Basar / Pau Dynamic Modelling and Control of National Economies 1983

Proceedings of the 4th IFAC/IFORS/IIASA Conference and the 1983 SEDC Conference on Economic Dynamics and Control, Washington D.C., USA, 17-19 June 1983
1. Auflage 2014
ISBN: 978-1-4831-5331-5
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 488 Seiten, Web PDF

Dynamic Modelling and Control of National Economies 1983 contains the proceedings of the Fourth IFAC/IFORS/IIASA Conference and the 1983 SEDC Conference on Economic Dynamics and Control held at Washington D.C., USA on June17-19, 1983. Separating the 65 papers presented in the conference as chapters, this book covers a broad class of problems or notions arising both in economic theory, control applications to planning, and implementation issues. Some chapters discuss multi-level interactions of government and private sectors in economic development; inflation and economic policy in an open economy; foreign debt and exchange rate stability in a developing country; and expectations in numerical general equilibrium models. This book also explains a rational decision-making process for resource policymaking; inference of the structure of economic reasoning from natural language analysis; modeling and analysis of a national economy; and methodological issues in global modeling. Econometric analysis of the economic effects of population change, aspects of optimal estimation control strategies in econometrics, and optimal policies for interdependent economies are also discussed. This book will be useful to those engaged in economic and control theory research.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Basar, T.

Pau, L. F.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Front Cover;2
2;Dynamic Modelling Andcontrol of National Economies 1983;4
3;Copyright Page;5
4;Table of Contents;8
5;INTRODUCTION;14
5.1;MAIN TOPICS OF THE CONFERENCE;14
5.2;CONCLUSION;15
5.3;REFERENCES;15
6;PART I: PLENARY LECTURE;16
6.1;CHAPTER 1. INTERNATIONAL MODEL BUILDING ANDCOORDINATION OF ECONOMIC POLICIES;16
6.1.1;Keywords.;16
6.1.2;SOME ANALOGIES;16
6.1.3;POLICY COORDINATION;16
6.1.4;COORDINATION OF POLICY - GOOD OR BAD,EFFECTIVE OR INEFFECTIVE?;20
6.1.5;SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS;22
6.1.6;REFERENCE;22
7;PART II: GAME THEORY FOR PLANNING;24
7.1;CHAPTER 2. POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR A LINKED MODEL FOR TWOCOMMON MARKET COUNTRIES;24
7.1.1;Abstract.;24
7.1.2;INTRODUCTION;24
7.1.3;MINI-INTERPLAY;24
7.1.4;FEEDBACK GAME SOLUTIONS;25
7.1.5;CHOICE OF PREFERENCES;26
7.1.6;BARGAINING OR ARBITRATION;27
7.1.7;CONCLUSION;27
7.1.8;REFERENCES;28
7.1.9;APPENDIX 1;28
7.2;CHAPTER 3. OPEN-LOOP NASH STRATEGIES FOR EXTRACTINGEXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCES BY OLIGOPOLISTS;30
7.2.1;Abstract.;30
7.2.2;INTRODUCTION;30
7.2.3;THE MODEL;31
7.2.4;SOLUTION CONCEPT;32
7.2.5;DISCUSSION OF THE MODEL;32
7.2.6;CONCLUSIONS;34
7.2.7;REFERENCES:;35
7.3;CHAPTER 4. MULTI-LEVEL INTERACTIONS OF GOVERNMENT ANDPRIVATE SECTORS IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;38
7.3.1;Abstract.;38
7.3.2;INTRODUCTION;38
7.3.3;PHASE THEORY FORMULATED AS ADIFFERENTIAL GAME;38
7.3.4;SECTOR AUGMENTATION PROCESS;40
7.3.5;CONCLUSION;41
7.3.6;REFERENCES;41
7.4;CHAPTER 5. RIVAL MODELS: MIN-MAX PROBLEMS ANDALGORITHMS;44
7.4.1;Abstract-;44
7.4.2;INTRODUCTION;44
7.4.3;OPTIMISATION WITH RIVAL MODELS;44
7.4.4;A "GAME" BETWEEN TWO MODELS;46
