Gramelsberger / Feichter Climate Change and Policy

The Calculability of Climate Change and the Challenge of Uncertainty
1. Auflage 2011
ISBN: 978-3-642-17700-2
Verlag: Springer
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 241 Seiten

The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances.As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the 'nature' of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today's attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail?The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the 'nature' of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today's attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? Gabriele Gramelsberger is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project

Gabriele Gramelsberger investigates as a science philosopher at the FU Berlin the influence of computer based simulations as new scientific tools for knowledge production, in particular in climate research. Since 2002 she is a member of the BBAW initiative 'Science Policy Studies'. 2007 she received the Blankesee-Colloquium Award from the presidents of the Berlin universities and academies.              Johann Feichter is head of the group 'Aerosols, Clouds and Climate' at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg. He worked on the development of the German climate model and contributed to the 3rd and 4th IPCC assessment reports.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Gramelsberger, Gabriele

Feichter, Johann

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Contents;8
2;Foreword;6
3;Chapter 1: Introduction to the Volume;10
3.1;References;17
4;Chapter 2: Modelling the Climate System: An Overview;18
4.1;2.1 Understanding the Climate System;19
4.1.1;2.1.1 Climate Stability;19
4.1.2;2.1.2 The Physical and Mechanical Understanding of Climate;20
4.1.3;2.1.3 Greenhouse Effect and Climate Sensitivity;24
4.1.4;2.1.4 Climate Variability;27
4.2;2.2 The Need for Numerical Models in Science;28
4.2.1;2.2.1 From Observation to Forecasting;28
4.2.2;2.2.2 Meteorology as Physics of the Atmosphere;32
4.2.3;2.2.3 Limitations of Analysis and the Need for Numerical Methods;35
4.2.4;2.2.4 Introduction of Computers and Forecasting Algorithms;37
4.3;2.3 Calculating the Climate System;40
4.3.1;2.3.1 The Advent of Computational Meteorology;41
4.3.2;2.3.2 Model Building-Dynamic Core;44
4.3.3;2.3.3 Model Building-Subscale Parametrization;47
4.3.4;2.3.4 Simulation Runs;51
4.4;2.4 International Coordination of Climate Modelling;53
4.4.1;2.4.1 The International Structure of Climate Research;54
4.4.2;2.4.2 Standardization of Methods, Formats, and Data;59
4.4.3;2.4.3 Community-Based Cyberinfrastructure;62
4.4.4;2.4.4 The IPCC Rhythm of Model Development and CMIP;67
4.5;2.5 Climate Projections and the Challenge of Uncertainty;71
4.5.1;2.5.1 Mankind´s Dream of Rational Forecasting;72
4.5.2;2.5.2 The Challenge of Uncertainty;74
4.5.3;2.5.3 Climate Scenarios and Storylines;78
4.5.4;2.5.4 Model Evaluation and Intercomparison;82
4.6;2.6 Scientific Arguments for Socio-Political Decisions;88
4.7;References;92
5;Chapter 3: Climate Simulation, Uncertainty, and Policy Advice - The Case of the IPCC;100
5.1;3.1 Introduction;100
5.2;3.2 The IPCC as a Boundary Organization Between Science and Politics;102
5.3;3.3 The IPCC Review Process;107
5.4;3.4 Sceptical Criticism of the IPCC Review Process;111
5.5;3.5 Negotiating the Wording of the Summary for Policymakers;115
5.6;3.6 Conclusion;117
5.7;References;119
6;Chapter 4: Dealing with Uncertainty - From Climate Research to Integrated Assessment of Policy Options;121
6.1;4.1 Introduction;121
6.2;4.2 Uncertainty in GMT Projections;123
6.3;4.3 Estimating the Proximity to Thresholds;127
6.4;4.4 Extracting Response Time Scales;128
6.5;4.5 Climate Projection Statistics as a Philosophical Battlefield;128
6.6;4.6 Deriving Sustainable Solutions Under Uncertainty;131
6.7;References;132
7;Chapter 5: Uncertainty in Climate Policy - Impacts on Market Mechanisms;135
7.1;5.1 Introduction;135
7.2;5.2 Uncertainty in International Climate Policy;137
7.3;5.3 The State of the Carbon Market and the Influence of Real and Perceived Uncertainties on Prices of Carbon;139
7.3.1;5.3.1 The Regulatory Framework of the Carbon Market;139
7.3.2;5.3.2 Pricing of Emission Credits;142
7.4;5.4 Interaction of Key Actors in the Kyoto/CDM Market and Their Influence and Challenges with Uncertainty;146
7.4.1;5.4.1 External Market Actors;146
7.4.2;5.4.2 Internal Actors;148
7.5;5.5 Conclusion and Final Remarks;150
7.6;References;150
8;Chapter 6: Insuring Climate Change - Managing Political and Economic Uncertainties in Flood Management;153
8.1;6.1 Introduction;153
8.2;6.2 The Insurability of Natural Hazards;155
8.3;6.3 The Varying Insurability of Floods;156
8.3.1;6.3.1 Insurable, Hence Insured;157
8.3.2;6.3.2 Not Insured, but Insurable;158
8.3.3;6.3.3 Ambiguity: Insured, yet Uninsurable;159
8.3.4;6.3.4 Discussion;159
8.4;6.4 Risk;160
8.5;6.5 Analysis and Concluding Remarks;163
8.6;References;164
9;Chapter 7: Climate Science, Weather and Climate Engineering, and Scientific Objectivity;167
9.1;7.1 Introduction;167
9.2;7.2 The Science of Weather Modification;167
9.3;7.3 Climate Variability;169
9.4;7.4 Climate Engineering and Politics;173
9.5;7.5 The Science vs. Politics Conflict;174
9.6;References;176
10;Chapter 8: Utilizing Participatory Scenario-Based Approaches to Design Proactive Responses to Climate Change in the Face of Uncertainties;178
10.1;8.1 Introduction;178
10.2;8.2 Key Characteristics and Approaches for Dealing with Climate Change Uncertainty;180
10.2.1;8.2.1 Characteristics of Climate Change Uncertainties;180
10.2.2;8.2.2 Dealing with Uncertainty to Promote Mitigation and Adaptation Responses to Climate Change;182
10.3;8.3 British Columbia Case Studies;185
10.3.1;8.3.1 The Georgia Basin Futures Project;185
10.3.2;8.3.2 The Local Climate Change Visioning Project;189
10.4;8.4 Opportunities for Designing Responses to Climate Change despite Uncertainties;193
10.5;References;195
11;Chapter 9: Image Politics: Picturing Uncertainty. The Role of Images in Climatology and Climate Policy;198
11.1;9.1 What is Expected of Informational Images;198
11.2;9.2 The Status of Scientific Images;200
11.3;9.3 An Abnormal Truth;201
11.4;9.4 The Red Blade of a Hockey Stick;205
11.5;9.5 Collages of Time and Space: Picturing Possible Futures;210
11.6;9.6 Conclusions: The Role of Pictures of Climate Change;212
11.7;References;214
12;About the Authors;217
13;Abbreviations and Glossary;222
14;Index;242