Gasparini / Manfredi / Zschau Earthquake Early Warning Systems

1. Auflage 2007
ISBN: 978-3-540-72241-0
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 350 Seiten

The book provides information on the major EEW systems in operation and on the state-of-the-art of the different blocks forming an EW system: the rapid detection and estimation of the earthquake's focal parameters, the signal transmission, the engineering interface and the information reliability/false alarm problem. It is the first time that so many aspects of EEW systems have been specifically focused upon within a single book.

Paolo Gasparini, is Full Professor of Geophysics at the University of Napoli Federico II and President of Center of Competence AMRA. He is Advisor for Environment to the EC Commissioner of Research. He was President of IAVCEI. His activities include the assessment of volcanic and seismic hazard and risk. He is on the steering committee of the EC SAFER project on seismic early warning. Gaetano Manfredi, is Full Professor of Structural Design at the University of Napoli Federico II and Head of the Department of Structural Engineering. He is President of RELUIS (The Italian Network of University Seismic Engineering Labs) and a member of the Board of the Directors of AMRA. His activity is focused on seismic engineering and innovative materials. He is WP leader of the SAFER project. Jochen Zschau is Full professor at the University of Potsdam and Director of the Department 'Physics of the Earth' at the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ). His scientific focus is on earthquake and volcanoes research. He was vice president of the European Seismological Commission. He is one of the leaders of the Indonesian-German Tsunami Early Warning System being set up in the Indian Ocean. He is coordinator of the EC SAFER project on seismic early warning.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Gasparini, Paolo

