Kemper Valuation of Network Effects in Software Markets

A Complex Networks Approach
1. Auflage 2009
ISBN: 978-3-7908-2367-7
Verlag: Physica-Verlag
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Wasserzeichen (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 309 Seiten

The customer base is an important value driver of software companies and a reliable prediction of its development is fundamental for investment decisions. A particularity in software markets is that an individual's purchasing decision is often influenced by other users' choices. Although such customer network effects are evident, their quantitative assessment remain elusive with conventional approaches. This book contributes to closing this gap by developing methods for measuring network effects and their implications for valuation in software markets. Based on the theory of complex networks the book reveals that such diffusion processes highly depend on structural properties of customer networks. Moreover, it depicts that such insights are contributions to improve the quality of valuations in software markets. But the implications of this research also comprise social and political aspects as they can be applied in order to prevent corporate failures in all network effect markets.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Kemper, Andreas

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Valuation of Network Effects in Software Markets;2
1.1;Part I Introduction;16
1.1.1;1 Background and Motivation;17
1.1.1.1;1.1 Research Objectives;19
1.1.1.2;1.2 Research Design;21
1.1.1.3;1.3 Scale and Scope of the Research;22
1.1.1.4;1.4 Target Audience;23
1.1.1.5;1.5 Course of Analysis;23
1.2;Part II Valuation in Modern Software Markets;26
1.2.1;2 Investment and Company Valuation;27
1.2.1.1;2.1 Principles of Investment Valuation;27
1.2.1.2;2.2 Traditional Investment Valuation;28
1.2.1.2.1;2.2.1 Asset Value Approach;29
1.2.1.2.2;2.2.2 Market Value Approach;29
1.2.1.2.3;2.2.3 Discounted Cash Flow Models;30
1.2.1.2.3.1;2.2.3.1 Entity Value Approach;31
1.2.1.2.3.2;2.2.3.2 Equity Value Approach;31
1.2.1.2.3.3;2.2.3.3 Adjusted Present Value Approach;32
1.2.1.3;2.3 Real Option Valuation;32
1.2.1.3.1;2.3.1 Option-Pricing Theory;33
1.2.1.3.2;2.3.2 Real Options Analogy;34
1.2.1.3.3;2.3.3 Typology of Real Options;34
1.2.1.3.4;2.3.4 Real Options Management Process;36
1.2.1.3.5;2.3.5 Real Options in Practice;38
1.2.1.3.6;2.3.6 Reconsideration of Real Options;39
1.2.2;3 Modern Software Markets;41
1.2.2.1;3.1 Principles of Software Markets;41
1.2.2.2;3.2 Fundamental Trends in Software Markets;44
1.2.2.3;3.3 Characteristics of Software Markets;46
1.2.2.3.1;3.3.1 Short Product Life Cycles;47
1.2.2.3.2;3.3.2 Hypercompetition and Disruptive Innovations;48
1.2.2.3.3;3.3.3 Intangible Assets;48
1.2.2.3.4;3.3.4 Information Goods;49
1.2.2.3.5;3.3.5 Nonrivalry;49
1.2.2.3.6;3.3.6 Property Right Protection;49
1.2.2.3.7;3.3.7 Peculiar Cost Structure;50
1.2.2.3.8;3.3.8 Supply-Side Economies of Scale;51
1.2.2.3.9;3.3.9 Information Overload and Trust;51
1.2.2.3.10;3.3.10 Startup Companies;51
1.2.2.3.11;3.3.11 Network Effects;52
1.2.2.3.12;3.3.12 Reconsideration of Characteristics of SoftwareMarkets;52
