Lambin / Geist Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

Local Processes and Global Impacts
1. Auflage 2008
ISBN: 978-3-540-32202-3
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 222 Seiten

Reihe: Global Change - The IGBP Series

This book presents recent estimates on the rate of change of major land classes. Aggregated globally, multiple impacts of local land changes are shown to significantly affect central aspects of Earth System functioning. The book offers innovative developments and applications in the fields of modeling and scenario construction. Conclusions are also drawn about the most pressing implications for the design of appropriate intervention policies.

Eric Lambin is Professor at the Department of Geography at the University of Louvain in Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, and chair of the Scientific Steering Committee of the IGBP-IHDP Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC) project, besides contributing to many other international scientific projects and initiatives. His research focuses on remote sensing, tropical deforestation, desertification and land use transitions. Helmut Geist is Professor of Human-Environment Interactions at the University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom, and former Executive Director of the IGBP-IHDP Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC) project. His research focuses on environment/development issues and political ecology.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Geist, Helmut

Lambin, Eric F.

Geist, Helmut J.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Acknowledgments;5
2;Contents;7
3;Authors;11
4;Chapter 1 Introduction: Local Processes with Global Impacts;19
4.1;1.1 A Research Agenda for a Primary Driver of Global Change;19
4.1.1;1.1.1 Introduction;19
4.1.2;1.1.2 Development of the Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC) Project;20
4.2;1.2 The Distinction between Land Use and Land Cover;22
4.3;1.3 Theoretical Foundations for Land-Change Science: Multiple Theories but Not “Atheoretical”;23
4.3.1;1.3.1 Box and Arrow Frameworks;23
4.3.2;1.3.2 Disciplinary Theories;24
4.3.3;1.3.3 Potential for an Overarching Theory;25
4.4;1.4 Objectives and Structure of the Book;26
5;Chapter 2 Global Land-Cover Change: Recent Progress, Remaining Challenges;27
5.1;2.1 Introduction;27
5.2;2.2 Historical Changes in Global Land Cover;29
5.2.1;2.2.1 Global Land-Cover Changes over the Last Millennium;29
5.2.2;2.2.2 Global Land-Cover Changes over the Last 300 Years;30
5.2.3;2.2.3 What Makes the 20th Century Unique?;38
5.3;2.3 Most Rapid Land-Cover Changes of the Last Decades: Rapid and Extensive;39
5.3.1;2.3.1 Recent Forest-Cover Changes;39
5.3.2;2.3.2 Recent Changes in Agricultural Areas;42
5.3.3;2.3.4 Recent Changes in Urbanization;43
5.3.4;2.3.5 Recent Changes in Drylands;44
5.3.5;2.3.6 Summary and Conclusions;46
5.4;2.4 The Complexity of Land-Cover Change;47
5.4.1;2.4.1 The Poorly Documented Changes;47
5.4.2;2.4.2 Characterizing the Complexity of Changes;51
5.5;2.5 Power and Limitations of Remote Sensing;52
5.5.1;2.5.1 Remote Sensing of Global Land Cover;52
5.5.2;2.5.2 The Challenge of Monitoring;53
5.6;2.6 Conclusions;56
6;Chapter 3 Causes and Trajectories of Land-Use/Cover Change;58
6.1;3.1 Introduction;58
6.2;3.2 Explaining Land Dynamics;59
6.2.1;3.2.1 Proximate Versus Underlying Causes;59
6.2.2;3.2.2 The Context of Land Change: Slow Versus Fast, and the Role of Mediating Factors;61
6.3;3.3 Synopsis of Broad Factors Affecting Land Change;62
6.3.1;3.3.1 Biophysical Factors;62
6.3.2;3.3.2 Economic and Technological Factors;64
6.3.3;3.3.3 Demographic Factors;70
6.3.4;3.3.4 Institutional Factors;74
6.3.5;3.3.5 Cultural Factors;77
6.4;3.4 Causation Revisited;79
6.4.1;3.4.1 Factor Interaction and Conjunctural Causation;79
6.4.2;3.4.2 Feedbacks, Thresholds, Endogeneity, and Co-Evolution;81
6.4.3;3.4.3 Globalization;81
6.5;3.5 Syndromes, Pathways, and Transitions;82
6.5.1;3.5.1 Syndromes of Land Change;82
6.5.2;3.5.2 Typical Pathways of Land-Use/Cover Change;84
6.5.3;3.5.3 Land-Use Transitions;85
6.6;3.6 Conclusions;86
7;Chapter 4 Multiple Impacts of Land-Use/Cover Change;88
7.1;4.1 Introduction;88
7.2;4.2 Provision and Lack of Food, Feed, Fiber, and Timber;89
7.2.1;4.2.1 Overview;89
