Prospects;144
7.1.1;1 Backdrop For Monetary Policy Implementation In China;145
7.1.2;2 China’s Practice of Monetary Policy: Past and Present;150
7.1.2.1;2.1 The Practice of Monetary Targeting in China;150
7.1.2.2;2.2 Systemic Liquidity Management in China;153
7.1.2.2.1;2.2.1 Monetary Policy Instruments;153
7.1.2.2.2;2.2.2 Money and Foreign Exchange Markets Development;158
7.1.2.2.3;2.2.3 Interest Rate Liberalization;159
7.1.3;3 The Way Forward;160
7.1.3.1;3.1 Money as an Intermediate Target: Empirical Evidence for China;161
7.1.3.1.1;3.1.1 Xie (2004);161
7.1.3.1.2;3.1.2 Geiger (2006);161
7.1.3.1.3;3.1.3 Green and Chang (2006);162
7.1.3.1.4;3.1.4 Laurens and Maino (2007);162
7.1.3.2;3.2 Obstacles to Reliance on Interest Rates as an Operating Target in China;165
7.1.3.2.1;3.2.1 Interest Rate Transmission Channel;165
7.1.3.2.2;3.2.2 Monetary Frameworks and Instruments;166
7.1.3.3;3.3 Strengthening China’s Strategic Framework;167
7.1.3.4;3.4 Strengthening China’s Operational Framework;168
7.1.4;4 Conclusions;169
7.1.5;Appendix 1 The Degree of Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices;170
7.1.6;Appendix 2 Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: An SVAR Analysis;172
7.1.7;Appendix 3 Modeling Money Demand in China;174
7.1.8;Appendix 4 The Case for Using the Interest Rate as the Operating Procedure;176
7.1.9;Appendix 5 The Evolving Role of Money: The ECB’s Monetary Policy Strategy;178
7.1.10;References;179
7.2;The China Monetary Policy Handbook;181
7.2.1;1 Overview and Summary;181
7.2.2;2 The Backdrop;184
7.2.2.1;2.1 The Financial System - A Work in Progress;184
7.2.2.2;2.2 The Role of the State;185
7.2.2.3;2.3 The Rise of the Market;186
7.2.2.4;2.4 Financial Market Underdevelopment;189
7.2.2.5;2.5 Defining Our Terms: What Do We Mean by ‘‘Market-Based’’ Monetary Policy?;191
7.2.2.6;2.6 A Review of Developed Country Experience;192
7.2.3;3 Interest Rates;193
7.2.3.1;3.1 Why Does China Have Interest Rate Controls?;197
7.2.3.2;3.2 How the System Works - And Which Rates to Watch;198
7.2.3.3;3.3 Does the PBC Use Policy Rates?;204
7.2.3.4;3.4 Why Does Not China Use Interest Rate Tools More Aggressively?;207
7.2.3.5;3.5 Are Interest Rates ‘‘Too Low’’?;208
7.2.4;4 Quantitative Measures;211
7.2.4.1;4.1 Money Base Targeting;213
7.2.4.2;4.2 Administrative Controls;215
7.2.4.3;4.3 Are Not Administrative Controls Distortionary?;217
7.2.4.4;4.4 Can China Really Control Credit at All?;219
7.2.4.5;4.5 What About M2 and M3?;220
7.2.5;5 The Open Economy - Capital Controls, Exchange Rates, and Sterilization;221
7.2.5.1;5.1 Fixed Exchange Rates and Domestic Monetary Policy;221
7.2.5.2;5.2 A Short Primer on Sterilization;223
7.2.5.3;5.3 How Long Can It Last?;226
7.2.5.4;5.4 Interest Rates;227
7.2.5.5;5.5 The Capital Account;229
7.2.5.6;5.6 A Closer Look at Capital Account Restrictions;230
7.2.5.7;5.7 Size Matters;237
7.2.5.8;5.8 China and the Fed;238
7.2.5.9;5.9 Is There a ‘‘Negative Equity’’ Threat?;239
7.2.6;6 Reserve Requirements;240
7.2.6.1;6.1 The Cost to Banks;245
7.2.6.2;6.2 China’s Misleading Loan-Deposit Ratios;246
7.2.6.3;6.3 How High Is Too High?;247
7.2.6.4;6.4 Where Does It End?;248
7.2.7;7 Asset Prices and Monetary Policy;249
