How Demographics Affect and Influence Every Aspect of Economics, Finance and Policy
E-Book, Englisch, 320 Seiten, E-Book
ISBN: 978-1-119-79915-3
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)
In Demographics Unravelled, renowned Macro-Demographics expert Amlan Roy delivers an insightful and timely exploration of the impact that "people characteristics" have on national economies. Considering factors like gender, race, migrant status, family background, and education, the author delves deeply into a subject that drives market behavior and economic variables, including growth, debt, inflation, employment, and productivity. These have national and international policy implications.
In this one-of-a-kind book, you'll discover:
* Why the study of demographics is the hidden key to understanding economic growth, asset prices, and capital flows
* How to use detailed demographics to forecast future scenarios in economics, socioeconomics, geopolitics, and the environment
* The short-, medium-, and long-term effects of consumer and worker behavior
* How understanding demographics is key to understanding health, pensions, migration, sustainability and social policies. It is intimately linked to the Sustainable Development Goals of the UN--Gender, Climate, Poverty and Inequality
Perfect for institutional investors, insurance professionals, economists, and business leaders, Demographics Unravelled will also earn a place in the libraries of academics and students studying a variety of economic disciplines and seeking a one-stop and in-depth discussion of demographics-driven macroeconomic effects.
Autoren/Hrsg.
Weitere Infos & Material
Acknowledgements 5
Preface 6
Chapter 1 Introduction 8
Chapter 2. Core data: Past, Present and Future 13
2.1 Economic History, History of Global Population Trends 14
2.2 Core Demographic Variables: Data, Analysis & some observations 15
2.2.1 Population Size and Growth 15
2.2.2 Ageing Populations 16
2.2.3 Life Expectancy Increases 17
2.2.4 Total Fertility Rates 18
2.2.5 Dependency Ratios 19
2.2.6 Gender Ratios 22
2.2.7 Age Structure and Population Pyramids 23
2.2.8 The Demographic Transition Model 25
2.3 The Role of Migration 26
2.4 Urbanization 34
2.5 Small Nation States--Demographics 36
2.6 Changing Longevity--metrics need changing 37
2.7 Changing social and individual behaviour 38
2.8 Multiple Generations 40
2.9 Conclusion 41
Chapter 3 Demographics and Macroeconomics 42
3.1 Demographics and Economic Growth 42
3.2 Demographic Dividend and GDP per capita growth 47
3.3 Inflation 49
3.4 Debt, Deficits and Fiscal Sustainability 57
3.5 Demographics, Monetary Policy & Interest Rates 62
3.6 Demographics and Unemployment 63
3.7 Demographics, Capital Flows & Current Account 65
Chapter 4. Demographics and Asset Prices 66
4.1 Theories of Life Cycle Consumption, Savings & Permanent Income 66
4.1.1 Life Cycle Consumption 66
4.1.2 Permanent Income Hypothesis 67
4.1.3. Consumption, Savings & Pioneering Paul Samuelson 68
4.2 How Demographics influences equity prices and markets 69
4.3 Will there be an asset market meltdown when boomers retire? 76
4.4 Demographic changes and interest rates (bond yields) 77
4.5 Demographics and Risk Premia 80
4.6 Asset Holdings and Age 81
4.7 Demographics and Equity Sectors 83
4.8 Demographics and Real estate 87
4.9 Demographics and Commodities 89
4.10 Conclusions 91
Appendix A to Chapter 4 93
Chapter 5 Health and Longevity 94
5.1 Health Issues, Expenditures and Measures 95
5.1.1 Health Expenditures 95
5.1.2 Global Health Security 97
5.1.3 Global Burden of Disease 98
5.1.4 Health in Emerging Countries 100
5.2 Longevity 103
5.2.1 Life expectancy and Conditional Life expectancy increases 104
5.2.2 Life Expectancy versus Healthy Life expectancy 105
5.2.3 DALYs and their causes 107
5.2.4 Longevity and Mortality: more than just births and deaths 107
5.2.5 Longevity risk and uncertain future of longevity 109
5.2.6 Longevity forecasting models: countries and regions 111
5.2.7 Short summary of Longevity Models 113
5.2.8 Annuities as a Longevity Risk Management Tool 116
5.2.9 Other Longevity Risk Management Tools & Instruments 119
5.3 Conclusions 120
Chapter 6. Pensions & Retirement 121
6.1 A Brief History of Social Security and Pensions 121
6.2 Evaluating Pension Systems--Indicators & Cross-country comparisons 124
6.3 Assessing Age-related pension expenditures across countries 129
6.4 Pensions and pension systema-the experts views 131
6.5 Pensions, Asset Allocation, Investments & Capital Markets 139
6.6 Pensions & Corporate Finance/Equity Prices 142
6.7 Future of Retirements/Conclusions 143
Chapter 7 Quality of Life, Gender, Governance, Politics & Sustainability 145
7.1 Utility theory, Social welfare and Happiness 145
7. 2 Quality of Life--Human Development Index, Human Capital 149
7.3 Gender Inequality 151
7.4 Corruption & Transparency 153
7.5 Sustainability & Climate Change 154
7.6 Politics & Geopolitics 156
7.7 Conclusions 157
Chapter 8. Summary & Conclusions 158
Index of subjects 160
End Notes 162
