Environmental and Agricultural Modelling:

Integrated Approaches for Policy Impact Assessment
1. Auflage 2010
ISBN: 978-90-481-3619-3
Verlag: Springer-Verlag
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 322 Seiten

Agriculture increasingly faces the challenge of balancing its multiple functions in a sustainable way. Integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) can provide insight into the potential impacts of policy changes. However, concepts to address the wide range of issues and functions typical for agriculture are still scarce. reviews and presents our current understanding of integrated and working tools to assess and compute, ex-ante, alternative agricultural and environmental policy options, allowing:

1. Analysis at the full range of scales (farm to European Union and global) whilst focusing on the most important issues emerging at each scale;

2. Analysis of the environmental, economic and social contributions of agricultural systems towards sustainable rural development and rural viability;

3. Analysis of a broad range of issues and agents of change, such as climate change, environmental policies, rural development options, effects of an enlarging EU, international competition, and effects on developing countries.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Preface;5
2;Contributors;8
3;Acronyms and Abbreviations;20
4;Chapter 1 Introduction;24
4.1;Context of Integrated Assessment: Policy and Research;24
4.2;Model Components and Database;26
4.3;Software Architecture and Ontologies;27
4.4;Key Objectives and Organisation of the Book;28
4.5;References;30
5;Chapter 2 Assessment of Multifunctionality and Jointness of Production;32
5.1;Introduction;32
5.2;Joint Supply, Theoretical Framework;34
5.3;Towards Indicators of Multifunctionality;36
5.3.1;Step 1: Identification of Jointness;38
5.3.1.1;Jointness at the Farm Gate;38
5.3.1.2;Jointness at the Regional Level;40
5.3.2;Step 2: Qualitative Assessment of Jointness;41
5.3.3;Step 3: Quantitative Assessment of Jointness;42
5.4;Testing Against Data in Europe;45
5.4.1;Identification of Jointness;45
5.4.1.1;Jointness at the Farm Gate;45
5.4.1.2;Jointness at the Farm Gate in a Region;48
5.4.2;Qualitative Assessment of Jointness;51
5.4.3;Quantitative Assessment of Jointness;53
5.5;Conclusions;54
5.6;References;55
6;Chapter 3 The Institutional Dimension in Policy Assessment;57
6.1;Introduction;57
6.2;Overview of Approaches for Policy Assessment;59
6.3;The Concept of Institutional Analysis for Ex-ante Policy Assessment;61
6.3.1;Institutions for Sustainability;61
6.3.2;Institutional Compatibility;62
6.4;The Procedure for Institutional Compatibility Assessment (PICA);64
6.4.1;Focussing PICA Step One: Deriving Policy Types;65
6.5;Institutional Compatibility of the EU Nitrate Directive;70
6.5.1;PICA Step One: Classification of the Policy Option;71
6.5.2;PICA Step Two: Crucial Institutional Aspects Related to the Policy Option;71
6.5.3;PICA Step Three: Linking Crucial Institutional Aspects to Institutional Indicators;72
6.5.4;PICA Step Four: Aggregating Information on Crucial Institutional Aspects of the Policy Option;74
6.6;Functions of PICA Within SEAMLESS-IF;76
6.7;References;77
7;Chapter 4 A Component-Based Framework for Simulating Agricultural Production and Externalities;81
7.1;Introduction;81
7.2;APES: The Agricultural Production and Externalities Simulator;84
7.2.1;Component Based Structure;85
7.2.2;Model Components;86
7.2.3;Agro-management Components;87
7.2.3.1;AgroManagement: Rule Based Modelling of Technical Management;87
7.2.4;Production Enterprise Components;89
7.2.4.1;AbioticDamage: Damage on Plants by Abiotic Factors;89
7.2.4.2;AgroChemicals: Pesticide Fate;89
7.2.4.3;Crop: Crop Development and Growth;90
