Bonnet / Woltjer Surviving 1000 Centuries

Can We Do It?
1. Auflage 2010
ISBN: 978-0-387-74635-7
Verlag: Springer
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 422 Seiten

Reihe: Popular Science

The circumstances that will shape the long-term future of our planet will be constrained by what is physically possible and what is not. This full color book provides a quantitative view of our civilization over the next 100,000 years, in comparison to the 40-60,000 years it took for modern humans to emerge from Africa, on the basis of contemporary scientific and technological knowledge. The evolution of the Earth's atmosphere and the origin of water are highlighted as the most important factors for the emergence and the development of life. The authors consider both cosmic and natural hazards, pointing out that scientific information provided by satellites and communication systems on the ground could prevent many unnecessary casualties by forward planning and the installation of elementary precautions. The Earth's evolving climate is considered, showing how greenhouse gases have played an important role in the past climate, whereas human industrial and agricultural emissions will greatly impact our future.

Dr R M Bonnet and Dr L Woltjer are outstanding, internationally renowned scientists. During his long tenure at the European Space Agency, Dr Bonnet has directed the launch of 17 artificial scientific satellites, initiating the development of the Huygens probe placed on the NASA Cassini Saturn Orbiter which landed on Titan on 14 January 2005, developing the successful Mars Express mission and directing the SMART-1 European lunar mission. He is President of COSPAR and Executive Director of ISSI and has acquired a world reputation in the field of space politics. After 11 years at Columbia University, NY, Dr Woltjer returned to Europe as Director General of ESO for 13 years. Since then he has worked closely with the Observatories de Haute Provence in France and the University of Florence in Italy, was President of the International Astronomical Union and Chairman of the Space Science Advisory Committee of ESA for 4 years.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Bonnet, Roger-Maurice

