Earl / Littleboy G.L.S. Shackle

2014
ISBN: 978-1-137-28186-9
Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 260 Seiten

Reihe: Great Thinkers in Economics

This is an intellectual biography of G.L.S. Shackle, economic theorist, philosopher, and historian of economic theory. It explores how Shackle challenged the aims, methods and assumptions of mainstream economics. He stressed macroeconomic instability, and developed a radically subjectivist theory for behavioural economics and business planning.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Earl, P.

Littleboy, Bruce

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Cover;1
2;Title;4
3;Copyright;5
4;Contents;6
5;List of Figures;9
6;List of Tables;10
7;Preface and Acknowledgements;11
8;1 Introduction;15
9;2 Life and Vision;21
9.1;2.1 Introduction;21
9.2;2.2 The discipline’s most radical economist;24
9.3;2.3 A man of quiet ambition;27
9.4;2.4 Life, disposition and vision;28
9.5;2.5 On method and style;31
9.6;2.6 Conclusion;39
9.7;Appendix: George Shackle’s family history;41
10;3 Shackle’s Economics;44
10.1;3.1 Shackle’s kaleidics;44
10.2;3.2 Shackle’s policy vision;46
10.3;3.3 Kaleidic macroeconomic theory;50
10.4;3.4 Shackle, institutionalism and Austrian economics;55
10.5;3.5 Shackle’s economics today: complexity and emergence;60
11;4 Possibility versus Probability: The Rhetoric of Choice;65
11.1;4.1 Introduction;65
11.2;4.2 Possibility versus probability;68
11.3;4.3 The rival positions;71
11.4;4.4 Going too far?;77
11.5;4.5 Psychology and probability;80
11.6;4.6 Hypothetical experiments: picking a ball from a bag;85
11.7;4.7 Expertise;88
11.8;4.8 Bluffing and game theory;90
11.9;4.9 Deep uncertainty: we simply do not know;92
11.10;4.10 Concluding reflections;94
12;5 Potential Surprise and Choice;98
12.1;5.1 A decade in development;98
12.2;5.2 Prospective returns and potential surprise;101
12.3;5.3 From conjectures to choices;104
12.4;5.4 Standardized focus outcomes;112
12.5;5.5 Coming out against probabilistic models of choice under uncertainty;117
13;6 Critical Perspectives on Shackle’s Theory;123
13.1;6.1 Shackle and his critics;123
13.2;6.2 The subjectivist nature of the theory;124
13.3;6.3 Objections to the idea of potential surprise as an alternative to probability;127
13.4;6.4 Objections to the idea of focusing on best and worst outcomes;132
13.5;6.5 The alleged redundancy of the gambler indifference map;135
13.6;6.6 The debatable form of the F -surface;140
13.7;6.7 The evidence;146
13.8;6.8 Conclusion;150
14;7 Making Sense of Diversification;152
14.1;7.1 An unsatisfactory prediction;152
14.2;7.2 Shackle’s view of multi-asset diversification;154
14.3;7.3 Systemic versus non-systemic risks;159
14.4;7.4 Diversification, kaleidics and the firm;163
15;8 Shackle and Behavioural Economics;168
15.1;8.1 Shackle as a behavioural economist;168
15.2;8.2 Bounded (un)knowledge versus bounded rationality;172
15.3;8.3 Opportunities for integrating the analyses of Shackle and Simon;177
15.4;8.4 Shackle’s analysis versus Prospect Theory;181
15.5;8.5 Base-rate probabilities for novel/singular situations;191
16;9 Lessons for Economists, Entrepreneurs and Business Schools;194
16.1;9.1 Introduction;194
16.2;9.2 Non-additive ways of choosing;195
16.3;9.3 Kaleidic versus systematic aspects of choice;198
16.4;9.4 Avoiding unpleasant surprises and opportunity losses;200
16.5;9.5 Contractual incompleteness and economic organization;204
16.6;9.6 Marketing and consumer well-being;206
16.7;9.7 Entrepreneurship;209
17;10 The Passage of Time: Shackle, Shell and Scenarios;212
17.1;10.1 Background to the connection between Shackle and Shell;212
17.2;10.2 The British Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in York, 1981;221
17.3;10.3 To cope with time;224
17.4;10.4 Interest in Shell’s scenarios approach by Shackle enthusiasts;226
17.5;10.5 Concluding remarks;228
18;11 Coda;229
19;Notes;232
20;References;239
21;Index of Names;253
22;Index of Subjects;256