7.2.4.4;CropML: Crop Development and Growth;91
7.2.4.5;Diseases: Air-Borne Plant Diseases;92
7.2.4.6;Grasses: Grassland Growth and Quality;93
7.2.4.7;FieldManager: Spatial Information for Multiple Plant Species;94
7.2.4.8;LightInterception: Light Interception and Competition by Canopies;94
7.2.4.9;MassBalance: A Library of Mass Balance Tests;95
7.2.4.10;RootDistribution: Roots Growth and Distribution;95
7.2.4.11;Tree: Woody Plant Growth and Quality;95
7.2.4.12;WaterUptake: Plant Water Uptake;96
7.2.5;Soil Components;96
7.2.5.1;SoilCarbonNitrogen: Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics;96
7.2.5.2;SoilErosion: Water Runoff and Soil Erosion by Water;97
7.2.5.3;SoilNitrogen: Soil Nitrogen Dynamics;98
7.2.5.4;SoilTemperature: Simulation of Temperature in the Soil Profile;98
7.2.5.5;SoilReader: Accessing Soil Data at Initialization;99
7.2.5.6;SoilWater: Soil Water and Hydrologic Characteristics Dynamics;99
7.2.5.7;SoilWater 2: Soil Water and Hydrologic Characteristics Dynamics;100
7.2.6;Weather Data Components;101
7.2.6.1;WeatherReader: Accessing Weather Data and Estimating Missing Values;101
7.3;The Intended Use of APES;101
7.3.1;Inputs;102
7.3.2;Parameters;103
7.4;Software Architecture;104
7.4.1;Component Design;105
7.4.2;Ontology;106
7.4.3;Model Granularity in Components;107
7.4.4;Test of Pre- and Post-conditions;109
7.4.5;Exception Handling;109
7.4.6;Tracing;110
7.4.7;Unit Tests;110
7.4.8;Model and Software Design and User Documentation;110
7.4.9;Component Public Interface;111
7.4.10;Technology Used;111
7.4.11;Model Component Diagram;111
7.4.12;The MODCOM Engine;112
7.4.13;Data Exchange Between Components;113
7.5;The APES Stand-Alone Application;113
7.5.1;The AgroManagement Configuration Generator;114
7.5.2;The Model Parameter Editor;115
7.5.3;The Graphic Data Display Component;115
7.5.4;The Simulation Output Evaluator;116
7.5.5;The CLIMA Weather Generator;117
7.5.6;The Model Component Explorer;118
7.6;APES Tools for Integration in Broader Modelling Systems;118
7.6.1;The Parameter Estimator;118
7.6.2;The Sensitivity Analysis Component;119
7.6.3;Remarks on APES Integration in Larger Systems;119
7.7;Concluding Remarks;120
7.7.1;Web Resources;121
7.8;References;121
8;Chapter 5 A Generic Farming System Simulator;127
8.1;Introduction;127
8.2;Farm Typology;128
8.2.1;Aim of the Farm Typology;128
8.2.2;Representation of the Farm Type: Average Versus Typical Farm;129
8.3;FSSIM-MP: Mathematical Programming Model;131
8.3.1;Aim of FSSIM-MP;131
8.3.2;FSSIM-MP Overview;132
8.3.3;Modelling of Policy Instruments in FSSIM-MP;134
8.3.4;Exogenous Assumptions for a Baseline Scenario;136
8.3.5;FSSIM-MP Structure: Modular Setup;136
8.4;FSSIM-AM: Agricultural Management;137
8.4.1;Aim of FSSIM-AM;137
8.4.2;Deriving and Quantifying Current Activities;139
8.4.2.1;Detailed Survey;139
8.4.2.2;Simple Survey;139
8.4.2.3;Data Storage and Checking;140
8.4.3;Generating Alternative Activities;140
8.4.3.1;Purpose;140
8.4.3.2;Production Enterprise Generator;140
8.4.3.3;Production Technique Generator;141
8.4.4;Technical Coefficient Generator;141
8.5;The Technical Implementation Through an Integrated Modelling Framework (SeamFrame);142
8.6;FSSIM Application: Detailed and Simple Applications;143
8.6.1;Detailed Application of FSSIM;144
8.6.2;Simple or Summarized Application of FSSIM;146
8.7;Conclusions;148
8.8;References;149
9;Chapter 6 Visualising Changes in Agricultural Landscapes;151
9.1;Introduction;151
9.2;Software Methodology and Design;155
9.2.1;Existing Software Tools;156
9.2.2;Data Needs;156
9.2.2.1;Digital Terrain Elevation Data (Raster);157
9.2.2.2;Land Cover Classification Data (Raster or Vector);157
9.2.2.3;Geotypical Textures Library (Raster);157
9.2.2.4;Orthophoto (Raster);157
9.2.2.5;Vegetation Model Library;158
9.2.3;Data Handling and Processing;159