7.4.5;UNCERTAINTY AND MIN-MAX STRATEGIES:WORST CASE POLICY DESIGN WITH AGIVEN MODEL;47
7.4.6;CONTINUOUS AND DISCRETE MIN-MAXPROBLEMS: WORST CASE DESIGN WITHROBUST OBJECTIVE FUNCTIONS ANDRIVAL MODELS;47
7.4.7;ALGORITHMS FOR CONTINUOUS ANDDISCRETE MIN-MAX PROBLEMS;49
7.4.8;CONCLUSIONS;50
7.4.9;ACKNOWLEDGEMENT;50
7.4.10;REFERENCES;50
8;PART III: OPEN ECONOMIES;52
8.1;CHAPTER 6. WAGE CONTRACTING, AND EXCHANGE RATEVOLATILITY*;52
8.1.1;References;53
8.2;CHAPTER 7. INFLATION AND ECONOMIC POLICY IN AN OPENECONOMY: SOME SIMULATIONS WITH A DYNAMICMACROECONOMETRIC MODEL;54
8.2.1;Abstract.;54
8.2.2;INTRODUCTION;54
8.2.3;AN OVERVIEW OF THE MODEL;55
8.2.4;POLICY SIMULATIONS;59
8.2.5;CONCLUSION;60
8.2.6;REFERENCES;61
8.3;CHAPTER 8. FOREIGN DEBT AND EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY IN ADEVELOPING COUNTRY;62
8.3.1;Abstract.;62
8.3.2;INTRODUCTION;62
8.3.3;MODELS;62
8.3.4;RESULTS;63
8.3.5;REFERENCES;64
8.4;CHAPTER 9. OPTIMAL STABILIZATION POLICY IN A MODEL OFELASTICITY DYNAMICS;66
8.4.1;Abstract.;66
8.4.2;INTRODUCTION;66
8.4.3;THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK;67
8.4.4;ACTIVIST FISCAL POLICY WITH ZEROINSTRUMENT COSTS;68
8.4.5;ACTIVIST FISCAL POLICY WITH FINITEINSTRUMENT COSTS;69
8.4.6;REFERENCES;71
9;PART IV: GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELING OFNATIONAL ECONOMIES;72
9.1;CHAPTER 10. EXPECTATIONS IN NUMERICAL GENERALEQUILIBRIUM MODELS;72
9.1.1;Abstract.;72
9.1.2;INTRODUCTION;72
9.1.3;THE STRUCTURE OF EXPECTATIONS;73
9.1.4;SIMULATION RESULTS;75
9.1.5;CONCLUSION;76
9.1.6;REFERENCES;77
9.2;CHAPTER 11. WELFARE MEASURES FOR GENERAL EQUILIBRIUMANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC POLICIES;78
9.2.1;Abstract.;78
9.2.2;INTRODUCTION;78
9.2.3;MONEY METRIC SOCIAL WELFARE;79
9.2.4;EFFICIENCY VERSUS EQUITY;81
9.2.5;REFERENCES;84
9.3;CHAPTER 12. A MODEL OF ENERGY, INTERNATIONAL TRADE ANDCAPITAL FLOWS;86
9.3.1;Abstract.;86
9.3.2;INTRODUCTION;86
9.3.3;MODEL FEATURES;86
9.3.4;NUMERICAL INPUTS AND OUTPUTS;87
9.3.5;MODEL SOLUTION;89
9.3.6;CiJviCLUo LOU6;89
9.3.7;REFERENCES;89
9.4;CHAPTER
13. REAL AND NOMINAL FLOWS IN A COMPUTABLEGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL;92
9.4.1;Abstract;92
9.4.2;Keywords;92
9.4.3;INTRODUCTION;92
9.4.4;REAL AND NOMINAL FLOWSIN A CGE MODEL;93
9.4.5;MICRO-MACRO INTERACTIONS;94
9.4.6;CONCLUSION;97
9.4.7;REFERENCES;97
10;PART V: SIMULATION STUDIES;98
10.1;CHAPTER 14.
ON THE STOCHASTIC CONTROL OF LARGENONLINEAR ECONOMETRIC MODELS;98
10.1.1;Abstract;98
10.1.2;Keywords;98
10.1.3;INTRODUCTION^/;98
10.1.4;ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES USINGLINEARIZED MODEL;99
10.1.5;A LINEARIZED FINAL FORM APPROACH TOIMPLEMENTATION;102
10.1.6;APPLICATION TO A POLICY FORECAST MODEL;103
10.1.7;REFERENCES;104
10.2;CHAPTER 15.
ON THE SENSITIVITY OF OPTIMAL MACROECONOMICPOLICIES TO ECONOMETRIC MODELS: AN EMPIRICALANALYSIS FOR AUSTR;106
10.2.1;Abstract;106
10.2.2;Keywords;106
10.2.3;INTRODUCTION;106
10.2.4;TWO MACROECONOMETRIC MODELS FORAUSTRIA;106
10.2.5;OPTIMIZATION EXPERIMENTS;110
10.2.6;MEASURES FOR THE "OPTIMALITY" OFAUSTRIAN MACROECONOMIC POLICIES;112
10.2.7;CONCLUSIONS;113
10.2.8;REFERENCES;113
10.3;CHAPTER 16.
AN OPTIMAL CONTROL SIMULATION ANALYSIS OFTHE OIL-SHOCKED JAPANESE ECONOMY;114
10.3.1;Abstract;114
10.3.2;Keywords;114
10.3.3;Introduction;114
10.3.4;Table C shows the results of final testabout the crucial endogenous variables.;116
10.3.5;Some Results of Optimal ControlSimulation Analysis;116
10.3.6;Conclusive Remarks;119
10.3.7;REFFERENCES;119
10.4;CHAPTER 17.
ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FIXED RULES ANDINDICATORS;120
10.4.1;Abstract;120
10.4.2;Keywords;120
10.4.3;INTRODUCTION;120
10.4.4;OPTIMAL SIMPLE FEEDBACK LAWS;121
10.4.5;DERIVATION OF OPTIMAL RULES;122
10.4.6;INDICATORS AND OPTIMAL FEEDBACK LAWS;123
10.4.7;FIXED RULES AND SIMPLE FEEDBACK-LAWSUNDER UNCERTAINTY AND RATIONALEXPECTATIONS;124
10.4.8;CONCLUSIONS;125
10.4.9;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;125
10.4.10;REFERENCES;125
11;PART VI:
MODELING AND ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES;128
11.1;CHAPTER 18.
THE CONCEPT OF READING AS ANALYSIS OFMACROECONOMIC MODELS;128
11.1.1;Abstract;128
11.1.2;Keywords;128
11.1.3;INTRODUCTION;128
11.1.4;FIRST STEP OF THE READING :BUILDING A CAUSALITY RELATION;128
11.1.5;SECOND STEP OF THE READING :BUILDING STRICT AND CIRCULARCAUSALITY RELATIONS;129
11.1.6;THIRD STEP OF THE READING :BUILDING AN APPROXIMATEHIERARCHICAL CAUSALITY RELATION;130
11.1.7;CONCLUSION;132
11.1.8;REFERENCES;132
11.2;CHAPTER 19.
COMPUTER BASED TECHNIQUES FOR ASSESSINGCREDIBILITY OF COMPLEX SIMULATIONMODELS;136
11.2.1;Abstract;136
11.2.2;Keywords·;136
11.2.3;INTRODUCTION;136
11.2.4;CANADIAN FIVE-SECTOR MODEL;137
11.2.5;ASSESSMENT OF CREDIBILITY;138
11.2.6;TECHNIQUES OF ANALYSIS;138
11.2.7;COMPARISON WITH FORRESTER;139
11.2.8;CONCLUSIONS;141
11.2.9;REFERENCES;142
11.2.10;APPENDIX;142
11.3;CHAPTER 20.
IMPLEMENTATION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNINGMODELS IN FEDERAL AGENC;144
11.3.1;Abstract;144
11.3.2;Keywords;144
11.3.3;INTRODUCTION;144
11.3.4;INTRODUCTION;144
11.3.5;CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK;144
11.3.6;APPROACHPRTOO BLTEHME RESEARCH;144
11.3.7;CRITIICMAPLLEMVEANRTIAATBILOENS FOR;146
11.3.8;TYPES OF MODEL USE;148
11.3.9;CONCLUSIONS;148
11.3.10;REFERENCES;149
11.4;CHAPTER 21.
A RATIONAL DECISIONMAKING PROCESS FORRESOURCE POLICYMAKING;150
11.4.1;Abstract:;150
11.4.2;Keywords;150
11.4.3;INTRODUCTION;150
11.4.4;PROCESSES FOR DEVELOPING POLICY AND MAKINGDECISIONS;150
11.4.5;SUB PROCEDURES FOR FORMULATING ANDANALYZING POLICY ALTERNATIVES;151
11.4.6;BIBLIOGRAPHY;153
12;PART VII:
MODELING LANGUAGES I;158
12.1;CHAPTER 22.
A MODELING LANGUAGE FOR SETS OF LINKED MODELS;158
12.1.1;Abstract.;158
12.1.2;Keywords;158
12.1.3;INTRODUCTION;158
12.1.4;SOLVING A SET OF LINKED MODELS;158
12.1.5;THE LYNX LANGUAGE;161
12.1.6;AN INTERPRETER FOR LYNX, USING TROLLAS THE LOWER-LEVEL LANGUAGE;162
12.1.7;CONCLUSION;163
12.1.8;REFERENCES;163
12.2;CHAPTER 23.
DISAGGREGATED MODEL-BUILDING USING THE IDIOMSOFTWARE SYSTEM;164
12.2.1;Abstract;164
12.2.2;Keywords;164
12.2.3;INTRODUCTION;164
12.2.4;AN OUTLINE OF MDM5;164
12.2.5;SOFTWARE DESIGN PRINCIPLESAND MDM5;166
12.2.6;APPLICATION - FORECASTS FORTHE UK ECONOMY;167
12.2.7;REFERENCES;169
12.2.8;APPENDIX;170
12.3;CHAPTER 24.
INFERENCE OF THE STRUCTURE OF ECONOMICREASONING FROM NATURAL LANGUAGE ANALYSIS;172
12.3.1;Abstract.;172
12.3.2;Keywords;172
12.3.3;1.
INTRODUCTION;172
12.3.4;2. INFERENCE OF THE ECONOMETRICMODEL STRUCTURE;173
12.3.5;3. FORMAL LANGUAGES;173
12.3.6;4. SPECIFICATION OF THE ECONOMICREASONING LANGUAGE L(G);174
12.3.7;5. INFERENCE ALGORITHMS;175
12.3.8;6. EXAMPLE;175
12.3.9;7. APPLICATIONS OF INFERENCE OFTHE STRUCTURE OFECONOMIC REASONING;176
12.3.10;CONCLUSION;177
12.3.11;REFERENCES;177
13;PART VIII:
CONTROL METHODS;180
13.1;CHAPTER 25.