7.2.7.1;7.1 What Drives the Market?;250
7.2.7.2;7.2 The Real Story;254
7.2.7.3;7.3 What This Means for the PBC;256
7.2.7.4;7.4 China’s Two Liquidities;257
7.2.7.5;7.5 The M1 Myth;258
7.2.7.6;7.6 The Bank Deposit Myth;260
7.2.7.7;7.7 What About Property Assets?;261
7.2.7.8;7.8 Why No Property Bubble?;265
7.2.8;8 The Way Forward;267
7.2.8.1;8.1 Where Could It Go Wrong?;270
7.2.9;9 Required Disclosures;278
7.2.10;Further Reading;278
7.2.11;References;278
7.3;The RMB Debate and International Influences on China’s Money and Financial Markets*;280
7.3.1;1 Introduction;281
7.3.2;2 Sense and Nonsense in the RMB Debate;282
7.3.3;3 International Influences on China’s Money and Financial Markets;289
7.3.3.1;3.1 Evolution of China’s Balance of Payment Accounts;289
7.3.3.1.1;3.1.1 The Composition of China’s Current Account;290
7.3.3.1.2;3.1.2 The Composition of China’s Capital Account;291
7.3.3.2;3.2 Monetary Sterilization Policies in China;293
7.3.3.2.1;3.2.1 Open Market Operations;296
7.3.3.2.2;3.2.2 Legal Reserve Requirement Ratio;296
7.3.3.2.3;3.2.3 Interest Rate Policy and Market-Based Interest Rate Reform;296
7.3.3.2.4;3.2.4 Window Guidance;301
7.3.3.2.5;3.2.5 Capital Controls;301
7.3.3.2.6;3.2.6 Estimating the Extent of Sterilization in China;301
7.3.3.3;3.3 RMB Appreciation Expectations and Their Influence on China’s International Capital Flows and Stock Markets;303
7.3.4;4 Concluding Comments;310
7.3.5;References;311
7.4;The United States-China Currency Dispute: Is a Rise in the Yuan Necessary, Inevitable, or Desirable?;313
7.4.1;1 The US Trade Deficit and China;315
7.4.2;2 Could Yuan Appreciation Solve the US Current Account Imbalance?;317
7.4.3;3 What About a Generalized Dollar Depreciation?;319
7.4.4;4 The Costs of the Managed Float;320
7.4.5;5 What Is the ‘‘Right’’ Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate?;322
7.4.6;6 Conclusion;324
7.4.7;References;324
7.5;New Estimation of the Renminbi Regime;325
7.5.1;1 The New Regime;326
7.5.2;2 The Old Technique;327
7.5.3;3 The Old Results;330
7.5.4;4 Updated Results with Daily Data, Using the Traditional Technique;331
7.5.5;5 The New Technique;333
7.5.6;6 New Estimation;334
7.5.7;7 Conclusions Regarding the Recent Chinese Exchange Rate Regime;336
7.5.8;8 Appendix: Estimation of Weights with Daily Exchange Rate Data, but Without EMP Variable;337
7.5.9;References;341
7.6;The Chinese Imbalance in Capital Flows;343
7.6.1;1 The Chinese Trade Imbalance;345
7.6.2;2 The Capital Account Imbalance;347
7.6.2.1;2.1 China’s Capital and Foreign Exchange Transactions;347
7.6.3;3 Potential Remedies;351
7.6.4;4 Summary and Conclusions;357
7.6.5;References;359
7.7;Some Issues Regarding China’s Foreign Reserves;361
7.7.1;1 Introduction;361
7.7.2;2 Are China’s Foreign Reserves Excessive?;364
7.7.2.1;2.1 Reserves-to-Import Ratio;364
7.7.2.2;2.2 Reserves-to-Short-Term External Debt Ratio;365
7.7.2.3;2.3 Bank of Korea Benchmark;365
7.7.2.4;2.4 Reserves-to-M2 Ratio;367
7.7.2.5;2.5 Claremont Measures of Reserve Adequacy;368
7.7.3;3 Why So Much?;371
7.7.4;4 Investment of Foreign Reserves;372
7.7.5;5 Conclusions;376
7.7.6;References;376
8;Part 3: The Banking System;378
