Cummings Rethinking the BSE Crisis

A Study of Scientific Reasoning under Uncertainty
1. Auflage 2010
ISBN: 978-90-481-9504-6
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 242 Seiten

Reihe: Medicine (R0)

In 1986, the emergence of a novel brain disease in British cattle presented a unique challenge to scientists. How that challenge was addressed has been the subject of a public inquiry and numerous academic studies conducted to date. However, none of these investigations has sought to examine the reasoning of scientists during this critical period in the public health of the UK. Using concepts and techniques in informal logic, argumentation and fallacy theory, this study reconstructs and evaluates the reasoning of scientists in the ten-year period between 1986 and 1996. Specifically, a form of presumptive reasoning is described in which extensive use is made of arguments traditionally identified as informal fallacies. In the context of the adverse epistemic conditions that confronted scientists during the BSE epidemic, these arguments were anything but fallacious, serving instead to confer a number of epistemic gains upon scientific inquiry. This book argues for a closer integration of philosophy with public health science, an integration that is exemplified by the case of scientific reasoning during the BSE affair. It will therefore be of interest to advanced students, academics, researchers and professionals in the areas of public health science and epidemiology, as well as philosophical disciplines such as informal logic, argumentation and fallacy theory and epistemology.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Cummings, Louise

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Preface;6
2;Acknowledgements;8
3;Contents;9
4;List of Figures;11
5;List of Diagrams;12
6;1 BSE A Leap Into The Unknown;13
6.1;1.1 Introduction;13
6.2;1.2 Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies;14
6.2.1;1.2.1 Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease;14
6.2.2;1.2.2 Kuru;17
6.2.3;1.2.3 Gerstmann-Sträussler Syndrome;22
6.2.4;1.2.4 Scrapie;24
6.2.5;1.2.5 Transmissible Mink Encepalopathy;29
6.2.6;1.2.6 Chronic Wasting Disease;31
6.3;1.3 The BSE Knowledge Problem;34
6.3.1;1.3.1 The Knowledge Problem Exposed;35
6.3.2;1.3.2 The Knowledge Problem Bridged;38
6.4;1.4 Notes;41
7;2 The Scientific Challenge;46
7.1;2.1 Introduction;46
7.2;2.2 The Current Paradigm in Epidemiology;47
7.2.1;2.2.1 Theoretical Development in Epidemiology;47
7.2.2;2.2.2 Epidemiology and Other Disciplines;49
7.2.3;2.2.3 Reasoning and Epidemiology;50
7.2.4;2.2.4 Spatiotemporal Factors and Epidemiology;52
7.3;2.3 Early Epidemiological Investigations;54
7.4;2.4 Notes;62
8;3 Arguing Through Uncertainty;68
8.1;3.1 Introduction;68
8.2;3.2 Presumption and Science;71
8.2.1;3.2.1 Feature 1: Presumptions Display an Orientation to Action;72
8.2.2;3.2.2 Feature 2: Presumptions Exhibit Rational Justification;73
8.2.3;3.2.3 Feature 3: Presumptions are Inherently Defeasible;74
8.2.4;3.2.4 Feature 4: Presumptions Display Context Sensitivity;76
8.2.5;3.2.5 Feature 5: Presumptions Have a Low-Grade Epistemic Status;77
8.3;3.3 Presumption and Uncertainty Management;79
8.4;3.4 Presumption, Reasoning and Fallacies;85
8.5;3.5 Notes;89
9;4 Good Arguments During the BSE Inquiry;97
9.1;4.1 Introduction;97
9.2;4.2 The Early Years: 1986--1989;101
9.2.1;4.2.1 Argument from Analogy;102
9.2.2;4.2.2 Argument from Ignorance;107
9.2.3;4.2.3 Question-Begging Argument;113
9.3;4.3 Summary;117
9.4;4.4 Notes;119
10;5 The Unravelling of an Argumentative Strategy;126
10.1;5.1 Introduction;126
10.2;5.2 The Middle Years: 1989--1994;128
10.2.1;5.2.1 Argument from Analogy;129
10.2.2;5.2.2 Argument from Ignorance;134
10.2.3;5.2.3 False Attribution of a Part to a Whole;137
10.3;5.3 Summary;142
10.4;5.4 Notes;143
11;6 An Unchallengeable Scientific Consensus;148
11.1;6.1 Introduction;148
11.2;6.2 The Final Years: 1994--1996;149
11.2.1;6.2.1 Argument from Analogy;150
11.2.2;6.2.2 Argument from Ignorance;156
11.2.3;6.2.3 Arguing to the Wrong Conclusion;160
11.3;6.3 Summary;165
11.4;6.4 Notes;167
12;7 Political and Commercial Interests in the BSE Inquiry;173
12.1;7.1 Introduction;173
12.2;7.2 Reasoning and Non-scientific Interests in the BSE Inquiry;173
12.2.1;7.2.1 Argument from Authority;177
12.2.2;7.2.2 Argument Against the Person;184
12.2.3;7.2.3 Argument from Analogy;190
12.3;7.3 Summary;192
12.4;7.4 Notes;193
13;8 Learning the Lessons of the BSE Crisis;201
13.1;8.1 Introduction;201
13.2;8.2 A Model of Reasoning in Scientific Inquiry;205
13.2.1;8.2.1 A Model of Reasoning in Early Inquiry;206
13.2.2;8.2.2 A Model of Reasoning in Middle Inquiry;209
13.2.3;8.2.3 A Model of Reasoning in Late Inquiry;212
13.3;8.3 The Model, Risk Analysis and Public Health Science;216
13.3.1;8.3.1 The Precautionary Principle;217
13.3.2;8.3.2 As Low As Reasonably Practicable;220
13.4;8.4 Summary;221
13.5;8.5 Notes;222
14;Bibliography;230
15;Index;245