A COMPARISON OF FREQUENCY-DOMAIN ANDOPTIMAL CONTROL METHODS IN MACROECONOMICPOLICY DESIGN;180
13.1.1;Abstract;180
13.1.2;Keywords;180
13.1.3;1.INTRODUCTION;180
13.1.4;2. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN DESIGN TECHNIQUES;181
13.1.5;3. DETAILS OF DESIGN PROCEDURES;182
13.1.6;4. COMPARISON OF POLICY DESIGNS;183
13.1.7;5. DISCUSSION.;184
13.1.8;Acknowledgement;185
13.1.9;REFERENCES;185
13.2;CHAPTER 26.
ON THE DYNAMICS OF THE LBS ECONOMETRIC MODEL;188
13.2.1;Abstract;188
13.2.2;Key words:;188
13.2.3;INTRODUCTION;188
13.2.4;THE DYNAMIC BEHAVIOUR OF KEY EQUATIONS;189
13.2.5;RESPONSES OF THE FULL MODEL;190
13.2.6;CONCLUSIONS;191
13.2.7;APPENDIX A;192
13.2.8;REFERENCES;192
13.3;CHAPTER 27. SELFTUNING CONTROL OF A MACRO ECONOMICSYSTEM;196
13.3.1;Abstract;196
13.3.2;Keywords;196
13.3.3;I. INTRODUCTION;196
13.3.4;II. T(CWLO) A-LSGTAOBRIILTIHTMYS AND;197
13.3.5;III.SELFTUNING CONTROL;198
13.3.6;IV. A SIMULATION STUDY;199
13.3.7;V. SIMULATION RESULTS;200
13.3.8;VI. CROENSECALRUCSHI ONS AND FURTHER;200
13.3.9;REFERENCES;201
13.4;CHAPTER 28.
ON THE MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF A NATIONALECONOMY;204
13.4.1;Abstract;204
13.4.2;Keywords;204
13.4.3;INTRODUCTION;204
13.4.4;STABILIZATION POLICY;205
13.4.5;MATHEMATICAL SOLUTION- DETERMINISTIC CASE:;207
13.4.6;M-A TSHTEOMCAHTAISCTAILC SCOALSUET:I ON;209
13.4.7;CONCLUSION:;210
13.4.8;sAFTINATLH E COCMOMNEFNETRSE NCBEY: DR. ADOMIAN;210
13.4.9;REFERENCES;211
13.5;CHAPTER 29.
ON THE MARKOV STOPPING RULE ASSOCIATEDWITH THE PROBLEM OF CONTROLLING ADUAL ECONOMY;212
13.5.1;Abstract:;212
13.5.2;Keywords;212
13.5.3;INTRODUCTION TO THE CONTROLLED DUALECONOMY;212
13.5.4;THE ASSOCIATED FREE BOUNDARY PROBLEM;215
13.5.5;THE DIRICHLET PROBLEM;216
13.5.6;A STOCHASTIC REPRESENTATION OF u(x(t));217
13.5.7;CONCLUSIONS;218
13.5.8;Acknowledgments;218
13.5.9;REFERENCES;219
14;PART IX:
GLOBAL MODELING;220
14.1;CHAPTER 30.
METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES IN GLOBAL MODELLING:STRUCTURAL VS. DATA-ANALYTIC APPROACHES;220
14.1.1;Abstract;220
14.1.2;Keywords;220
14.1.3;STRUCTURE OF GLOBALECONOMETRIC MODELS;220
14.1.4;ALTERNATIVE SYSTEMPARAMETRIZATIONS;221
14.1.5;EXTENSIONS OF RESEARCH ANDREPORTING STRATEGIES;221
14.1.6;AN EXAMPLE;222
14.1.7;CONCLUSION;225
14.1.8;REFERENCES;225
14.2;CHAPTER 31.
A MACROECONOMIC STUDY ON THE FUTURE OFGLOBAL INTERDEPENDENCE1;226
14.2.1;Abstract;226
14.2.2;Keywords;226
14.2.3;INTRODUCTION: METHODOLOGY ONGLOBAL ECONOMIC MODELING;226
14.2.4;THE SCOPE AND THEORETICALSTRUCTURE OF THE FUGI GLOBALMACROECONOMIC MODELTYPE IV 011;227
14.2.5;RESULTS OF PROJECTION;229
14.2.6;CONCLUSION;231
14.2.7;ANNEX;231
14.2.8;REFERENCES;238
15;PART X:
EFFECTIVENESS OF ECONOMIC POLICIES;240
15.1;CHAPTER 32.
STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL CONTROL FOR MONETARYPLANNING;240
15.1.1;Abstract.;240
15.1.2;Keywords;240
15.1.3;INTRODUCTION;240
15.1.4;THE STOCHASTIC OPTIMALCONTROL SOLUTION;240
15.1.5;THE UPDATING METHOD;241
15.1.6;THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL;243
15.1.7;POLICY ANALYSIS;244
15.1.8;CONCLUSION;245
15.1.9;REFERENCES;245
16;PART XI:
MODELING LANGUAGES II;248
16.1;CHAPTER 33.
