Heckmann Towards Supply Chain Risk Analytics

Fundamentals, Simulation, Optimization
1. Auflage 2016
ISBN: 978-3-658-14870-6
Verlag: Springer
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 419 Seiten

In this thesis, Iris Heckmann develops a profound conceptual basis of supply chain risk analytics. She transfers the newly defined concepts for the modelling and operationalization of supply chain risk within simulation and optimization approaches, in order to ease unexpected deviations and disruptions, which are subsumed under the notion of supply chain risk, increasingly aggravating the planning and optimization of supply chains.

Iris Heckmann started as a research scientist at the FZI Research Centre for Information Technology in Karlsruhe and headed the department of Risk-aware Logistics: Supply Chain and Health. Since April 2016 she is division head of the research division Information Process Engineering. Her research focuses on developing mathematical optimization approaches for supply chain risk analytics.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Heckmann, Iris

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Acknowledgments;5
2;Abstract;7
3;Contents;9
4;List of Figures;14
5;List of Tables;19
6;1 Introduction;21
6.1;1.1 Motivation for Beginners;21
6.2;1.2 Advanced Risk;25
6.3;1.3 The Real Introduction: The Name of the Game;28
6.4;1.4 Outline and Course of Discussion;32
7;Part I Supply Chain Risk Concepts – Fundamentals;36
7.1;2 The Genesis of Supply Chain Risk;37
7.1.1;2.1 Logistics Innovations – A Blessing and a Curse;38
7.1.2;2.2 Supply Chain Disruptions;41
7.1.2.1;2.2.1 Environmental Disruptions;47
7.1.2.2;2.2.2 Economic Disruptions;48
7.1.2.3;2.2.3 Socio-Geopolitical Disruptions;51
7.1.2.4;2.2.4 Technological Disruptions;52
7.1.3;2.3 Coping with Risk;53
7.1.3.1;2.3.1 Enterprise Risk;53
7.1.3.2;2.3.2 Following the footsteps of Management;55
7.1.3.3;2.3.3 Identification needs Quantification – Quantification needs Definition;58
7.2;3 A New Definition of Supply Chain Risk;60
7.2.1;3.1 The Evolution of Risk;62
7.2.2;3.2 Requirements for a Definition of Supply Chain Risk;64
7.2.3;3.3 Existing Approaches of Supply Chain Risk Definitions;65
7.2.4;3.4 Core Characteristics of Supply Chain Risk;67
7.2.4.1;3.4.1 Risk Objective;69
7.2.4.2;3.4.2 Risk Exposition;73
7.2.4.3;3.4.3 Risk Attitude;89
7.2.5;3.5 Re-defining Supply Chain Risk;91
7.3;4 Supply Chain Risk Analysis – Common Flaws, Core Areas, and Main Tasks;93
7.3.1;4.1 The Risk of Supply Chain Risk Analysis;95
7.3.1.1;4.1.1 Biases of Risk Identification;99
7.3.1.2;4.1.2 Biases of Risk Countermeasures;104
7.3.1.3;4.1.3 Breaking of Biases;111
7.3.2;4.2 Main Elements of Supply Chain Risk Analysis;112
7.3.2.1;4.2.1 Analysis of Potential Triggers;112
7.3.2.2;4.2.2 Analysis of Performance Measurement;123
7.3.2.3;4.2.3 Analysis of Supply Chain Constitution;133
7.3.3;4.3 Tasks of Supply Chain Risk Analysis;143
7.4;5 Supply Chain Risk Analytics;146
7.4.1;5.1 Supply Chain Risk Analytics – Concept Definition;147
7.4.2;5.2 The Value of Supply Chain Risk Analytics;150
7.4.2.1;5.2.1 Risk Acceptance;152
7.4.2.2;5.2.2 Risk Reduction Measures;155
7.4.2.3;5.2.3 Risk Spreading Measures;164
7.4.3;5.3 Quantification Measures for Supply Chain Risk;167
7.4.3.1;5.3.1 Deviation Measures;168
7.4.3.2;5.3.2 Downside Risk;168
7.4.3.3;5.3.3 Expected Values;169
7.4.3.4;5.3.4 Probability and other measures;170
7.4.4;5.4 Risk-aware Supply Chain Optimization;172
7.4.4.1;5.4.1 Modeling Approaches;173