Manfredi, Gaetano

Zschau, Jochen

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Preface;5
2;Contents;12
3;List of Contributors;19
4;1 Real-time Earthquake Damage Mitigation Measures;23
4.1;Abstract;23
4.2;1.1 Introduction;23
4.3;1.2 Post-Earthquake-Information and Earthquake Early Warning;24
4.4;1.3 Implementation and Associated Problems;27
4.5;1.4 Basic Research on Seismology and Earthquake Early Warning;29
4.6;References;29
5;2 Can Earthquake Size be Controlled by the Initial Seconds of Rupture?;31
5.1;Abstract;31
5.2;2.1 Introduction;31
5.3;2.2 Statement of the Problem;32
5.4;2.3 Fracture, Barriers and Energy Concepts ;32
5.5;2.4 Defining and Quantifying Fracture Energy ;34
5.6;2.5 Energy Flow, Moment Rate and Dominant Period ;39
5.7;2.6 Predictive Statement on Final Rupture Size ;41
5.8;References;41
6;3 The ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning Methodology and Application across California;43
6.1;Abstract;43
6.2;3.1 Introduction;44
6.3;3.2 The ElarmS Methodology;45
6.4;3.3 Accuracy and Timeliness of Warnings;50
6.5;3.4 Warning Time Distributions for Northern California;55
6.6;3.5 Earthquake Warning Outlook;62
6.7;3.6 Acknowledgments;63
6.8;References;63
7;4 Real-time Estimation of Earthquake Magnitude for Seismic Early Warning;66
7.1;Abstract;66
7.2;4.1 Introduction;66
7.3;4.2 Strong-Motion Data Analysis;70
7.4;4.3 Discussion and Conclusions;79
7.5;4.4 Acknowledgements;83
7.6;References;83
8;5 A New Approach to Earthquake Early Warning;85
8.1;Abstract;85
8.2;5.1 Introduction;86
8.3;5.2 Method;88
8.4;5.3 Database;91
8.5;5.4 Results;94
8.6;5.5 Conclusions;100
8.7;5.6 Acknowledgments;101
8.8;References;101
9;6 Optimal, Real-time Earthquake Location for Early Warning;104
9.1;Abstract;104
9.2;6.1 Introduction;104
9.3;6.2 Method;106
9.4;6.3 Location tests;109
9.5;6.4 Discussion;113
9.6;6.5 Acknowledgements;114
9.7;References;114
10;7 The Virtual Seismologist (VS) Method: a Bayesian Approach to Earthquake Early Warning;116
10.1;Abstract;116
10.2;7.1 Introduction;117
10.3;7.2 Real-time Earthquake Source Estimation;118
10.4;7.3 Applications of the VS Method to Selected Southern California Earthquake Datasets;127
10.5;7.4 How Subscribers Might Use Early Warning Information;140
10.6;7.5 Station Density and the Evolution of Estimate Uncertainties;143
10.7;7.6 Conclusions;149
10.8;7.7 Acknowledgements;149
10.9;References;149
11;8 A Strong Motion Attenuation Relation for Early-warning Application in the Campania Region ( Southern Apennines);152
11.1;Abstract;152
11.2;8.1 Introduction;153
11.3;8.2 Database and Scaling Laws;154
11.4;8.3 Peak Ground-motion Simulation;156
11.5;8.4 Regression Analysis;163
11.6;8.5 Conclusions;169
11.7;8.6 Acknowledgments;170
11.8;References;170
12;9 Quantitative Seismic Hazard Assessment;172
12.1;Abstract;172
12.2;9.1 Introduction;173
12.3;9.2 Crustal and Surface Velocity Reconstruction Using Passive and Active Data Acquisition Systems;173
12.4;9.3 Source Description for a Given Seismo-tectonic Zone;177
12.5;9.4 Challenging Issues of Seismic Wave Propagation in 3D Heterogeneous Media;179
12.6;9.5 Quantification of the Dispersion of Ground Motion Estimation;184
12.7;9.6 Discussion and Conclusions;187
12.8;9.7 Acknowledgments;188
12.9;References;188
13;10 Seismic Early Warning Systems: Procedure for Automated Decision Making;197
13.1;Abstract;197
13.2;10.1 Introduction;198
13.3;10.2 Ground Motion Prediction Process in Seismic EWS;202
13.4;10.3 Probability of Wrong Decisions: Pre-installation Analysis;206
13.5;10.4 Threshold Design Based on Cost-Benefit Considerations;212
13.6;10.5 Decision Making in EWS during a Seismic Event;215
13.7;10.6 Application of EWS;218
13.8;10.7 Concluding Remarks;225
13.9;References;226
14;11 The Crywolf Issue in Earthquake Early Warning Applications for the Campania Region;228
14.1;Abstract;228
14.2;11.1 Introduction;229
14.3;11.2 Seismic Risk Analysis Conditioned to the Earthquake Early Warning System;231
14.4;11.3 Decisional Rule, False and Missed Alarms;235
14.5;11.4 Simulation of the SAMS Earthquake Early Warning System;237
14.6;11.5 Conclusions;246
14.7;11.6 Acknowledgements;247
14.8;References;247
15;12 Earthquake Early Warning and Engineering Application Prospects;250
15.1;Abstract;250
15.2;12.1 Specific vs. Regional EEWS;251
15.3;12.2 Real-Time Seismology and Hybrid Systems;254
15.4;12.3 Applicability Potential of EEWS;257
15.5;12.4 Beyond the False Alarms: the Loss Estimation Approach to Early Warning;259
15.6;12.5 Concluding Remarks: Future Prospects of Seismic Early Warning Engineering;262
15.7;References;263
16;13 UrEDAS, the Earthquake Warning System: Today and Tomorrow;265
16.1;Abstract;265
16.2;13.1 Introduction;266
16.3;13.2 The History of Early Warning;268
16.4;13.3 UrEDAS;274
16.5;13.4 Compact UrEDAS;280
16.6;13.5 Operating Conditions;282
16.7;13.6 Challenges for Earlier Estimation with High Accuracy;293
16.8;13.7 Conclusion;294
16.9;13.8 Acknowledgment;295
16.10;References;296
16.11;Appendix;297
17;14 State of the Art and Progress in the Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan;298
17.1;Abstract;298
17.2;14.1 Introduction;299
17.3;14.2 Physical Basis for Earthquake Early Warning and its Benefits;300
17.4;14.3 Progress in Earthquake Early Warning in Taiwan;301
17.5;14.4 Current Regional Warning System;303
17.6;14.5 Onsite Warning Methods;313
17.7;14.6. Prospects;318
17.8;14.7 Acknowledgements;319
17.9;References;319
18;15 FREQL and AcCo for a Quick Response to Earthquakes;322
18.1;Abstract;322
18.2;15.1 Introduction;323
18.3;15.2 Real-time Seismology and Real-time Earthquake Engineering as a Disaster Prevention Tool;325
18.4;15.3 Proposal for a Reasonable Earthquake Index for the Alarm;326
18.5;15.4 AcCo;333
18.6;15.5 FREQL;337
18.7;15.6 Conclusion;339
18.8;References;339
19;16 Development and Testing of an Advanced Monitoring Infrastructure ( ISNet) for Seismic Early- warning Applications in the Campania Region of Southern Italy;340
19.1;Abstract;340
19.2;16.1 Introduction;341
19.3;16.2 ISNet Architecture and Site Installation;342
19.4;16.3 Early-warning Prototype;349
19.5;References;356
20;17 An Early Warning System for Deep Vrancea ( Romania) Earthquakes;357
20.1;Abstract;357
20.2;References;363