A MATHEMATICAL-COMPUTER LANGUAGE FORLINEAR PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS;248
16.1.1;Abstract;248
16.1.2;INTRODUCTION;248
16.1.3;1. An Example and Proof of Principle;249
16.1.4;2. Development of the Processor;250
16.1.5;3. Project Status;252
16.1.6;4. Summary and Conclusions;254
16.1.7;References;254
16.2;CHAPTER 34.
THE TRANSACTION VALUE APPROACH: A SYSTEMATICMETHOD OF DEFINING ECONOMYWIDE MODELS BASEDON SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES;256
16.2.1;Abstract;256
16.2.2;Key words:;256
16.2.3;INTRODUCTION;256
16.2.4;THE SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIXAS A DATA BASE;257
16.2.5;SAM-BASED MODELS;257
16.2.6;THE TRANSACTION VALUEAPPROACH TO MODELING;258
16.2.7;MODEL ASSUMPTION;259
16.2.8;PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND UPDATING;259
16.2.9;THE MODEL SOLUTION PROCEDURE;260
16.2.10;CONCLUSIONS AND DIRECTIONSFOR FUTURE RESEARCH;261
16.2.11;REFERENCES;261
17;PART XII:
INPUT-OUTPUT AND REGIONAL MODELS;264
17.1;CHAPTER 35.
APPRAISING DEVELOPMENT PLANS FOR A SMALL,OPEN ECONOMY;264
17.1.1;Abstract;264
17.1.2;Keywords;264
17.1.3;INTRODUCTION;264
17.1.4;A SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX FOR 1978;265
17.1.5;THE MODEL;266
17.1.6;SOLVING AND USING THE MODEL;268
17.1.7;THE RESULTS;269
17.1.8;CONCLUSIONS;270
17.1.9;REFERENCES;271
17.2;CHAPTER 36.
EQUILIBRIUM EVOLUTION OF A MANY-GOOD, MANYSECTORECONOMY;272
17.2.1;Abstract;272
17.2.2;Keywords;272
17.2.3;INTRODUCTION;272
17.2.4;THE MODEL;272
17.2.5;DISCUSSION OF THE MODEL;273
17.2.6;EXISTENCE AND STABILITYPROPERTIES;273
17.2.7;AN EXAMPLE;274
17.2.8;TWO ILLUSTRATIVE APPLICATIONS;275
17.2.9;REFERENCES;275
17.3;CHAPTER 37.
SOME INITIAL EXPLORATIONS OF INTERREGIONALLINKAGES FOR ECONOMETRIC MODELS;276
17.3.1;Abstract;276
17.3.2;Keywords;276
17.3.3;INTRODUCTION;276
17.3.4;TTMHOIEDO ENLSE MOPLFO YAM ERNETG IOSNEACLT ORE COSNPOEMCEITFRIICCA;277
17.3.5;ERICENOSTNUEOLRMTRISEC G IOANCATLI VIFTLYO:W S SINOM ER ESIPNOINTSIEA LT O;279
17.3.6;CONCLUSION;283
17.3.7;REFERENCES;283
17.4;CHAPTER 38. FACTOR DEMANDS AND INPUT SUBSTITUTION IN ANINTERINDUSTRY MODEL FOR THE ITALIANECONOMY (*);284
17.4.1;Abstract;284
17.4.2;Keywords;284
17.4.3;INTRODUCTION;284
17.4.4;SPECIFICATIONS OF DERIVEDFACTOR DEMANDS;284
17.4.5;ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION ANDEMPIRICAL RESULTS;286
17.4.6;CONCLUSIONS;286
17.4.7;REFERENCES;289
18;PART XIII:
GAME THEORY FOR PLANNING II;290
18.1;CHAPTER 39.
DECENTRALIZED LINEAR-QUADRATIC DIFFERENTIALGAMES WITH INCENTIVES1^;290
18.1.1;Abstract;290
18.1.2;Keyword;290
18.1.3;1. INTRODUCTION;290
18.1.4;i2.THE DECENTRALIZED 'MINIMUM ENERGY' GAMEWITH INCENTIVES;290
18.1.5;3. EXAMPLES;293
18.1.6;4. CONCLUSIONS;294
18.1.7;REFERENCES;295
18.2;CHAPTER 40.
ROBUSTNESS OF INCENTIVE POLICIES IN TEAMPROBLEMS WITH DISCREPANCIES IN GOALPERCEPTIONS;296
18.2.1;Abstract;296
18.2.2;Keywords;296
18.2.3;I. INTRODUCTION;296
18.2.4;II. PROBLEM FORMULATION;297
18.2.5;III. INTRODUCTION OF A SENSITIVITYFUNCTION AND DERIVATION OF MINIMUMSENSITIVITY SOLUTIONS;297
18.2.6;IV. GEOMETRIC INTERPRETATION OF TOTALINSENSITIVITY WHEN THE OBJECTIVEFUNCTIONAL IS AFFINE IN A PARAMETER;298
18.2.7;V. AN EXAMPLE FROM MICROECONOMICS;299
18.2.8;VI. EXTENSION TO THE MULTIPARAMETER CASE;300
18.2.9;VII. AN EXAMPLE FROM THE PROBLEM OFARMAMENT LIMITATION AND CONTRO;301
18.2.10;VIII. CONCLUDING REMARKS;302
18.2.11;REFERENCES;303
18.2.12;ACKNOWLEDGMENT;303
18.3;CHAPTER 41.