1.2.3;4 Reconsideration of Valuation in Software Markets;54
1.2.3.1;4.1 Reconsideration of Traditional Investment Valuation;54
1.2.3.1.1;4.1.1 Reconsideration of the Asset Value Approach;54
1.2.3.1.2;4.1.2 Reconsideration of the Market Value Approach;55
1.2.3.1.3;4.1.3 Reconsideration of the Discounted Cash FlowApproaches;55
1.2.3.2;4.2 Reconsideration of Real Options Approaches for Valuation in Software Markets;57
1.2.3.3;4.3 Reconsideration of Option Pricing Models for Valuation in Software Markets;59
1.2.3.3.1;4.3.1 Analytical Solution Methods;61
1.2.3.3.2;4.3.2 Analytical Approximation Methods;61
1.2.3.3.3;4.3.3 Lattice Approaches;62
1.2.3.3.4;4.3.4 Finite Difference Methods;63
1.2.3.3.5;4.3.5 Numerical Integration;63
1.2.3.3.6;4.3.6 Simulations;63
1.2.3.3.7;4.3.7 Comparison of Option Pricing Models;64
1.2.3.4;4.4 Parametrization of Real Option Models;66
1.2.3.5;4.5 Specification of the Volatility;67
1.2.3.6;4.6 Specification of the Underlying;69
1.2.3.6.1;4.6.1 Probability Distributions;69
1.2.3.6.2;4.6.2 Stochastic Processes for Valuation in SoftwareMarkets;70
1.2.3.6.2.1;4.6.2.1 Markov Process;70
1.2.3.6.2.2;4.6.2.2 Wiener Process;70
1.2.3.6.2.3;4.6.2.3 Mean-Reversion Process;72
1.2.3.6.2.4;4.6.2.4 Diffusion Process;72
1.2.3.6.2.5;4.6.2.5 Jump Process;72
1.2.3.6.2.6;4.6.2.6 Jump-Diffusion Process;72
1.2.3.6.2.7;4.6.2.7 Reconsideration of Stochastic Processes for Valuation in Software Markets;73
1.2.3.7;4.7 Challenges of Valuations in Software Markets;73
1.3;Part III Modeling Network Effects in Software Markets;75
1.3.1;5 Network Economics in Software Markets;76
1.3.1.1;5.1 Principles of Network Economics;76
1.3.1.2;5.2 Typologies of Network Effects in Software Markets;79
1.3.1.2.1;5.2.1 Direct and Indirect Network Effects;79
1.3.1.2.2;5.2.2 Application, User, and System Effects;80
1.3.1.3;5.3 Properties of Network Effects in Software Markets;81
1.3.1.3.1;5.3.1 Feedback Loops;81
1.3.1.3.2;5.3.2 Hysteresis, Startup Problem and Critical Mass;82
1.3.1.3.3;5.3.3 Excess Momentum;83
1.3.1.3.4;5.3.4 Market Instability and Serial Monopolies;84
1.3.1.3.5;5.3.5 Compatibility;84
1.3.1.3.6;5.3.6 Multiple Market Equilibria;85
1.3.1.3.7;5.3.7 Multiple Product Generations;85
1.3.1.3.8;5.3.8 Pareto-Inferior Market Results;85
1.3.1.3.9;5.3.9 Competition For and In Software Markets;86
1.3.1.4;5.4 Empirical Evidence of Network Effectsin Software Markets;87
1.3.1.5;5.5 Network Effects in Selected Software Market Segments;89
1.3.1.5.1;5.5.1 Network Effects in Enterprise ResourcePlanning;89
1.3.1.5.2;5.5.2 Network Effects in Electronic Data Interchange;90
1.3.1.5.3;5.5.3 Network Effects in Office Suites;90
1.3.1.5.4;5.5.4 Network Effects in Social Network Services;91
1.3.1.5.5;5.5.5 Comparison of Software Market Segments;92
1.3.1.6;5.6 Reconsideration of Valuation in ModernSoftware Markets;92
1.3.2;6 Customer-Equity Valuation in Software Markets;94
1.3.2.1;6.1 Principles of Customer Equity Valuation;94
1.3.2.1.1;6.1.1 Revenue Parameter in CLV Models;95
1.3.2.1.2;6.1.2 Cost Parameter in CLV Models;96
1.3.2.1.3;6.1.3 Retention Rate Parameter in CLV Models;97
1.3.2.2;6.2 DCF Customer Equity Model;97
1.3.2.2.1;6.2.1 Generic Customer Lifetime Value;98
1.3.2.2.2;6.2.2 Individual Customer Lifetime Value;98