7.2.2;4.2.2 Variations in Land Productivity;91
7.2.3;4.2.3 Food Insecurity and Poverty;91
7.2.4;4.2.4 Worsening Conditions for Food and Fiber Production?;92
7.3;4.3 Disease Risk and Human Health;94
7.3.1;4.3.1 Overview;94
7.3.2;4.3.2 Spread of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases;95
7.3.3;4.3.3 Biocide Usage and Land-Use Intensification;98
7.3.4;4.3.4 Health Concerns from Indirect Land-Use Effects;98
7.4;4.4 Atmospheric Chemistry, Climate Regulation, and Life Support Functions;99
7.4.1;4.4.1 Overview;99
7.4.2;4.4.2 Micro- and Meso-Level Impacts;100
7.4.3;4.4.3 Macro- or Global-Scale Impacts;100
7.4.4;4.4.4 Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Forcing;101
7.4.5;4.4.5 Feedbacks, Surprises and Unresolved Issues;103
7.5;4.5 Agrodiversity and Biodiversity Loss;106
7.5.1;4.5.1 Overview;106
7.5.2;4.5.2 Conservation and Loss of Biodiversity;107
7.5.3;4.5.3 Habitat Destruction, Degradation and Fragmentation;108
7.5.4;4.5.4 Pollination Losses and Other Impacts;112
7.6;4.6 Soil Quality and Land-Use/Cover Change;113
7.6.1;4.6.1 Overview;113
7.6.2;4.6.2 Extent of Human-Induced Degradation;115
7.6.3;4.6.3 Impacts of Soil Degradation;119
7.6.4;4.6.4 Preventing Soil Degradation, Improving Soil Quality;120
7.7;4.7 Freshwater Hydrology, Agricultural Water Use, and Coastal Zones;121
7.7.1;4.7.1 Overview;121
7.7.2;4.7.2 Hydrological Consequences of Land-Use/Cover Change;122
7.7.3;4.7.3 Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone;128
7.8;4.8 Conclusions;130
8;Chapter 5 Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change;134
8.1;5.1 Introduction;134
8.2;5.2 The Role of Models in Land-Use/Cover Change Research;134
8.3;5.3 The Diversity of Modeling Approaches;135
8.3.1;5.3.1 Spatial Versus Non-Spatial;135
8.3.2;5.3.2 Dynamic Versus Static;136
8.3.3;5.3.4 Deductive Versus Inductive;137
8.3.4;5.3.5 Agent-Based Versus Pixel-Based Representations;137
8.3.5;5.3.6 Global Versus Regional Models;138
8.3.6;5.3.7 What’s the Best Model?;139
8.4;5.4 Spatial and Temporal Dimensions of Land-Use/Cover Change Modeling;140
8.4.1;5.4.1 Spatial Scales and Level of Analysis;140
8.4.2;5.4.2 Spatial Autocorrelation and Spatial Interaction;143
8.4.3;5.4.3 Temporal Dynamics: Trajectories of Change and Feedbacks;145
8.5;5.5 Calibration and Validation of Land-Use/Cover Change Models;147
8.6;5.6 Conclusions;148
9;Chapter 6 Searching for the Future of Land: Scenarios from the Local to Global Scale;153
9.1;6.1 Introduction;153
9.2;6.2 Scenario Analysis: a Method for Anticipating the Future of Land;153
9.2.1;6.2.1 Qualitative Scenarios;153
9.2.2;6.2.2 Quantitative Scenarios;154
9.3;6.3 Global and Continental Scenarios;154
9.3.1;6.3.1 Methodological Issues;154
9.3.2;6.3.2 Global Scenario Results;155
9.3.3;6.3.3 African Scenario Results;157
9.3.4;6.3.4 European Scenario Results;159
9.4;6.4 Regional and Local Scenarios;161
9.4.1;6.4.1 Methodological Issues;161
9.4.2;6.4.2 Results from Regional and Local Scenarios;162
9.4.3;6.4.3 Results from Urban Scenarios;163
9.4.4;6.4.4 Results from Multi-Scale Scenarios;163
9.5;6.5 Main Findings of Scenarios;166
9.5.1;6.5.1 Changes in Extent of Urban Land;167
9.5.2;6.5.2 Changes in Extent of Agricultural Land;167
9.5.3;6.5.3 Changes in Extent of Forest Land;167
9.5.4;6.5.4 Consequences for the Earth System;168
9.6;6.6 Towards Better Land Scenarios;168
9.6.1;6.6.1 Expand the Scope of Scenarios;168
9.6.2;6.6.2 Use Participatory Approaches to Scenario Development;169
9.6.3;6.6.3 Improve the Transparency and Documentation of Scenarios;170
9.6.4;6.6.4 Build Interactive Scenarios;170
9.6.5;6.6.5 Broaden the Realm of Application of Global Scenarios;170
9.6.6;6.6.6 Develop Multi-Scale Scenarios;171
9.6.7;6.6.7 Improve the Representation of Socio- Economic Behavior in Scenarios;171
9.7;6.7 Conclusions;171
10;Chapter 7 Linking Land-Change Science and Policy: Current Lessons and Future Integration;172
10.1;7.1 Introduction;172
10.2;7.2 Key Public Policy Lessons from Land-Change Science;173
10.3;7.3 Influence of Land-Change Science on Policy: Some Successes and Failures;180
10.4;7.4 How Can Land-Change Science Be More Useful in the Policy Process?;183
10.5;7.5 Conclusions;185
11;Chapter 8 Conclusion;187
11.1;8.1 Main Findings on Land-Change Science;187
11.2;8.2 Frontier in Land-Use/Cover Change Research;189
12;References;191
13;Index;219