MARKET EQUILIBRIUM IN A MULTISTAGECOMMODITY NETWORK;304
18.3.1;Abstract;304
18.3.2;Keywords;304
18.3.3;INTRODUCTION;304
18.3.4;THE MODEL;305
18.3.5;GAME IN NORMAL FORM, EQUILIBRIUM;306
18.3.6;COALITIONS;308
18.3.7;REFERENCES;309
19;PART XIV:
MACROECONOMICS;310
19.1;CHAPTER 42.
THE EFFECTS OF AN ACTIVIST POLICY ONMACROECONOMIC STABILITY;310
19.1.1;Abstract;310
19.1.2;Keywords;310
19.1.3;INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY;310
19.1.4;A SIMPLE EXPOSITORY MODEL;310
19.1.5;EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF STABILITY PROPERTIES;312
19.1.6;CONCLUSION;313
19.1.7;NOTES;313
19.1.8;REFERENCES;314
19.2;CHAPTER 43.
SECTORAL PRODUCTIVITY GAINS AND INDUCEDINFLATION;316
19.2.1;Abstract;316
19.2.2;Keywords;316
19.2.3;I. INTRODUCTION;316
19.2.4;II. THE INFLATION MODEL;317
19.2.5;III. MONETARY POLICY AND INFLATION;319
19.2.6;IV. OPTIMAL CONTROL SIMULATIONS;320
19.2.7;V. CONCLUSIONS;322
19.3;CHAPTER 44.
THE PRINCIPLE OF POLITICAL-ECONOMICASSIGNMENT: ANALYSIS OF A MACRO-ECONOMICMODEL WITH POLITICAL FEEDBACKS;324
19.3.1;Abstract;324
19.3.2;Keywords;324
19.3.3;INTRODUCTION;324
19.3.4;GOVERNMENT POPULARITY ANDECONOMIC PERFORMANCE;324
19.3.5;THE ECONOMY WITHOUT POLITICALFEEDBACKS;325
19.3.6;POLITICAL-ECONOMIC POLICY;325
19.3.7;POLITICAL-ECONOMIC REACTIONFUNCTIONS;326
19.3.8;STRICT CONTROL OF THE STATE;327
19.3.9;COMPARATIVE STATICS;327
19.3.10;EFFECTIVE ASSIGNMENT;328
19.3.11;REFERENCES;328
19.3.12;APPENDIX: STABILITY OF ECONOMICSYSTEMS "PATCHED UP"WITH POLITICAL MANIPULATION;329
19.3.13;CONCLUDING REMARKS;328
19.4;CHAPTER 45.
MACRO MODEL WITH SOCIAL ACCOUNTINGSTRUCTURE FOR BRAZIL;330
19.4.1;Abstract;330
19.4.2;Keywords;330
19.4.3;INTRODUCTION;330
19.4.4;SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX;330
19.4.5;STRUCTURE OF MODEL;332
19.4.6;HOW THE MODEL WORKS;332
19.4.7;POLICY EXPERIMENTS;332
19.4.8;MACRO VARIABLES;334
19.4.9;INCOME-EXPENDITURE-CONSUMPTION;334
19.4.10;RANKING OF POLICIES;334
19.4.11;CONCLUSION;335
19.4.12;REFERENCES;335
19.5;CHAPTER 46.
AN 'OPTIMAL' PHILLIPS-CURVE;338
19.5.1;Abstract;338
19.5.2;Keywords;338
19.5.3;INTRODUCTION;338
19.5.4;MODEL, WAGE-RELATION AND DATA;339
19.5.5;RESULTS;341
19.5.6;CONCLUSIONS;342
19.5.7;REFERENCES;342
20;PART XV:
ENERGY MODELS;344
20.1;CHAPTER 47.
OPEC'S PRICING POLICY AND THE INTERNATIONALTRANSMISSION OF OIL PRICE EFFECTS;344
20.1.1;Abstract;344
20.1.2;I. INTRODUCTION;344
20.1.3;II. A GLOBAL MODEL OF OIL PRICE EFFECTS;344
20.1.4;III. SIMULTANEOUS DETERMINATION OF OILPRICES AND REAL INCOME: AN OPTIMALCONTROL APPROACH.;346
20.1.5;IV. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN DESCRIPTION OF THEWELFARE FUNCTION;347
20.1.6;V. CONCLUSIONS;348
20.1.7;REFERENCES;351
20.2;CHAPTER 48.
