Porter / Cunningham / Banks Forecasting and Management of Technology

2. Auflage 2011
ISBN: 978-1-118-04818-4
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 352 Seiten, E-Book

Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting andManagement of Technology was one of the leading handful ofbooks to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology andtechnology management as this discipline was emerging. Thenew, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge inthe context of business organizations that now place a greateremphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge ofdevelopment. The scope of this edition has broadened toinclude management of technology content that is relevant to now toexecutives in organizations while updating and strengthening thetechnology forecasting and analysis content that the first editionis reputed for.
Updated by the original author team, plus new author ScottCunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as theinnovations to technology management in the last 17 years: theInternet; the greater focus on group decision-making includingprocess management and mechanism design; and desktop software thathas transformed the analytical capabilities of technologymanagers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies fromvarious industries that show how technology management is appliedin the real world.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Porter, Alan L.

Cunningham, Scott W.

Banks, Jerry

Roper, A. Thomas

Mason, Thomas W.

Rossini, Frederick A.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Chapter 1. Introduction.
1.1 About this Book.
1.2 Technology and Society.
1.3 Management and the Future.
1.4 Conclusions.
References.
Chapter 2. Technology Forecasting.
2.1 What is Technology Forecasting?
2.2 Methodological Foundations.
2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods.
2.4 Conclusion.
References.
Chapter 3. Managing the Forecasting Project.
3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project.
3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast.
3.3 Team Organization, Management and Communications.
3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time.
3.5 Project Scheduling.
3.6 Conclusions.
References.
Chapter 4. Exploring.
4.1 Establishing the Context - The TDS.
4.2 Monitoring.
4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity.
4.4 Conclusion.
References.
Chapter 5. Gathering and Using Information.
5.1 Expert Opinion.
5.3 Structuring The Search.
5.4 Preparing Search Results.
5.5 Using Search Results.
5.6 Developing Science, Technology and Social Indicators.
5.7 Communicating Search Results.
5.8 Conclusions.
References.
Chapter 6. Analyzing Phase.
6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods.
6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions.
6.3 Growth Models.
6.4 Simulation.
6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation.
6.6 System Dynamics.
6.7 Gaming.
6.8 Software Suggestions.
References.
Chapter 7. Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis.
7.1 Uncertainty.
7.2 Scenarios.
7.3 Examples and Applications.
7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques.
7.5 Conclusions.
References.
Chapter 8. Economic and Market Analysis.
8.1 The Context.
8.2 Forecasting the Market.
8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context.
8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context.
8.5 Conclusion.
References.
Chapter 9. Impact Assessment.
9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting.
9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology.
9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment.
9.4 Impact Identification.
9.5 Impact Analysis.
9.6 Impact Evaluation.
9.7 Conclusion.
References.
Chapter 10. Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis.
10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices.
10.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis.
10.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty.
10.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase.
References.
Chapter 11. Implementing the Technology.
11.1 Forecasting Continues.
11.2 Implementation Issues.
11.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation.
11.4 Selecting From Alternative Implementations of the Technology.
11.5 Technology Roadmapping.
11.6 When Plans and Forecasts Fail.
11.7 Summary and Concluding Observations.
References.
Chapter 12. Managing the Present From the Future.
12.1 The Overall Approach.
12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques.
12.3 Alternative perspectives.
12.4 Learning From Past Forecasts and Assessments.
12.5 Visions.
12.6 A Final Word.
References.
Chapter 13. Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells.
13.1 Framing the Case Study.
13.2 Methods.
13.3 The Rest of the Story.
References.

Über Autor(innen)

ALAN THOMAS ROPER (retired) was a professor at Rose-HulmanInstitute of Technology in Terre Haute, Indiana. He is the pasteditor of the journal Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal andthe past director of the Center for Technology and Policy Studiesat Rose-Hulman.
SCOTT W. CUNNINGHAM obtained a MSc in public policy fromthe Georgia Institute of Technology and a DPhil in science,technology, and innovation policy from the University of Sussex. Heis currently Assistant Professor of Policy Analysis in theDepartment of Technology, Policy, and Management at DelftUniversity of Technology.
ALAN L. PORTER has led development of "technologyopportunity analysis" and mining electronic, bibliographic datasources to generate intelligence on emerging technologies. He holdsan MA in psychology and a PhD in engineering psychology, both fromUCLA. He is currently Director of Research and Development forSearch Technology, Inc., in Norcross, Georgia.
THOMAS W. MASON was the founding head of the EngineeringManagement Department (www.rose-hulman.edu/msem). While on athree-year leave from Rose-Hulman, he served as CFO and CEO of a140-person network management systems business.
FREDERICK A. ROSSINI (retired) is a former provost atGeorge Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.
JERRY BANKS is Professor Emeritus, Department ofIndustrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technologyin Atlanta, Georgia.