9.2.4;Data Rendering;162
9.3;Example of Application;163
9.3.1;The Situation;163
9.3.2;The Scenarios;164
9.3.2.1;Scenario 1: Biodiversity by Agriculture;165
9.3.2.2;Scenario 2: A Green City in a Mediterranean Forest;165
9.3.2.3;Scenario 3: Urban Pressure;167
9.3.2.4;Scenario 4: The Garrigue After the Energy Crisis;168
9.4;Discussion;170
9.5;References;172
10;Chapter 7 A Biophysical Typology in Agri-environmental Modelling;176
10.1;Introduction;176
10.1.1;Objective of SEAMLESS Biophysical Typology;176
10.1.2;Background;177
10.1.3;Requirements of a Spatial Agri-environmental Framework;179
10.1.4;Short Description of the Contents;180
10.2;Environmental Typologies and Up-scaling;180
10.3;Data;182
10.3.1;Description and Characterization of the Environmental Zones (EnZ);182
10.3.2;Description of European Soil DataBase (ESDBv2);183
10.3.3;Description of TOPsoil Organic Carbon (OCTOP);184
10.3.4;Description of the Global Digital Elevation Model (GTOPO30);184
10.4;Methods;185
10.4.1;Selection of Soil Variables;185
10.4.2;Agri-mask;187
10.5;Results;188
10.5.1;Agri-environmental Zonation (AEnZ);188
10.5.1.1;Definition;188
10.5.1.2;Characterization;188
10.5.2;Seamzones;190
10.5.2.1;Definition;190
10.5.2.2;Climate;193
10.5.2.3;Soil;193
10.6;Applications;197
10.6.1;Selection of Sample Regions;197
10.6.2;Allocation of Farms;198
10.6.3;Model Input in SEAMLESS;199
10.7;Discussion and Conclusions;199
10.7.1;Agri-environmental Zones;199
10.7.2;Climate Zones;200
10.7.3;Seamzones;200
10.7.4;Applications;201
10.8;References;201
11;Chapter 8 The Use of Regional Typologies in the Assessment of Farms’ Performance;205
11.1;Introduction;205
11.2;Methodological Approach;207
11.2.1;Approach for Testing Hypotheses;209
11.2.2;Measurement of Farming Intensity;209
11.2.3;Typology of Rural and Urban Regions;209
11.2.4;Typology of Regions Based on the Share of Agricultural Employment;211
11.2.5;Typology of LFA and Non-LFA Regions;213
11.3;References;221
11.4;Results;214
11.5;Concluding Remarks;219
11.5.1;Drawbacks of Typologies at a Relatively High Regional Aggregation Level;219
11.5.2;Wide Support for Hypothesis (2) and (3);219
11.5.3;Regional Characteristics Included in Integrated Assessments;220
12;Chapter 9 A Web-Based Software System for Model Integration in Impact Assessments of Agricultural and Environmental Policies;222
12.1;Introduction;222
12.2;Challenges in Integrated Modelling;223
12.2.1;Interoperability from a Theoretical Perspective;223
12.2.2;Interoperability in Integrated Modelling;225
12.2.3;The Need for a Common Ontology;226
12.3;The Role of Ontologies in SEAMLESS;227
12.3.1;The Structure of SEAMLESS-IF Framework;227
12.3.2;Knowledge Management Technologies in SEAMLESS;228
12.4;An Architecture for Knowledge Integration in Integrated Assessment Studies;230
12.4.1;The SEAMLESS-IF Architecture;230
12.4.2;The Role of Software Engineering in the Design of Integrated Assessment Tools;232
12.4.3;SEAMLESS Server Technologies;233
12.4.4;SEAMLESS Client Technologies;235
12.4.5;The SEAMLESS Knowledge Manager;236
12.4.6;OpenMI and Model Linking;238
12.5;Using SEAMLESS-IF for Integrated Assessment Studies;240
12.5.1;Starting a Project in SEAMLESS-IF (Pre-modelling Phase);240
12.5.2;Narrative Experiments;242
12.5.3;Indicator Selector and Fact Sheet Viewer;242
12.5.4;Constrained Choice of the Model Chain by Scale Selection (Modelling Phase);243
12.5.5;Detailed Specification of Experiments;244
12.5.6;Chain Execution, Server-Side Queuing Model Execution and Client-Side Monitoring;244
12.5.7;The Visualization Environment (Post-modelling Phase);245
12.6;Conclusions;246
12.7;References;247
13;Chapter 10 Evaluating Integrated Assessment Tools for Policy Support;251
13.1;Introduction;251
13.2;Deriving a General Approach to Evaluate IA Tools;252