AN ENERGY-ECONOMIC MODEL FOR DEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES;352
20.2.1;Abstract;352
20.2.2;Keywords;352
20.2.3;INTRODUCTION;352
20.2.4;DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL STRUCTURE;353
20.2.5;SIMULATION RESULTS;355
20.2.6;CONCLUSIONS;356
20.2.7;REFERENCES;357
20.2.8;APPENDIX IDEFINITION OF VARIABLES;357
20.3;CHAPTER 49.
A PETROLEUM PRICE MODEL ASSOCIATED WITHCROSS IMPACT METHOD;360
20.3.1;Abstract;360
20.3.2;Keywords;360
20.3.3;1. System-Dynamic Model of the World PetroleumMarket;360
20.3.4;2. Modeling of Stochastic Events; Use ofCross Impact Matrix Method;363
20.3.5;3. Hybrid Simulation of SD model and DX-Imodel;364
20.3.6;4. Tentative Econometric Investigationsof Petroleum Price Model;365
20.3.7;5. Concluding Remarks;367
20.3.8;(reference);367
20.4;CHAPTER 50.
A FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING PLANNINGSTRATEGIES FOR AN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRYUNDER UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE OIL PRICESAND RATES OF RETURN;368
20.4.1;Abstract;368
20.4.2;Keywords;368
20.4.3;INTRODUCTION;368
20.4.4;A MODEL FOR OPTIMAL MANAGEMENTOF NATIONAL WEALTH;369
20.4.5;SOME IMPLICATIONS OF THEMODEL;371
20.4.6;INTERPRETATION AND APPLICATION OFTHE MODEL FOR USE IN NATIONAL ECONOMICPLANNING;372
20.4.7;REFERENCES;373
21;PART XVI:
INTERNATIONAL FINANCE AND MACROECONOMICS;374
21.1;CHAPTER 51.
INTERNATIONAL PORTFOLIO BEHAVIOR OFU.S· BANKS;374
21.1.1;Abstract;374
21.1.2;Keywords;374
21.1.3;1. Introduction;374
21.1.4;2. Description and Summary of Data;374
21.1.5;3. U.S. Banks' Foreign Asset Demand Equations;375
21.1.6;4. The Relationship Between Net Positions andOwn Rates of Return in Frequency Domain;378
21.1.7;5. Conclusion;379
21.1.8;Footnotes;379
21.1.9;REFERENCES;380
21.2;CHAPTER 52.
THE INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN WAGEINDEXATION AND EXCHANGE MARKETINTERVENTION;382
21.2.1;Abstract»;382
21.2.2;Keywords;382
21.2.3;INTRODUCTION;382
21.2.4;THE MODEL;382
21.2.5;INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN EXCHANGEMARKET INTERVENTION AND WAGEINDEXATION;383
21.2.6;STABILIZATION OF DISTURBANCES;383
21.2.7;REFERENCES;384
21.3;CHAPTER 53.
CURRENCY CRISES AND EXCHANGE RATEINSTABILITY;386
21.3.1;Abstract;386
21.3.2;Keywords;386
21.3.3;INTRODUCTION;386
21.3.4;THE MODEL;387
21.3.5;EQUILIBRIUM WITHOUTGOVERNMENT INTERVENTION;388
21.3.6;EQUILIBRIUM WITHGOVERNMENT INTERVENTION;389
21.3.7;CONCLUSIONS;391
21.3.8;REFERENCES;391
22;PART XVII:
PLANNING AND DECISION MODELS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES;394
22.1;CHAPTER 54.
AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMICEFFECTS OF POPULATION CHANGE;394
22.1.1;Abstract;394
22.1.2;Keywords;394
22.1.3;I. THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL;394
22.1.4;II. APPLICATION OF THE MODEL;397
22.1.5;III. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS;398
22.1.6;REFERENCES;398
22.1.7;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;399
22.2;CHAPTER 55.
DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR MARINE INVESTMENTPOLICY FOR THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES;400
22.2.1;Abstract;400
22.2.2;Keywords;400
22.2.3;LIST OF SYMBOLS;400
22.2.4;INTRODUCTION;400
22.2.5;DESCRIPTION OF MODEL;401
22.2.6;COMPUTATIONAL PROCEDURE;402
22.2.7;CASE STUDY ON CHILE;403
22.2.8;ACKNOWLEDGEMENT;404
22.2.9;CONCLUDING REMARKS;404
22.2.10;REFERENCES;404
22.3;CHAPTER 56. A STUDY ON ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR THEPROCESS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT USING A NONEQUILIBRIUMINPUT-OUTPUT MODEL (NEVA);408
22.3.1;ABSTRACT;408
22.3.2;INTRODUCTION;408
22.3.3;PURPOSE OF THE MODEL;409
22.3.4;MULTI-CRITERIA EVALUATIONOF ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES;409
22.3.5;MULTI-CRITERIA EVALUATION OF EACH DEVELOPINGSTRATEGY;410
22.3.6;MODEL DESCRIPTION;410
22.3.7;EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS;412
22.3.8;NUMERICAL RESULTS;413
22.3.9;CONCLUSIONS;414
22.3.10;REFERENCES;415
22.3.11;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;415
23;PARTXVIII:
INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS;416
23.1;CHAPTER 57.