1.3.2.2.3;6.2.3 Value of Initial Customer Cohort;98
1.3.2.2.4;6.2.4 Total Customer Equity;99
1.3.2.2.5;6.2.5 Customer-Based Corporate Value;99
1.3.2.2.6;6.2.6 Discussion of the DCF CEV-Model;99
1.3.2.3;6.3 Real Options Customer Equity Model;100
1.3.2.3.1;6.3.1 Inverse Mean Reversion Model;101
1.3.2.3.2;6.3.2 Customer Equity Model;102
1.3.2.3.3;6.3.3 Numerical Example of Customer Value;103
1.3.2.3.4;6.3.4 Discussion of the ROV CEV-Model;105
1.3.2.4;6.4 Reconsideration of Customer Equity Valuation;105
1.3.3;7 Adoption and Diffusion Models for Software Markets;106
1.3.3.1;7.1 Software Diffusion Models;106
1.3.3.1.1;7.1.1 Fundamental Diffusion Models;107
1.3.3.1.1.1;7.1.1.1 Exponential Diffusion Model;108
1.3.3.1.1.2;7.1.1.2 Logistic Diffusion Model;108
1.3.3.1.1.3;7.1.1.3 Semi-Logistic Diffusion Model;109
1.3.3.1.2;7.1.2 Markov Matrix Diffusion Model;109
1.3.3.1.2.1;7.1.2.1 Principles of a Markov Matrix Eigenvalue Analysis;110
1.3.3.1.2.2;7.1.2.2 Markov Representation of a Software Diffusion Process;111
1.3.3.1.2.3;7.1.2.3 Reconsideration of a Software Diffusion Process;115
1.3.3.2;7.2 Software Adoption Models;115
1.3.3.2.1;7.2.1 Technology Acceptance Model;116
1.3.3.2.2;7.2.2 Standardization Models;117
1.3.3.2.2.1;7.2.2.1 Centralized Standardization Model;118
1.3.3.2.2.2;7.2.2.2 Decentralized Standardization Model;119
1.3.3.3;7.3 Reconsideration of Software Adoptionand Diffusion Models;120
1.3.4;8 Network Effects Valuation FrameworkFor Software Markets;123
1.3.4.1;8.1 The Network Effects Valuation Framework;123
1.3.4.2;8.2 Corporate and Software Market Analysis;124
1.3.4.2.1;8.2.1 Structure of Software Market;124
1.3.4.2.2;8.2.2 Value Driver of Software Companies;125
1.3.4.2.2.1;8.2.2.1 Value Driver in the Innovation Phase of Software Companies;126
1.3.4.2.2.2;8.2.2.2 Value Driver in the Expansion Phase of Software Companies;126
1.3.4.2.2.3;8.2.2.3 Value Driver in the Maturity Phase of Software Companies;126
1.3.4.2.2.4;8.2.2.4 Sales of the Software;126
1.3.4.2.2.5;8.2.2.5 Price of the Software;127
1.3.4.2.3;8.2.3 Cost Structure Analysis;127
1.3.4.3;8.3 Software Market Model;128
1.3.4.3.1;8.3.1 Scale and Scope of the Software Market Model;129
1.3.4.3.2;8.3.2 Implementation of the Software Market Model;130
1.3.4.3.2.1;8.3.2.1 Generation of a Customer Network Instance;130
1.3.4.3.2.2;8.3.2.2 Selection of a Software Adoption Algorithm;130
1.3.4.3.2.3;8.3.2.3 Storage of the Simulation Data;132
1.3.4.3.2.4;8.3.2.4 Analysis of the Network Data;132
1.3.4.3.2.5;8.3.2.5 Representation of the Network and Results;132
1.3.4.3.3;8.3.3 Simulation of the Software MarketDevelopment;132
1.3.4.3.4;8.3.4 Derivation of Data for Valuations in SoftwareMarkets;133
1.3.4.4;8.4 Software Company Valuation Model;134
1.3.4.4.1;8.4.1 Identification of Main Sources of Uncertainty;135
1.3.4.4.2;8.4.2 Selection of Option Pricing Model;136
1.3.4.4.3;8.4.3 Determination of Valuation Parameters;136
1.3.4.4.4;8.4.4 Calculation of Option Values;137
1.3.4.5;8.5 Sensitivity Analysis;138
1.3.5;9 Reconsideration of Network Effects in Software Markets;139
1.4;Part IV Modeling Customer Networks from a Complex Networks Perspective;141
1.4.1;10 Complex Networks Theory;142