13.2.1;Three Phases to Evaluate an Integrated Framework;253
13.2.2;Using Case Studies to Guide Evaluation and Development of the Integrated Framework;255
13.3;Conceptual Evaluation;256
13.3.1;Conceptual Evaluation of the Procedure for Using the Integrated Framework;257
13.3.2;Conceptual Evaluation of Quantitative Tools;259
13.3.3;Conceptual Evaluation of User Interfaces;260
13.4;Technical Evaluation;261
13.4.1;Technical Evaluation of Procedures for Using the Integrated Framework;261
13.4.2;Technical Evaluation of Quantitative Tools;261
13.4.3;Technical Evaluation of the User Interface;262
13.5;System Evaluation;263
13.5.1;System Evaluation of Procedures for Using the Integrated Framework;263
13.5.2;System Evaluation of Quantitative Tools;264
13.5.3;System Evaluation of the User Interface;264
13.6;Some More Lessons to Organize the Evaluation of an Integrated Framework;264
13.6.1;Use of Prototypes;265
13.6.2;Use of Case Studies;266
13.6.3;Timing of Testing;266
13.6.4;Independent Testers;267
13.6.5;Multidisciplinarity;267
13.6.6;Separating End-Users and Modellers;268
13.7;References;268
14;Chapter 11 A Comparison of CAPRI and SEAMLESS-IF as Integrated Modelling Systems;271
14.1;Introduction;271
14.2;Short Description of the CAPRI Modelling System and Its Integration in SEAMLESS-IF;272
14.3;Comparing Objectives and Structure;275
14.4;Differences in Concepts for Database and Coverage;276
14.5;Concepts of Linking Models/Components;277
14.6;The Farm Type Models in Both Systems;278
14.7;Calibration of Farm Type and Regional Programming Models;279
14.8;Technology and Externalities;280
14.9;Modelling of Policies at Farm Level;281
14.10;Agri-environmental Indicators;281
14.11;Baseline Generation for Forward Looking Impact Assessment;282
14.12;Graphical User Interface;283
14.13;Looking into the Future;284
14.14;Conclusions;286
14.15;References;286
15;Chapter 12 Science–Policy Interfaces in Impact Assessment Procedures;289
15.1;Introduction;289
15.2;Motive and Aim of the European Impact Assessment System;291
15.2.1;Impact Assessment as Part of the Dynamics of Policy;291
15.2.2;IA as a Learning Process;292
15.3;Conceptualizing Science–Policy Interactions in SEAMLESS-IF Application;293
15.3.1;The SEAMLESS-IF Impact Assessment Procedure;293
15.3.2;The SEAMLESS-IF Outputs as Science–Policy Interface;296
15.4;Case Studies: Establishing a Debate;297
15.4.1;Case: Interacting with the EC;298
15.4.1.1;Forming a Platform for Interaction;298
15.4.1.2;Positive and Negative Feedback from a User Perspective;299
15.4.1.3;Which Type of User Interface for Whom?;301
15.4.1.4;Strategic Motives Behind Requests for Technical Performance and Knowledge Content;301
15.4.1.5;Concluding Remark on the UF Experience;303
15.4.2;Case: Interacting with Regional Organisations;303
15.4.2.1;General Feedback on the Pre-modelling Process;304
15.4.2.2;The Framing Process;304
15.4.2.3;Specification of the Policy Option;305
15.4.2.4;Concluding Remark on the Regional Test Experiences;305
15.5;Conclusions;306
15.6;References;307
16;Chapter 13 Economic Principles of Monetary Valuation in Evaluation Studies;309
16.1;Introduction;309
16.2;Methods for Valuing Biological Assets;312
16.2.1;Non-demand Approaches;312
16.2.2;Demand Approaches: Revealed Preference and Stated Preference Methods;313
16.2.2.1;Travel Cost Method;313
16.2.2.2;Hedonic Pricing Method;314
16.2.2.3;Contingent Valuation Method;314
16.2.2.4;Choice Modelling;316
16.2.2.5;Benefit Transfer;317
16.3;Monetary Values of Changes in Agro-biodiversity: Some Examples;318
16.4;Monetary Valuation and Agricultural Policy;320
16.4.1;Estimating Social Costs and Benefits;320
16.4.2;Aggregation of Costs and Benefits;322
16.5;The Role of Monetary Valuation Methods in SEAMLESS;324
16.6;Conclusions;326
16.7;References;327