Bostrom Risk Assessment, Modeling and Decision Support

Strategic Directions
1. Auflage 2008
ISBN: 978-3-540-71158-2
Verlag: Springer-Verlag
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 339 Seiten

The papers in this volume integrate results from current research efforts in earthquake engineering with research from the larger risk assessment community. The authors include risk and hazard researchers from the major U.S. hazard and earthquake centers. The volume lays out a road map for future developments in risk modeling and decision support, and positions earthquake engineering research within the family of risk analysis tools and techniques.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Bostrom, Ann

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Editors;3
2;Contents;5
3;List of Abbreviations;9
4;1 Introduction;15
4.1;1.1 Roadmap to the Book;16
5;2 A Brief History of Seismic Risk Assessment;19
5.1;2.1 Introduction;19
5.2;2.2 Terminology;20
5.3;2.3 Overview of Seismic Risk Assessment;23
5.4;2.4 A Brief Chronology of Selected Events in Seismic Risk Assessment;25
5.5;2.5 How We Got Here;25
5.6;2.6 Vulnerability;44
5.7;2.7 Special Vulnerability Relations;54
5.8;2.8 Asset Identification and Attributes;58
5.9;2.9 Risk Analysis Methods;61
5.10;2.10 Assessment;64
5.11;2.11 Current Status;67
5.12;2.12 Concluding Remarks;69
5.13;2.13 Acknowledgments;70
5.14;References;71
5.15;Appendix 1. Chronology of Seismic Risk Assessment;78
5.16;Appendix 2. Reports from MIT SDDA (Seismic Design Decision Analysis) Project;92
5.17;Appendix 3. Terminology and Concordance;94
6;3 Perspectives on the History of Seismic Risk Assessment;96
6.1;Responses to Scawthorn’s paper “A Brief History of Seismic Risk Assessment” ;96
6.2;Introduction;96
6.3;3.1 Lessons Leaned from Current Practice and Future Needs in Regional Loss Estimation;97
6.4;3.2 The Dawn of Earthquake Investigations and Cross- Continent Interactions;102
6.5;3.3 Social Science Perspectives on Seismic Risk Assessment;109
6.6;3.4 Seismic Risk Assessment: History and Strategic Directions;110
6.7;References;112
7;4 Strategic Directions in Seismic Modeling: HAZUS® Development and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning;114
7.1;4.1 Introduction;114
7.2;4.2 HAZUS®MH Earthquake Model Overview;115
7.3;4.3 Use of HAZUS®MH to Support Catastrophe Planning;117
7.4;4.4 Use of HAZUS®MH to Link Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Disaster Response;123
7.5;4.5 Utilization of a Web-Based Data Management Portal System;126
7.6;4.6 Conclusions;128
7.7;References;128
8;5 Perspectives on Development and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning;130
8.1;Responses to Durham’s paper “Strategic Directions in Seismic Modeling” ;130
8.2;Introduction;130
8.3;5.1 Recommended Improvements for HAZUS®MH;131
8.4;5.2 User Dynamics and HAZUS® Development;136
8.5;5.3 Perspectives from a HAZUS® User;140
8.6;5.4 Strategic Directions for HAZUS® and Current Applications for Catastrophe Planning;142
8.7;References;145
9;6 Loss Estimation Models and Metrics;147
9.1;6.1 Introduction;147
9.2;6.2 Loss Dimensions;148
9.3;6.3 Components of the HAZUS® Loss Estimation Methodology;151
9.4;6.4 Current Limitations;155
9.5;6.5 Loss Calibration Studies;157
9.6;6.6 General Guidelines on the Use of Loss Estimates;162
9.7;6.7 Research Topics;165
9.8;References;166
9.9;Bibliography of Additional HAZUS® Studies;168
10;7 Perspectives on Loss Estimation Models and Metrics;182
10.1;Introduction;182
10.2;7.1 Model Validation and Priorities in Loss Metrics;183
10.3;7.2 Additional Considerations in Loss Estimation;186
10.4;7.3 Social and Economic Considerations in Loss Estimation Modeling;190
10.5;7.4 Strategic Directions for Loss Estimation Models and Metrics;192
10.6;References;194
11;8 Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty;195
11.1;8.1 Introduction;195
11.2;8.2 Seismic Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants;196
11.3;8.3 Nuclear Power Plant Seismic Design;197
11.4;8.4 Recommendations for Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions;203
11.5;8.5 Importance of Uncertainties;205
11.6;8.6 Summary;207
11.7;References;207
12;9 Perspectives on Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty;209
12.1;Responses to McGuire’s paper “Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty” ;209
12.2;Introduction;209
12.3;9.1 Perspectives from a Risk Assessment Practitioner;210
12.4;9.2 Seismic Risk Assessment and Mitigation: Current Issues;218
12.5;9.3 On the Importance of Network Considerations in Lifeline Risk Assessment;224
12.6;9.4 Strategic Directions for Seismic Risk Mitigation Decisions Under Uncertainty;232
12.7;References;234
13;10 Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies;237
13.1;10.1 Introduction;238
13.2;10.2 Structure of Catastrophe Models;239
13.3;10.3 A Comparison of Models;240
13.4;10.4 The Exceedance Probability Curve;243
13.5;10.5 Choice of Seismic Mitigation Strategies;245
13.6;10.6 Cost-Benefit Analysis;247
13.7;10.7 A Mitigation Example Using an Insurance-Based Model;248
13.8;10.8 Consideration of Decision Processes;252
13.9;10.9 Improving the Modeling of Seismic Mitigation Strategies;253
13.10;References;254
14;11 Perspectives on Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies;256
14.1;Responses to Grossi’s Paper “Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies” ;256
14.2;Introduction;256
14.3;11.1 Catastrophe Modeling Paradigm Shift;257
14.4;11.2 A Structural Engineering Perspective on Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies;261
14.5;11.3 The Role of Risk Modeling in Mitigation;263
14.6;11.4 Adopting Mitigation;264
14.7;11.5 Strategic Directions for Modeling Seismic Mitigation Strategies;265
14.8;References;268
15;12 Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards;270
15.1;12.1 Introduction;270
15.2;12.2 From Concepts to Representations;272
15.3;12.3 Uncertainty Visualization;278
15.4;12.4 Task-Oriented Visual Mappings;291
15.5;12.5 Hazards Visualization;294
15.6;12.6 Challenges;299
15.7;12.7 Acknowledgments;300
15.8;References;300
16;13 Perspectives on Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards;304
16.1;Responses to Pang’s Paper “Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards” ;304
16.2;Introduction;304
16.3;13.1 Preferred Data Visualization Techniques May Not Lead to Comprehension and Use of Hazard Information;305
16.4;13.2 Putting Seismic Risk and Uncertainty on the Map;315
16.5;13.3 Keep Representations Simple for Effective Communication;320
16.6;13.4 Strategic Directions for Visualizing Uncertainty in Natural Hazards;322
16.7;References;323
17;14 Conclusion;328
18;Index;331
19;List of Contributing Authors;336