7.4.4.2;5.4.2 Solution Techniques;176
7.4.5;5.5 Research Gaps;176
8;Part II Supply Chain Risk Identification and Assessment – Simulation-based Framework;178
8.1;6 Simulation for Supply Chain Analysis;179
8.1.1;6.1 Simulation at a Glance;181
8.1.1.1;6.1.1 Basics;181
8.1.1.2;6.1.2 Technical entities of Simulation Tools;185
8.1.1.3;6.1.3 Simulation Paradigms;186
8.1.2;6.2 Simulation of Supply Chain Problems;189
8.1.3;6.3 Simulation and Optimization;190
8.2;7 Design, Metamodeling, and Analysis of Simulation Experiments;194
8.2.1;7.1 Meta-Models;197
8.2.2;7.2 Designs;200
8.2.2.1;7.2.1 Purpose of Design;201
8.2.2.2;7.2.2 Classic Factorial Designs;206
8.2.2.3;7.2.3 Design construction;209
8.2.3;7.3 Analysis;211
8.2.3.1;7.3.1 Regression Analysis;212
8.2.3.2;7.3.2 Method of Least Squares;213
8.2.3.3;7.3.3 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA);215
8.2.3.4;7.3.4 Measures of Factor Effects;215
8.2.4;7.4 Illustrative Examples;219
8.2.4.1;7.4.1 A 2 Full Factorial Experiment for the Analysis of Production Characteristics;219
8.2.4.2;7.4.2 A 2 Fractional Factorial Experiment for the Analysis of Production Characteristics;224
8.2.5;7.5 Cautions with the Design of Experiments;226
8.3;8 A Simulation-based Approach for Supply Chain Risk Analysis (SimSCRF);229
8.3.1;8.1 Requirements;230
8.3.2;8.2 A New Approach for Supply Chain Risk Analysis – Basic Models;232
8.3.2.1;8.2.1 Scenario-based Procedure;232
8.3.2.2;8.2.2 Screening Procedure;239
8.3.2.3;8.2.3 Procedure for Risk Quantification;241
8.3.3;8.3 Summarized Main Features of the Approach;245
8.4;9 Representative Master Planning Module for Supply Chains;247
8.4.1;9.1 Planning Tasks of Supply Chains;248
8.4.2;9.2 Mathematical formulation of a Master Planning Problem;250
8.4.2.1;9.2.1 Determinants;253
8.4.2.2;9.2.2 Objective Function;259
8.4.2.3;9.2.3 Restrictions;260
8.5;10 A Conceptual Information Meta-Model for Supply Chains;273
8.5.1;10.1 Requirements for a Supply Chain Information Meta-Model;274
8.5.2;10.2 Related Work;276
8.5.3;10.3 Modeling Supply Chain Information;278
8.5.3.1;10.3.1 Concepts;278
8.5.3.2;10.3.2 Properties;280
8.5.3.3;10.3.3 Relations;280
8.5.3.4;10.3.4 Constraints;281
8.5.4;10.4 A Supply Chain Model;283
8.6;11 A Real Case Evaluation of the SimSCRF Approach;289
8.6.1;11.1 The Case;291
8.6.2;11.2 Contemporary Risk Quantification;293
8.6.3;11.3 A new View on Supply Chain Risk Analysis;298
8.6.4;11.4 Supply Chain Risk Analysis;300
8.6.4.1;11.4.1 Work Flow;300
8.6.4.2;11.4.2 Effect Analysis;312
8.6.4.3;11.4.3 Risk Line Identification;315
8.6.5;11.5 Conclusions and Outlook;320
9;Part III Strategic Supply Chain Risk Mitigation – Optimization Approaches;322
9.1;12 Embedding Comprehensive Risk in Supply Chain Network Design Models;323
9.1.1;12.1 Mathematical Model Formulations;326
9.1.1.1;12.1.1 Notations;326
9.1.1.2;12.1.2 The Risk-aware Capacitated Plant Location Problem (CPLP-Risk);329
9.1.2;12.2 Illustrative Example;337
9.1.2.1;12.2.1 Data Input;338
9.1.2.2;12.2.2 Solution Plausibility;343
9.1.2.3;12.2.3 The Value of Risk Consideration;349
9.1.2.4;12.2.4 Quantification of Supply Chain Risk;353
9.1.3;12.3 Preliminary Computational Results;355
9.1.4;12.4 Model Extensions;364
9.1.4.1;12.4.1 Model Extensions for the Affected Supply Chain;364
9.1.4.2;12.4.2 Model Extensions for the Risk Objective;367
9.1.4.3;12.4.3 Model Extensions for the Risk Attitude;368
9.1.5;12.5 Conclusions and Outlook;370
9.2;13 Conclusions and Outlook;372
9.2.1;13.1 Conlusions;373
9.2.2;13.2 Outlook;378
10;Bibliography;381