1.4.1.1;10.1 Principles of Complex Networks Research;142
1.4.1.2;10.2 Relevant Properties of Complex Networks;144
1.4.1.2.1;10.2.1 Fundamentals of Complex Networks Theory;145
1.4.1.2.2;10.2.2 Degree, Indegree, Outdegree;146
1.4.1.2.3;10.2.3 Degree Distribution;146
1.4.1.2.4;10.2.4 Network Centrality and Structural Equivalence;147
1.4.1.2.5;10.2.5 Network Connectivity;147
1.4.1.2.5.1;10.2.5.1 Relative Network Density;147
1.4.1.2.5.2;10.2.5.2 Shortest Path and Characteristic Path Length;148
1.4.1.2.5.3;10.2.5.3 Network Diameter;148
1.4.1.2.6;10.2.6 Traversity, Clustering and Density;148
1.4.1.2.7;10.2.7 Assortative Mixing Patterns;149
1.4.1.2.8;10.2.8 Degree Correlations;150
1.4.1.2.9;10.2.9 Giant Component;150
1.4.1.3;10.3 Prototypical Network Topologies;151
1.4.1.3.1;10.3.1 Random Graph Networks;151
1.4.1.3.2;10.3.2 Small-World Networks;152
1.4.1.3.3;10.3.3 Scale-Free Networks;154
1.4.1.4;10.4 Evolution of Complex Networks;155
1.4.1.4.1;10.4.1 Cumulative Advantage Model;156
1.4.1.4.2;10.4.2 Preferential Attachment Model;156
1.4.1.5;10.5 Processes on Complex Networks;158
1.4.1.5.1;10.5.1 Epidemiology;159
1.4.1.5.1.1;10.5.1.1 SIR Model;159
1.4.1.5.1.2;10.5.1.2 SIS Model;161
1.4.1.5.2;10.5.2 Percolation and Phase Transitions;161
1.4.1.6;10.6 Derivation of Complex Networks Research Hypotheses;163
1.4.2;11 Complex Networks Adoption and Diffusion Simulator;165
1.4.2.1;11.1 Object-Oriented Software Engineering;165
1.4.2.2;11.2 Object-Oriented Requirements Analysis;166
1.4.2.2.1;11.2.1 Network Generation;167
1.4.2.2.2;11.2.2 Customer Adoption Rule;168
1.4.2.2.3;11.2.3 Network Visualization;169
1.4.2.2.4;11.2.4 Data Storage and Exchange;170
1.4.2.2.5;11.2.5 Extended Program Features;170
1.4.2.3;11.3 Object-Oriented Design;171
1.4.2.3.1;11.3.1 Design Patterns;171
1.4.2.4;11.4 Object-Oriented Implementation;172
1.4.2.4.1;11.4.1 Network Topology;173
1.4.2.4.2;11.4.2 Adoption Rule;174
1.4.2.4.2.1;11.4.2.1 Setup Costs;175
1.4.2.4.2.2;11.4.2.2 Direct Network Effects;175
1.4.2.4.2.3;11.4.2.3 Indirect Network Effects;175
1.4.2.4.3;11.4.3 Simplifications in the First Step;176
1.4.2.4.4;11.4.4 Package Structure of the Implementation;176
1.4.2.4.4.1;11.4.4.1 Package network;176
1.4.2.4.4.2;11.4.4.2 Packages network.impl and network.impl.jung;177
1.4.2.4.4.3;11.4.4.3 Packages visualization, visualization.impl and visualization.impl.jung;178
1.4.2.4.5;11.4.5 Package network.statistics;178
1.4.2.4.6;11.4.6 Package technology;179
1.4.2.4.7;11.4.7 Package simulator;181
1.4.2.5;11.5 Reconsideration of the Simulator;182
1.4.3;12 Complex Networks Analysis of Customer Networks;184
1.4.3.1;12.1 Diffusion Dynamics in Varying Network Topologies;184
1.4.3.1.1;12.1.1 Hypothesis on Diffusion Dynamics In Varying Network Topologies;184
1.4.3.1.2;12.1.2 Analysis of Diffusion Dynamics In Varying Network Topologies;185
1.4.3.1.2.1;Network Properties of Small-World Networks;185
1.4.3.1.2.2;Network Properties of Scale-Free Networks;191
1.4.3.1.2.3;Diffusion Dynamics in Software Markets;194
1.4.3.1.3;12.1.3 Reconsideration of Diffusion Dynamics In Varying Network Topologies;202
1.4.3.2;12.2 Scaling Properties of Complex Customer Networks;203
1.4.3.2.1;12.2.1 Hypothesis on Scaling Properties of Complex Customer Networks;203