8.1;Institutional Development, Ownership Structure, and Business Strategies: A New Era in the Chinese Banking Industry;379
8.1.1;1 Introduction;379
8.1.2;2 Structural Change in Chinese Banking: Post 1990s;382
8.1.2.1;2.1 Historical Background;382
8.1.2.2;2.2 Product and Geographical Diversification Restrictions;382
8.1.2.3;2.3 Institutional Development;383
8.1.3;3 Related Literature;384
8.1.4;4 Sample and Methodology;386
8.1.4.1;4.1 Sample;386
8.1.4.2;4.2 Ownership Dummies;387
8.1.4.3;4.3 Focus Indices;389
8.1.4.4;4.4 Institutional Variables;391
8.1.4.5;4.5 Efficiency Measures;394
8.1.5;5 Empirical Results;395
8.1.6;6 Conclusions;408
8.1.7;References;409
8.2;China’s Nonperforming Loans: A $540 Billion Problem Unsolved;412
8.2.1;1 Introduction;412
8.2.2;2 How Nonperforming Loans Became a Threat to China’s Financial System;413
8.2.2.1;2.1 A Short History of China’s Banking Sector, 1978-2003;413
8.2.2.2;2.2 Sources of NPLs Prior to 2000;415
8.2.3;3 Asset Management Corporations: Who Are They, Why Were They Established, and What Is the Progress They Have Made in NPL Disposal?;415
8.2.3.1;3.1 AMCs and Their Mandate;415
8.2.3.2;3.2 Funding Sources for NPL Purchases;417
8.2.3.3;3.3 NPL Sales to Foreign Investors;419
8.2.3.4;3.4 Current Status of China’s NPLs;420
8.2.4;4 Estimating Total Outstanding NPLs in China’s Financial System;421
8.2.4.1;4.1 Commercial Banks;422
8.2.4.2;4.2 Other Financial Institutions;423
8.2.4.3;4.3 Asset Management Corporations;424
8.2.4.4;4.4 People’s Bank of China;425
8.2.5;5 Summary;426
8.2.6;6 The NPL Problem in Perspective;428
8.2.7;7 Appendix;429
8.2.8;References;430
8.3;The Evolution of Bank Lending Patterns in China: A Post-1994 Province-By-Province Analysis;432
8.3.1;1 Introduction;432
8.3.2;2 State-Owned Commercial Bank Lending Practices;433
8.3.3;3 Disaggregated Province-by-Province Analysis;442
8.3.4;4 Conclusions;452
8.3.5;5 Appendix;453
8.3.6;References;454
8.4;Determinants of Location Choice of Foreign Banks Within China: Evidence from Cities;457
8.4.1;1 Introduction;457
8.4.2;2 History of Foreign Banks in China;459
8.4.3;3 Literature Review;460
8.4.4;4 Empirical Models;461
8.4.5;5 Data and Sample;463
8.4.5.1;5.1 Data Sources;463
8.4.5.2;5.2 Descriptive Statistics;468
8.4.6;6 Empirical Results;476
8.4.6.1;6.1 Benchmark Model;476
8.4.6.2;6.2 Conditional Model;478
8.4.7;7 Conclusion and Discussion;478
8.4.8;References;479
8.5;Financial Institutions’ Lending and Real Estate Property Prices in China;483
8.5.1;1 Introduction;483
8.5.2;2 Background;484
8.5.3;3 Commercial Banks’ Role in the Real Estate Market;485
8.5.4;4 Effect of Credit Availability;486
8.5.5;5 Methodology and Data;487
8.5.6;6 Empirical Results;494
8.5.7;7 Conclusion;499
8.5.8;References;500
8.6;Combating Financial Exclusion in China: A Banking Regulatory Perspective;502
8.6.1;1 Farmer Household Financial Services;504
8.6.2;2 Small Enterprise Finance Services;506
8.6.3;3 Rural Credit Cooperative Reforms;508
8.6.4;4 Introduction of New Microfinance Vehicles;510
8.6.5;5 Thoughts on Reducing Financial Exclusion from a Regulatory Perspective;514
8.6.5.1;5.1 Sound Banking Regulatory Structure;514
8.6.5.2;5.2 Promoting Financial Inclusion as a Regulatory Objective;518
