Rezaei Iran’s Nuclear Program

A Study in Proliferation and Rollback
1. Auflage 2017
ISBN: 978-3-319-44120-7
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 272 Seiten, eBook

Reihe: Progress in Mathematics

This book presents the first full and systematic account of Iran’s nuclear program from 1979 to 2015. Throughout this time, foreign policy makers, intelligence experts, and scholars on the subject have repeatedly failed to understand the internal dynamics behind Iran's nuclear project and have underestimated the depth of the regime’s commitment to develop nuclear weapons. The author presents an account of little-understood episodes in the history of the nuclear project, including an analysis of the decision making process of the “nuclear sanctum.” A full account is given of the organizations that ran the project and a listing of the suppliers that made the project possible. Finally, the book offers a detailed analysis of the international sanctions placed on Iran, including the induced anomie and legitimacy crisis which expedited the decision to rollback.

Zielgruppe

Research

Autoren/Hrsg.

Rezaei, Farhad

Inhaltsverzeichnis

CHAPTER 1 PROLIFERATION, SANCTIONS AND ROLLBACK: A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH 1 The Puzzle of Iran’s Proliferation: Optimists vs. Pessimists 2 Rolling Back Iran’s Nuclear Program? Sanction Advocates vs. Sanction Skeptics 6 Iran as a Non-Unitary Actor: The Negotiated Political Order 9 Methodology and Structure 12CHAPTER 2 THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION AND THE BOMB: QURAN MEETS REALISM  16 The Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic: The High Cost of Exporting the Revolution 17 The Quranic Way Of War: Is There Room For Nuclear Weapons? 28 Bushehr and Beyond: Building a Case for Nuclear Weapons 33CHAPTER 3 RAFSANJANI’S NUCLEAR TAKEOFF: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE WEAK NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME 46 Hiding in Plain Site: The Legitimate Infrastructure of an Illicit Program 47 Building its Own Scientific Cadre: Iran as a Nuclear Science Beacon to the World? 57 The Pakistani Connection: Making the Dream of a Muslim Bomb a Doable Reality? 61 Shopping in the A. Q. Khan Nuclear Bazaar: the Centrifuge Blueprint Purchase 66 Beyond the “Khan Bazaar”: Making Pakistani Proliferation Official? 72 The North Korean Connection: Shopping For Missiles and More 76 Evading the Nonproliferation Regime: Complexity and Dissimulation 84CHAPTER 4KHATAMI’S DIALOGUE AMONG CIVILIZATIONS AND THE NUCLEAR “DISAPPEARANCE ACT” 100 Khatami’s Vision of Foreign Policy: The Meaning of the Dialogue among Civilizations 100 On Khatami’s Watch: Speeding Up the Nuclear Project 112 The MEK‘s Disclosure and its Aftermath: Adjusting Tactics without Changing Strategy 117 Khatami: Out of the Loop or Part of the Deception Project? 132 Slow-Playing the West While Developing the Nuclear Project 139 CHAPTER 5 AHMADINEJAD’S PRINCIPALIST DOCTRINE: SOVEREIGN RIGHTS TO A NUCLEAR ARSENAL 156 The Nuclear Project in Ahmadinejad’s World View: Nuclear Equality for All 168 The NPT Dilemma in Tehran: To Stay or Exit? 172 Security Council Resolutions: Raising the Cost of the Nuclear Project 186CHAPTER 6 INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS: THE HIGH COST OF PROLIFERATION IN A NEOPATRIMONIAL REGIME 209 Sanctions and More Sanctions: Splitting the Iranian Elites 209 The 2009 Election As A Referendum On Sanctions: Why Did The Supreme Leader Side With Ahmadinejad? 216 Cutting to the Bone: The Smart Sanctions in Action 222 The Weapons Program during Ahmadinejad’s Tenure: Measuring Achievements behind the Rhetoric 230CHAPTER 7 THE ROUHANI PRESIDENCY: THE ROAD TO ROLLBACK 259 From Smart Sanctions to Super Smart Sanctions: Putting the Squeeze on the Iranian Economy 260 Sanctions and Anomie: A Threshold Condition for Delegitimization? 274 The Election of Hassan Rouhani: A Victory for the Rollback Lobby 278 The Nuclear Program Assessed: The View of the International Atomic Energy Agency 283 Rouhani’s Gamble: Banking on a Rollback and Normalization 287 The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: The Parameters of the Rollback 295 The JCPOA’s Prospects in Tehran: Renegotiating the Negotiated Political Order? 299CONCLUSION 321APPENDICES 325

Über Autor(innen)

Farhad Rezaei is Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Middle East Institute (ORMER), Sakarya University, Turkey. He obtained his PhD in International Relations from the Department of International and Strategic Studies at the University of Malaya, Malaysia.