1.4.3.2.2;12.2.2 Analysis of Scaling Properties in SoftwareMarkets;203
1.4.3.2.2.1;Invariance Hypothesis;203
1.4.3.2.2.2;Mean-Field Approximations;204
1.4.3.2.2.3;Simulation of Diffusions at Various Scales;204
1.4.3.2.3;12.2.3 Reconsideration of Scaling Properties of Complex Customer Networks;210
1.4.3.3;12.3 Network Topologies of Complex Customer Networks in Software Markets;210
1.4.3.3.1;12.3.1 Hypothesis on the Topology of Customer Networks in Software Markets;211
1.4.3.3.2;12.3.2 Analysis of the Topology of Customer Networks in Software Markets;211
1.4.3.3.2.1;Small-World Network Analyses of Social Networks;211
1.4.3.3.2.2;Opinion Leader in Complex Customer Networks;213
1.4.3.3.2.3;Case Study Xing AG;213
1.4.3.3.3;12.3.3 Reconsideration of Topology of Customer Networks in Software Markets;214
1.4.3.4;12.4 Contributions to Customer Network-Centric Valuation;214
1.4.3.4.1;12.4.1 Hypothesis on Contributions to Customer Network-Centric Valuation;214
1.4.3.4.2;12.4.2 Analysis of Contributions to Customer Network-Centric Valuation;215
1.4.3.4.2.1;Complex Networks Information as Contributions to Customer Network-Centric Valuation;215
1.4.3.4.2.2;Derivation of the Price of the Underlying;215
1.4.3.4.2.3;Derivation of the Volatility;218
1.4.3.4.3;12.4.3 Reconsideration of Contributions to Customer Network-Centric Valuation;223
1.4.3.5;12.5 Social vs. Natural Scientific Networks;224
1.4.3.5.1;12.5.1 Hypothesis on Social vs. Natural ScientificNetworks;224
1.4.3.5.2;12.5.2 Analysis of Social vs. Natural ScientificNetworks;224
1.4.3.5.3;12.5.3 Reconsideration of Social vs. Natural ScientificNetworks;226
1.4.3.6;12.6 Reconsideration of the Complex Networks Analysis of Customer Networks;226
1.4.4;13 Complex Networks Framework for Valuation in SoftwareMarkets;228
1.4.4.1;13.1 The Complex Networks Valuation Framework;228
1.4.4.2;13.2 Corporate and Software Market Analysis;230
1.4.4.2.1;13.2.1 Structure of Software Markets;231
1.4.4.2.2;13.2.2 Value Driver of Software Companies;232
1.4.4.2.2.1;Value Driver in the Innovation Phase of Software Companies;185
1.4.4.2.2.2;Value Driver in the Expansion Phase of Software Companies;191
1.4.4.2.2.3;Value Driver in the Maturity Phase of Software Companies;194
1.4.4.2.2.4;Sales of the Software;203
1.4.4.2.2.5;Price of the Software;204
1.4.4.2.3;13.2.3 Cost Structure Analysis;235
1.4.4.3;13.3 Complex Networks Software Market Model;236
1.4.4.3.1;13.3.1 Scale and Scope of the Complex Networks Software Market Model;236
1.4.4.3.2;13.3.2 Topology of the Complex Customer Networks;237
1.4.4.3.3;13.3.3 Implementation of the Complex Networks Software Market Model;238
1.4.4.3.3.1;Generation of a Customer Network Instance;204
1.4.4.3.3.2;Selection of a Customer Adoption Rule;211
1.4.4.3.3.3;Storage of the Simulation Data;213
1.4.4.3.3.4;Analysis of the Network Data;213
1.4.4.3.3.5;Representation of the Network and Results;215
1.4.4.3.4;13.3.4 Simulation of the Software MarketDevelopment;241
1.4.4.3.5;13.3.5 Derivation of Complex Network Data for Valuations in Software Markets;241
1.4.4.4;13.4 Complex Networks Software Company ValuationModel;243
1.4.4.4.1;13.4.1 Identification of Main Sources of Uncertainty;243
1.4.4.4.2;13.4.2 Selection of Option Pricing Model;244