8.6.5.3;5.3 Corporate Social Responsibility of Banks;520
8.6.5.4;5.4 A Tiered Regulatory Framework;522
9;Part 4: The Bond and Equity Market;528
9.1;The Chinese Bond Market: Historical Lessons, Present Challenges, and Future Perspectives;529
9.1.1;1 History;531
9.1.1.1;1.1 Qing Dynasty;532
9.1.1.1.1;1.1.1 Government Bonds Issued Overseas;532
9.1.1.1.2;1.1.2 Domestic Government Bonds;533
9.1.1.1.3;1.1.3 Corporate Bonds;533
9.1.1.2;1.2 1911-1949 - The Period of War Lords and the Republic of China;536
9.1.1.2.1;1.2.1 Government Bonds Issued Overseas;536
9.1.1.2.2;1.2.2 Domestic Government Bonds;537
9.1.1.2.3;1.2.3 Corporate Bonds;538
9.1.2;2 The Present State;538
9.1.2.1;2.1 Market Infrastructure;539
9.1.2.2;2.2 Government Bonds Issued Overseas;541
9.1.2.3;2.3 Domestic Government Bonds (Treasury Bonds and Central Bank Bills);542
9.1.2.4;2.4 Corporate Bonds and Corporate Short-Term Bills;544
9.1.2.5;2.5 Policy and Financial Bonds;545
9.1.3;3 The Future;546
9.1.3.1;3.1 Current Challenges;546
9.1.3.1.1;3.1.1 Limited Participation and Lack of Liquidity;546
9.1.3.1.2;3.1.2 Corporate Bond Development;547
9.1.3.1.3;3.1.3 Competition with the Banking Sector and Equity Market;547
9.1.3.2;3.2 Future Outlook;548
9.1.3.2.1;3.2.1 Central Government Bonds;548
9.1.3.2.1.1;Municipal and Local Government Bonds;548
9.1.3.2.2;3.2.2 Corporate Bonds;548
9.1.3.2.3;3.2.3 Asset-Backed and Mortgage-Backed Securities;549
9.1.3.2.4;3.2.4 Fixed-Income Derivatives;550
9.1.3.2.5;3.2.5 Open Up Bond Market to Foreign Investors;550
9.1.4;4 Conclusions;550
9.1.5;References;552
9.2;An Update on China’s Capital Markets: Focus on China’s Securities Industry;553
9.2.1;1 Introduction;553
9.2.2;2 Status of Chinese Capital Markets;555
9.2.2.1;2.1 Equity Market;555
9.2.2.2;2.2 Bond Market;558
9.2.2.3;2.3 Increasing Importance of Institutional Investors;560
9.2.2.4;2.4 Disclosure System Is Largely Adequate, but Implementation May Fall Short;561
9.2.3;3 Status of the Securities Industry;564
9.2.3.1;3.1 Brokerage Business;564
9.2.3.1.1;3.1.1 Market Status;564
9.2.3.1.1.1;Income Depends on Trading Commissions;564
9.2.3.1.1.2;Market Structure Is Dispersed;565
9.2.3.1.1.3;Number of Branches Insufficient and Internet Trading Needs Improvement;565
9.2.3.1.1.4;Competition Still in a Primary Stage;566
9.2.3.1.2;3.1.2 Main Factors Influencing Future Prospects;566
9.2.3.1.2.1;A Trend Moving Toward Financial Holding Companies/Universal Banking;567
9.2.3.1.2.2;Shareholder Base;567
9.2.3.1.2.3;Industry Consolidation of Brokerage Business;568
9.2.3.2;3.2 Investment Banking Business;568
9.2.3.2.1;3.2.1 Market Status;568
9.2.3.2.1.1;Underwriting Business;569
9.2.3.2.1.2;Additional Share Issuance Business;571
9.2.3.2.1.3;Mergers and Acquisitions;571
9.2.3.2.2;3.2.2 Main Factors Influencing Future Prospects;572
9.2.3.2.2.1;Building and Expansion of Multi-layer Markets;572
9.2.3.2.2.2;Reform of Primary Market: Merits Review vs. Registration Systems;573
9.2.3.2.2.3;Competition from Foreign Investment Banks;573
9.2.3.2.2.4;Growth of M&A Business;574
9.2.3.3;3.3 Fixed Income Business;574
9.2.3.3.1;3.3.1 Market Status;574
