Cagnin / Keenan / Johnston Future-Oriented Technology Analysis

Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy
1. Auflage 2008
ISBN: 978-3-540-68811-2
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 169 Seiten

The application of foresight to address the challenges of uncertainty and rapid change has grown dramatically in the past decade. In that period, the techniques have been greatly refined and the scope has been broadened to encompass future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) and more recently, the concept and practice of strategic intelligence. FTA addresses directly the longer-term future through the active and continuous development of visions, and pathways to realise these visions. It is increasingly seen as a valuable management and policy tool complementing, and extending further into the future, classical strategy, planning, and decision-making approaches. This book charts the development of FTA and provides the first coherent description and analysis of its practical application and impact in the worlds of business, government, education and research in both advanced and developing countries. It draws on papers addressing the application of FTA around the globe which were presented at the Second International Seville Seminar in September 2006. The insights and practical experience will be invaluable for company managers, government ministers and officials, researchers and academics with responsibilities for effective planning and decision-making in an increasingly turbulent and unpredictable world.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Cagnin, Cristiano

Keenan, Michael

Johnston, Ron

Scapolo, Fabiana

Barré, Rémi

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Contents;5
2;Contributors;7
3;Positioning Future-Oriented Technology Analysis;9
3.1;1.1 Background;9
3.2;1.2 Generations and Principles;10
3.3;1.3 FTA and Decision-Making Processes;13
3.4;1.4 What We Would Like to Know About FTA but still Don’t;15
3.5;1.5 Summary of Chapters;17
3.6;References;21
4;Part I FTA in Context;22
4.1;Historical Review of the Development of Future- Oriented Technology Analysis;23
4.1.1;2.1 Introduction;23
4.1.2;2.2 Forecasting and Foresight;24
4.1.3;2.3 Technology Assessment;27
4.1.4;2.4 Conclusion;28
4.1.5;References;28
4.2;Fitting Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Methods to Study Types;30
4.2.1;3.1 Introduction;30
4.2.2;3.2 Features of FTA Activities;31
4.2.3;3.3 Matching Goals and Methods;34
4.2.4;3.4 FTA Types;36
4.2.5;3.5 Putting the Pieces Together: FTA Methods and Types;40
4.2.6;3.6 Conclusions;42
4.2.7;References;44
4.3;Revisiting Foresight Rationales: What Lessons from the Social Sciences and Humanities?;46
4.3.1;4.1 Introduction;46
4.3.2;4.2 The Promise of SSH?;48
4.3.3;4.3 Conceptualising Foresight;49
4.3.4;4.4 Putting Theory into Practice?;56
4.3.5;References;57
4.4;Monstrous Foresight;58
4.4.1;5.1 There’s No Future in Foresight ;58
4.4.2;5.2 There’s No Future Because we Won’t Let it in;59
4.4.3;5.3 Is There a Future for Foresight? ;65
4.4.4;5.4 What Might this Mean in Practice? Some Preliminary Thoughts ;68
4.4.5;5.5 Conclusion;71
4.4.6;References;72
5;Part II FTA Applications;74
5.1;Technology Foresight as Innovation Policy Instrument: Learning from Science and Technology Studies;75
5.1.1;6.1 Introduction;75
5.1.2;6.2 Foresight and its Role Within the Innovation Process ;76
5.1.3;6.3 Social Shaping of Technology;80
5.1.4;6.4 Some Implications for Foresight;85
5.1.5;6.5 Conclusions;88
5.1.6;References;89
5.2;Strategic Intelligence in Decision Making;92
5.2.1;7.1 Introduction;92
5.2.2;7.2 Evidence for Policy;93
5.2.3;7.3 Decision Making;95
5.2.4;7.4 Policy as a Process;98
5.2.5;7.5 Interactions Between Strategic Intelligence Applications and Decision- Making;100
5.2.6;7.6 Case Study: A Joined Innovation Process;102
5.2.7;7.7 Conclusions;103
5.2.8;References;104
5.3;Corporate Foresight;106
5.3.1;8.1 Introduction;106
5.3.2;8.2 Why Foresight in Companies?;106
5.3.3;8.3 Types of Corporate Foresight;107
5.3.4;8.4 Objectives and Methods of FTA in and for Business;112
5.3.5;8.5 Impacts of Corporate FTA and Outlook;114
5.3.6;References;116
5.4;The Higher Education Sector and its Role in Research: Status and Impact of International Future- Oriented Technology Analysis;118
5.4.1;9.1 Introduction;118
5.4.2;9.2 The Landscape of FTA on Higher Education and its Role in Research;119
5.4.3;9.3 Methods, Approaches and Participation;123
5.4.4;9.4 Content of FTA on HE: Common Drivers of Change;124
5.4.5;9.5 Tracing Policy Focus, Trends and Impacts;128
5.4.6;9.6 Conclusion;130
5.4.7;References;130
5.5;Applying FTA Methods in Latin American Countries;133
5.5.1;10.1 Introduction;133
5.5.2;10.2 First Latin American Experiences in Future- Oriented Studies;134
5.5.3;10.3 Recent Experiences;137
5.5.4;10.4 Applying Different Methodologies;139
5.5.5;10.5 Difficulties for FTA in Less Developed Countries;142
5.5.6;10.6 The Challenges;144
5.5.7;References;147
6;Part III FTA Futures;148
6.1;New Methodological Developments in FTA;149
6.1.1;11.1 Introduction;149
6.1.2;11.2 What’s New in FTA Methods?;150
6.1.3;11.3 FTA Methods;151
6.1.4;11.4 Conclusions;158
6.1.5;References;159
6.2;Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Future Directions;163
6.2.1;12.1 Building Capacity in the FTA Community;165
6.2.2;12.2 Building Community Links;166
6.2.3;12.3 Raising Awareness of FTA Among Potential Users;167
6.2.4;12.4 Preparedness to Address Global Problems;168
6.2.5;12.5 Evaluation, Monitoring and Quality Control;168