Elsner / Jagger Hurricanes and Climate Change

1. Auflage 2010
ISBN: 978-0-387-09410-6
Verlag: Springer
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 380 Seiten

Recent studies suggest that tropical cyclones are more powerful than in the past with the most dramatic increase in the North Atlantic. The increase is correlated with an increase in ocean temperature. A debate concerns the nature of these increases with some scientists attributing them to a natural climate fluctuation and others suggesting climate change related to anthropogenic increases in forcing from greenhouse gases. A Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change was held during the spring of 2007 on the island of Crete that brought together leading academics and researchers on both sides of the scientific debate to discuss new research and express opinions about what will happen in the future with regard to hurricane activity. This proceedings volume highlights the state-of-the-science research into various aspects of the hurricane-climate connection. It is likely that the science presented here will lead to new research that will help answer crucial questions about our sustainable future.

James B. Elsner is a Professor of Geography at Florida State University where he teaches about climate and statistics. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee in 1988 and earned tenure in the Department of Meteorology at Florida State University in 1996. His research interests include the hurricane hazard and statistical modeling. He has written over 75 research articles in scientific journals and two books. His latest book on hurricanes and climate is available from Oxford University Press. Dr. Elsner is the President of Climatek; a company that develops models for hurricane risk analysis. Thomas H. Jagger is Vice President of Climatek and an independent research scholar.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Elsner, James B.

Jagger, Thomas H.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Preface;5
2;Contents;8
3;Contributors;11
4;Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Effects on Tropical Cyclones;16
5;Electrification in Hurricanes: Implications for Water Vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer;36
6;Long-Term Natural Variability of Tropical Cyclones in Australia;50
7;Statistical Link Between United States Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Solar Cycle;75
8;Five Year Prediction of the Number of Hurricanes that make United States Landfall;86
9;A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields;113
10;Probability of Hurricane Intensification and United States Hurricane Landfall under Conditions of Elevated Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures;133
11;Wavelet-Lag Regression Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones;151
12;Network Analysis of U.S. Hurricanes;165
13;Migration of the Tropical Cyclone Zone Throughout the Holocene;180
14;Aerosol Effects on Lightning and Intensity of Landfalling Hurricanes;199
15;Response of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Global Warming in an IPCC AR4 Scenario;223
16;Risk of Tropical Cyclones Over the Mediterranean Sea in a Climate Change Scenario;245
17;A Fast Non-Empirical Tropical Cyclone Identification Method;261
18;Boundary Layer Model for Moving Tropical Cyclones;274
19;Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming in a General Circulation Model;296
20;Relationship between ENSO and North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency Simulated in a Coupled General Circulation Model;331
21;Modeling of Tropical Cyclones and Intensity Forecasting;347
22;Roadmap to Assess the Economic Cost of Climate Change with an Application to Hurricanes in the United States;368
23;The Science and Politics Problem: Policymaking, Climate Change and Hurricanes;394
24;Index;419