Woltjer, Lodewyk

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Table of Contents
;5
2;List of Illustrations
;10
3;Foreword
;14
4;Preface
;16
5;Acknowledgments
;18
6;1 Introduction
;19
6.1;1.1 Why a hundred thousand years ?
;19
6.2;1.2 People and resources
;23
6.3;1.3 Management and cooperarion
;25
6.4;1.4 The overall plan of the book
;27
6.5;1.5 Notes and references
;29
7;2 A Brief History of the Earth
;30
7.1;2.1 The age of the Earth
;30
7.2;2.2 Geological timescales
;33
7.3;2.3 The formation of the Moon and the Late Heavy Bombardment
;35
7.4;2.4 Continents and plate tectonics
;40
7.4.1;2.4.1 Continents
;40
7.4.2;2.4.2 Plate tectonics
;41
7.4.3;2.4.3 The Earth's magnetic field
;45
7.5;2.4 Evolution ofthe Earth's atmosphere
;48
7.6;2.6 Life and evolution
;52
7.6.1;2.6.1 The early fossils in the Archean
;52
7.6.2;2.6.2 The Proterozoic and the apparition of oxygen
;54
7.6.3;2.6.3 The Neo-Proterozoic: the Ediacarans and the 'snowball earth'
;55
7.6.4;2.6.4 The Phanerozoic, life extinctions
;60
7.7;2.7 Conclusion
;65
7.8;2.8 Notes and references
;65
8;3 Cosmic Menaces
;70
8.1;3.1 Introduction
;70
8.2;3.2 Galactic hazards
;71
8.2.1;3.2.1 The death of the Sun
;74
8.2.2;3.2.2 Encounters with interstellar clouds and stars
;74
8.2.3;3.2.3 Supernovae explosions, UV radiation and cosmic rays
;76
8.2.4;3.2.4 Gamma-ray bursts and magnetars
;77
8.3;3.3 Solar System hazards
;79
8.3.1;3.3.1 Past tracks of violence
;79
8.3.2;3.3.2 The nature of the impactors: asteroids and comets
;83
8.3.3;3.3.3 Estimating the danger
;90
8.3.4;3.3.4 The bombardment continues
;93
8.3.5;3.3.5 Mitigation measures
;97
8.3.6;3.3.6 Deviation from the dangerous path
;97
8.3.7;3.3.7 Decision making
;101
8.3.8;3.3.8 Space debris
;102
8.4;3.4 Conclusion
;106
8.5;3.5 Notes and references
;106
9;4 Terrestrial Hazards
;109
9.1;4.1 Introduction
;109
9.2;4.2 Diseases
;111
9.2.1;4.2.1 How old shall we be in 1,000 centuries?
;114
9.2.2;4.2.2 How tall shall we be in 1,000 centuries ?
;116
9.3;4.3 Seismis hazards: the threat of volcanoes
;118
9.3.1;4.3.1 Volcanoes and tectonic activity
;118
9.3.2;4.3.2 The destructive power of volcanoes
;122
9.3.3;4.3.3 Volcanoes and climate change
;125
9.3.4;4.3.4 Forecasting eruptions
;128
9.4;4.4 Seismic hazards: the threat of earthquakes
;131
9.4.1;4.4.1 Measuring the power of earthquakes
;135
9.4.2;4.4.2 Earthquake forecasting
;136
9.4.3;4.4.3 Mitigation against earthquakes
;141
9.5;4.5 Tsunamis
;141
9.5.1;4.5.1 What are they ?
;141
9.5.2;4.5.2 The 26 December 2004 tsunami
;143
9.5.3;4.5.3 Forecasting tsunamis and mitigation approaches
;144
9.6;4.6 Climatic hazards
;148
9.6.1;4.6.1 Storms: cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons, ect.
;148
9.6.2;4.6.2 Floods
;153
9.6.3;4.6.3 Droughts
;158
9.7;4.7 Conclusion
;162
9.8;4.8 Notes and references
;164
10;5 The Changing Climate
;168
10.1;5.1 Miscellaneous evidence of climate change
;168
10.2;5.2 The global climate system
;171
10.3;5.3 Climates in the distant past
;175
10.4;5.4 The recent ice ages
;178
10.5;5.5 Recent climate
;186
10.6;5.6 Changes in the Sun
;189
10.7;5.7 Volcanic eruptions
;191
10.8;5.8 Anthropogenic CO2
;192
10.9;5.9 Interpretation of the recent record
;193
10.10;5.10 The ozone hole
;194
10.11;5.11 Notes and references
;197
11;6 Climate Futures
;201
11.1;6.1 Scenarios for future climates
;202
11.2;6.2 Geographic distribution of warming
;208
11.3;6.3 Sea level
;211
11.4;6.4 The 100,000-year climate future ;215
11.5;6.5 Doubts
;219
11.6;6.6 Consequences of climate change
;220
11.7;6.7 Appendix
;221
11.7.1;6.7.1 The four main SRES scenarios
;221
11.8;6.8 Notes and references
;223
12;7 The Future of Survivability: Energy and Inorganic Resources
;226
12.1;7.1 Energy for 100,000 years
;226
12.1.1;7.1.1 Energy requirements for the 100,000-year world
;228
12.1.2;7.1.2 Minor energy source for the long-term future
;230
12.1.3;7.1.3 Wind energy
;232
12.1.4;7.1.4 Solar energy
;234
12.1.5;7.1.5 Biofuels
;236
12.1.6;7.1.6 Nuclear energy
;238
12.1.7;7.1.7 Fusion energy