1.4.4.4.3;13.4.3 Determination of Valuation Parameters;244
1.4.4.4.4;13.4.4 Calculation of Option Values;245
1.4.4.5;13.5 Sensitivity Analysis;245
1.4.5;14 Reconsideration of Complex Customer Networks in Software Markets;247
1.5;Part V Summary, Implications, Limitations, and Outlook;249
1.5.1;15 Summary of Findings;250
1.5.1.1;15.1 Main Findings;250
1.5.1.2;15.2 Insights on Valuation in Modern Software Markets;252
1.5.1.3;15.3 Insights on Modeling Network Effectsin Software Markets;253
1.5.1.4;15.4 Insights on Modeling Customer Networks from a Complex Networks Perspective;254
1.5.1.5;15.5 Reconsideration of Findings;255
1.5.2;16 Implications of Results;257
1.5.2.1;16.1 Implications for Management;257
1.5.2.1.1;16.1.1 Implications for Strategic Management;257
1.5.2.1.1.1;Modeling Product Diffusions in Software Markets;185
1.5.2.1.1.2;Software Design Strategies;191
1.5.2.1.1.3;Mega Institution Management;194
1.5.2.1.1.4;Innovation Portfolio Management;203
1.5.2.1.2;16.1.2 Implications For Marketing Strategies;260
1.5.2.1.2.1;Guerilla Marketing Strategy;204
1.5.2.1.2.2;Viral Marketing Strategy;204
1.5.2.1.2.3;Seed Marketing Strategy;211
1.5.2.1.2.4;User Generated Marketing Strategy;213
1.5.2.1.2.5;Vaporware in Software Markets;213
1.5.2.1.2.6;Opinion Leadership in Software Markets;215
1.5.2.1.2.7;Pricing Strategies in Software Markets;215
1.5.2.1.3;16.1.3 Implications For Turnaround Strategies;269
1.5.2.1.3.1;Intertemporal Resource Allocation;218
1.5.2.1.3.2;Undervaluation Problem;270
1.5.2.1.3.3;Cost Cutting Potential;270
1.5.2.1.3.4;Integrity of Internal and External Corporate Networks;271
1.5.2.2;16.2 Implications for Financial Sponsors;271
1.5.2.2.1;16.2.1 Business Plan Analysis;272
1.5.2.2.2;16.2.2 Critical Mass Turnaround FinancingOpportunities;272
1.5.2.2.3;16.2.3 Business Identification Tools;273
1.5.2.3;16.3 Implications for Research;274
1.5.2.3.1;16.3.1 Interdisciplinary Implications for Research;274
1.5.2.3.2;16.3.2 Implications for Financial Research;275
1.5.2.3.2.1;Convergence of Finance and Marketing Research;275
1.5.2.3.3;16.3.3 Implications for Network Economic Research;275
1.5.2.3.4;16.3.4 Implications for Complex Networks Research;276
1.5.2.3.4.1;Ubiquious Network Properties and Dynamics;276
1.5.2.3.4.2;Social Network Systems;277
1.5.2.3.4.3;Scaling Properties of Networks;277
1.5.3;17 Research Limitations;278
1.5.3.1;17.1 General Limitations;278
1.5.3.2;17.2 Limitations of Financial Research;279
1.5.3.3;17.3 Limitations of Complex Networks Research;279
1.5.4;18 Research Outlook;281
1.5.4.1;18.1 Financial Research Opportunities;281
1.5.4.1.1;18.1.1 Opportunities in Investment Valuation;281
1.5.4.1.2;18.1.2 Opportunities in Behavioral Finance;282
1.5.4.1.3;18.1.3 Opportunities for Empirical Financial Research;282
1.5.4.2;18.2 Complex Networks Research Opportunities;283
1.5.4.2.1;18.2.1 Heterogeneous Economic Agents;283
1.5.4.2.2;18.2.2 Network Generation;284
1.5.4.2.3;18.2.3 Network Evolution;284
1.5.4.2.4;18.2.4 Nature of Social Networks;284
1.5.4.2.5;18.2.5 Complex Systems Theory;285
1.5.4.3;18.3 Reconsideration of the Research Outlook;285
1.5.5;19 Executive Summary;286
1.5.6;Bibliography;288
1.5.7;Index of Keywords;306