9.2.3.3.1.1;Primary Market Experiences Rapid Growth, but Security Companies’ Revenue from Credit Products Is Quite Limited;575
9.2.3.3.1.2;Trading Volume in Secondary Market Is Increasing, but Securities Companies’ Market Share Is Relatively Small;575
9.2.3.3.1.3;Securities Companies’ Bond Business Is Relatively Concentrated;576
9.2.3.3.2;3.3.2 Main Factors Influencing Future Prospects;576
9.2.3.3.2.1;Change in Interest Rates;577
9.2.3.3.2.2;Stringent Credit Policy and Competition from Bank Loans;577
9.2.3.3.2.3;Cost of Issuing Equity Versus Issuing Bonds;577
9.2.3.3.2.4;Establishment and Development of a Credit Rating System;578
9.2.3.3.2.5;Guarantees of Corporate and Enterprise Debt;578
9.2.3.4;3.4 Proprietary Trading Business;579
9.2.3.5;3.5 Asset Management Business;580
9.2.4;4 Major Factors Impacting the Development of China’s Capital Markets;581
9.2.4.1;4.1 Movement Toward Financial Holding Companies and Universal Banking;581
9.2.4.2;4.2 Regulatory Regime Maturing But Still Heavily Regulated;582
9.2.4.2.1;4.2.1 Development of Multi-layer (Diversified) Capital Markets;584
9.2.4.2.2;4.2.2 Increasing Importance of Institutional Investors;584
9.2.4.2.3;4.2.3 Foreign Participants in the Capital Markets;584
9.2.5;5 Conclusion;585
9.3;Privatization in China: Experiences and Lessons;587
9.3.1;1 Introduction;587
9.3.2;2 Background of China’s Privatization;588
9.3.3;3 Methods of Privatization in China;590
9.3.3.1;3.1 Privatization with Explicit Changes in Ownership;591
9.3.3.1.1;3.1.1 Management Buy-Outs;591
9.3.3.1.2;3.1.2 Selling to Outsiders;591
9.3.3.2;3.2 Privatization Methods Without Explicit Changes in Ownership;591
9.3.3.2.1;3.2.1 Share Issue Privatization (SIP);591
9.3.3.2.2;3.2.2 Leasing, Joint Venture, and Others;592
9.3.4;4 Characteristics of Firms After Privatization;592
9.3.4.1;4.1 The State Influence;593
9.3.4.2;4.2 Ownership and Incentives;593
9.3.4.3;4.3 Professionalization;595
9.3.5;5 Understanding the Efficiency Gain of China’s Privatization;595
9.3.6;6 Conclusion;596
9.3.7;References;597
9.4;The Emergence of Shareholder Protection in China;599
9.4.1;1 Introduction;599
9.4.2;2 The Emergence of Investor Protection in China;602
9.4.3;3 The Central Government’s Changing Vested Interests in the Stock Market;610
9.4.3.1;3.1 The Increasing Importance of the Stock Market Relative to the Banking Sector;611
9.4.3.2;3.2 The Need to Unload the State Shareholdings;615
9.4.3.3;3.3 The Gradual Privatization of the Listed Companies;618
9.4.4;4 Conclusion;619
9.4.5;References;621
9.5;An Appraisal of the Impacts of Non-tradable Shares Reform on Large Shareholders’ Behavioral Modes of Listed Companies in the A-Share Market;623
9.5.1;1 Introduction;623
9.5.2;2 Theoretical Model;624
9.5.2.1;2.1 Related Literature;624
9.5.2.2;2.2 Theoretical Model;625
9.5.3;3 Empirical Study;628
9.5.3.1;3.1 Model Parameters;628
9.5.3.2;3.2 Data and Descriptive Statement;630
9.5.3.2.1;3.2.1 Regression Result and Analysis;632
9.5.3.2.2;3.2.2 Test of Stability;636
9.5.4;4 Discussion and Conclusion;638
9.5.5;References;639
9.6;Will China Surpass the United States?;641
9.6.1;1 Best-Case Scenario;643
9.6.2;2 Optimistic Case Scenario;644
9.6.3;3 Plausible Case Scenario;645
9.6.4;References;646
10;Index;647