CURRENCY INCONVERTIBILITY, PORTFOLIOBALANCE AND RELATIVE PRICES;416
23.1.1;Abstract;416
23.1.2;Keywords;416
23.1.3;1. Introduction;416
23.1.4;2. The model;417
23.1.5;3. Temporary equilibrium;418
23.1.6;4. Conclusion;423
23.1.7;Notes;423
23.1.8;References;423
23.2;CHAPTER 58.
THE FORMATION OF SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUNEXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS;424
23.2.1;INTRODUCTION;424
23.2.2;THE MODEL;424
23.2.3;A TWO-STAGE THEORY OF EXPECTATIONS;426
23.2.4;CONCLUSION;428
23.2.5;REFERENCES;428
23.3;CHAPTER 59.
DYNAMIC ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL, MONETARYAND REAL DISTURBANCES IN A THREE-COUNTRYWORLD: DERIVATION OF A BASIC INEQUALITY;430
23.3.1;1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY;430
23.3.2;2. MODEL DESCRIPTION;431
23.3.3;3. PARTIAL CHARACTERIZATION OF REFERENCESTATE;432
23.3.4;4. VARIATIONAL MODEL;432
23.3.5;5. DYNAMIC EQUATIONS;434
23.3.6;6. COST COMPARISONSW;435
23.3.7;7. DISCUSSIONS AND EXTENSIONS;435
23.3.8;References:;436
24;PART XIX:
ESTIMATION AND IDENTIFICATION;438
24.1;CHAPTER 60.
IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF TIME VARYINGMODELS WITH STRUCTURAL VARIABILITY OF THEPARAMETERS;438
24.1.1;Abstract;438
24.1.2;Keywords;438
24.1.3;MODEL SPECIFICATION;438
24.1.4;THE IDENTIFICATION PROBLEM;439
24.1.5;PROPERTIES OF THE ESTIMATES;441
24.1.6;GENERALIZATIONS;442
24.1.7;CONCLUSION;444
24.1.8;REFERENCES;444
24.2;CHAPTER 61.
PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN LARGE SCALEECONOMETRIC MODELS USING DECENTRALIZEDFILTERING ALGORITHMS;446
24.2.1;Abstract;446
24.2.2;Keywords;446
24.2.3;INTRODUCTION;446
24.2.4;SYSTEM DESCRIPTION;446
24.2.5;DECENTRALIZED STRUCTURES FOR ESTIMATIONIN LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS;447
24.2.6;PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF LARGE SCALEECONOMETRIC MODELS USING DECENTRALIZEDESTIMATION STRUCTURES;449
24.2.7;CONCLUSION;451
24.2.8;REFERENCES;451
24.2.9;APPENDIX;451
24.3;CHAPTER 62.
ASPECTS OF OPTIMAL ESTIMATION CONTROLSTRATEGIES IN ECONOMETRICS;454
24.3.1;Abstract;454
24.3.2;Keywords;454
24.3.3;INTRODUCTION;454
24.3.4;PROBLEM STATEMENT;456
24.3.5;EXTENSIONS OF DESIGN THEORY;456
24.3.6;CONCLUSIONS;460
24.3.7;REFERENCES;460
24.4;CHAPTER 63.
THE EFFECTS OF CYCLICALITY AND INFLATIONARYEXPECTATIONS ON INVESTMENT;462
24.4.1;Abstrac;462
24.4.2;Keywords;462
24.4.3;INTRODUCTION;462
24.4.4;CYCLICAL MECHANISMS LEADINGTO UNDERCAPITALIZATION;463
24.4.5;THE ROLE OF INFLATIONARYEXPECTATIONS;464
24.4.6;STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY: LAGDISTRIBUTION AND NUMBER OF LAGS;466
24.4.7;CONCLUSION;466
24.4.8;REFERENCES;468
25;PART XX:
INTERDEPENDENT ECONOMIES;470
25.1;CHAPTER 64.
OPTIMAL POLICIES FOR INTERDEPENDENTECONOMIES: RISK AVERSION AND THEPROBLEM OF INFORMATION1;470
25.1.1;Abstract;470
25.1.2;Keywords;470
25.1.3;INTRODUCTION;470
25.1.4;NONCOOPERATIVE STRATEGIES;470
25.1.5;UNCERTAINTY AND HETEROGENEOUS INFORMATION;472
25.1.6;RISK AVERSE DECISIONS;472
25.1.7;THE MODEL;473
25.1.8;THE RESULTS;474
25.1.9;CONCLUSION;477
25.1.10;REFERENCES;477
25.2;CHAPTER 65.
A TEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL TERM STRUCTURE OFINTEREST RATES: THE UNITED STATESCANADIANEXPERIENCE, 1973-80;478
25.2.1;Abstract;478
25.2.2;Keywords;478
25.2.3;INTRODUCTION;478
25.2.4;AN EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION OF THE INTERNATIONALTERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES;480
25.2.5;CONCLUSIONS;481
25.2.6;REFERENCES;481
26;CONFERENCE ATTENDEES;484
27;AUTHOR INDEX;488