;241
12.2;7.2. Energy for the present century
;245
12.2.1;7.2.1 Fossil carbon fuels
;245
12.2.2;7.2.2 Electricity and renewables
;249
12.2.3;7.2.3 From now to then
;249
12.3;7.3 Elements and minerals
;251
12.3.1;7.3.1 Abundances and formation of the elements
;251
12.3.2;7.3.2 The composition of the Earth
;254
12.3.3;7.3.3 Mineral resources
;255
12.3.4;7.3.4 The present outlook
;257
12.3.5;7.3.5 Mineral resources for 100,000 years
;258
12.4;7.4 Conclusion
;263
12.5;7.5 Notes and references
;263
13;8 The Future of Survivability: Water and Organic Resources
;266
13.1;8.1 Water
;266
13.1.1;8.1.1 The water cycle
;267
13.1.2;8.1.2 Water use and water stress
;268
13.1.3;8.1.3 Remedial measures
;270
13.1.4;8.1.4 Water for 100,000 years
;273
13.1.5;8.1.5 From now to then: water and climate change
;275
13.2;8.2 Agriculture ;276
13.2.1;8.2.1 Increasing productivity
;276
13.2.2;8.2.2 Present and past land use
;278
13.2.3;8.2.3 Population
;279
13.2.4;8.2.4 Agricultural land and production
;279
13.2.5;8.2.5 Irrigation
;280
13.2.6;8.2.6 Fertilizers and pesticides
;280
13.2.7;8.2.7 Top soil
;281
13.2.8;8.2.8 Agriculture for 100,000 years
;282
13.2.9;8.2.9 From now to then
;284
13.3;8.3 Forests and wilderness
;284
13.3.1;8.3.1 Deforestation
;286
13.4;8.4 Conclusion
;289
13.5;8.5 Notes and references
;289
14;9 Leaving Earth: From Dreams to Reality ?
;293
14.1;9.1 Introduction
;293
14.2;9.2 Where to go ?
;294
14.2.1;9.2.1 The case of Venus
;296
14.2.2;9.2.2 The case of Mars
;300
14.2.3;9.2.3 Other worlds
;306
14.2.4;9.2.4 Interrtellar travel
;309
14.2.5;9.2.5 Space cities?
;311
14.3;9.3 What to do with the Moon?
;312
14.3.1;9.3.1 The Lunar Space Station
;313
14.3.2;9.3.2 The Moon as a scientific base
;314
14.3.3;9.3.3 The Moon for non-scientific exploitation
;315
14.3.4;9.3.4 Resources from outside the Earth-Moon system: planets and asteroids
;318
14.4;9.4 Terraforming the Earth
;320
14.4.1;9.4.1 Absorbing or storing CO2
;320
14.4.2;9.4.2 Cooling down the Earth
;321
14.5;9.5 Conclusion
;323
14.6;9.6 Notes and references
;323
15;10 Managing the Planet's Future: The Crucial Role of Space
;327
15.1;10.1 Introduction
;327
15.2;10.2 The specific needs for space observations of the Earth
;328
15.2.1;10. 2.1 The Earth's Interior
;328
15.2.2;10.2.2 Water: the hydrosphere and the cryosphere
;331
15.2.3;10.2.3 The atmosphere
;335
15.2.4;10.2.4 The biosphere
;339
15.3;10.3 The tools and methods of space
;341
15.3.1;10.3.1 The best orbits for Earth observation
;342
15.3.2;10.3.2 Geodesy and altimetry satellites: measuring the shapes of the Earth
;343
15.3.3;10.3.3 Global Positioning Systems
;349
15.3.4;10.3.4 Synthetic Aperture Radars
;351
15.3.5;10.3.5 Optical imaging
;359
15.3.6;10.3.6 Remote-sensing spectroscopy
;362
15.3.7;10.3.7 Radiometry
;366
15.3.8;10.3.8 Monitoring astronomical and solar influences
;369
15.4;10.4 Conclusion
;374
15.5;10.5 Notes and references
;375
16;11.Managing the Planet's Future: Setting-Up the Structures
;378
16.1;11.1 Introduction
;378
16.2;11.2 The alert phase: need for a systematic scientific approach
;379
16.2.1;11.2.1 Forecasting the weather: the 'easy' case
;379
16.2.2;11.2.2 The scientific alert phase: the example of the IPCC
;383
16.2.3;11.2.3 Organizing the space tools ;387
16.3;11.3 The indispensable political involvement
;392
16.3.1;11.3.1 The crucial role of the United States, China and India
;392
16.3.2;11.3.2 A perspective view on the political perception
;395
16.3.3;11.3.3 The emotional perception: the scene is moving
;404
16.4;11.4 Conclusion: towards world ecoligical governance?
;408
16.5;11.5 Notes and references
;410
17;12 Conclusion
;414
17.1;12.1 Limiting population growth
;414
17.2;12.2 Stabilizing global warming
;416
17.3;12.3 The limits of vessel-Earth
;417
17.4;12.4 The crucial role of education and science
;418
17.5;12.5 New governance required
;419
17.6;12.6 The difficult and urgent transition phase
;421
17.7;12.7 Adapting to as static society
;422
17.8;12.8 Notes and references
;424
18;Index
;425