Schumann Flood Risk Assessment and Management

How to Specify Hydrological Loads, Their Consequences and Uncertainties
1. Auflage 2011
ISBN: 978-90-481-9917-4
Verlag: Springer Netherlands
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 281 Seiten

Flood catastrophes which happened world-wide have shown that it is not sufficient to characterize the hazard caused by the natural phenomenon 'flood' with the well-known 3M-approach (measuring, mapping and modelling). Due to the recent shift in paradigms from a safety oriented approach to risk based planning it became necessary to consider the harmful impacts of hazards. The planning tasks changed from attempts to minimise hazards towards interventions to reduce exposure or susceptibility and nowadays to enhance the capacities to increase resilience. Scientific interest shifts more and more towards interdisciplinary approaches, which are needed to avoid disaster. This book deals with many aspects of flood risk management in a comprehensive way. As risks depend on hazard and vulnerabilities, not only geophysical tools for flood forecasting and planning are presented, but also socio-economic problems of flood management are discussed. Starting with precipitation and meteorological tools to its forecasting, hydrological models are described in their applications for operational flood forecasts, considering model uncertainties and their interactions with hydraulic and groundwater models. With regard to flood risk planning, regionalization aspects and the options to utilize historic floods are discussed. New hydrological tools for flood risk assessments for dams and reservoirs are presented. Problems and options to quantify socio-economic risks and how to consider them in multi-criteria assessments of flood risk planning are discussed. This book contributes to the contemporary efforts to reduce flood risk at the European scale. Using many real-world examples, it is useful for scientists and practitioners at different levels and with different interests.

Prof. Andreas Schumann studied hydrology and water management at the Technical University, Dresden. From 1981 to 1988 he held different positions in water management authorities: district hydrologist, head of a department and vice-director. From 1989 to 2001 he was a senior lecturer for Hydrology and Water Management at the Ruhr- University Bochum. Since 2001 he has the chair for Hydrology, Water Management and Environmental Techniques at the Ruhr- University Bochum, Germany. Prof. Schumann is Vice-President of ICWRS (Water Resource Systems) of International Association of Hydrological Sciences.  

Autoren/Hrsg.

Schumann, Andreas H.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Preface;5
2;Contents;7
3;Contributors;9
4;1 Introduction -- Hydrological Aspects of Risk Management;11
4.1;1.1 Determinants of Flood Risk;11
4.2;1.2 Importance of Detailed Flood Characterisations in Risk Estimations;12
4.3;1.3 Hydrological Information for Flood Risk Management;15
4.4;1.4 The Content of This Book;17
4.5;References;20
5;2 Uncertainties in Weather Forecast -- Reasons and Handling;21
5.1;2.1 Introduction;22
5.2;2.2 Background and Current Uncertainties in Weather Forecast;24
5.3;2.3 Data Assimilation Strategies;27
5.4;2.4 Reasons for Uncertainties;32
5.5;2.5 Handling of Uncertainties;34
5.6;2.6 Verification and Applications;38
5.7;2.7 Outlook;39
5.8;References;40
6;3 Interpolation of Precipitation for Flood Modelling;44
6.1;3.1 Introduction;45
6.2;3.2 Interpolation Principle and Conventional Methods;46
6.3;3.3 Geostatistical Interpolation;47
6.3.1;3.3.1 Statistical Model;47
6.3.2;3.3.2 Variograms;48
6.3.3;3.3.3 Ordinary Kriging (OK);50
6.3.4;3.3.4 Simple Kriging (SK);50
6.3.5;3.3.5 Residual Kriging (RK);51
6.3.6;3.3.6 External Drift Kriging (EDK);51
6.4;3.4 Validation of Interpolation Methods;52
6.5;3.5 Simulation Methods;53
6.5.1;3.5.1 Sequential Simulation;53
6.5.2;3.5.2 Simulated Annealing;54
6.6;3.6 Example for Rainfall Interpolation;55
6.7;3.7 Example for Rainfall Simulation;57
6.8;References;59
7;4 Framing Uncertainties in Flood Forecasting with Ensembles;62
7.1;4.1 Introduction;63
7.2;4.2 Sources of Uncertainties;66
7.3;4.3 Treatment of Uncertainties in Operational Flood Forecasts Using Ensemble Methods;67
7.3.1;4.3.1 Overview;67
7.3.2;4.3.2 Updating of State Parameters by Data Assimilation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF);68
7.3.2.1;4.3.2.1 Meteorological Ensemble Forecasts;71
7.3.2.2;4.3.2.2 Utilisation of Parameter Ensembles;72
7.4;4.4 Case Study: Ensembles as a Part of a Flood Forecast System for the Mulde River Basin;76
7.5;4.5 Summary;83
7.6;References;84
8;5 Design of Artificial Neural Networks for Flood Forecasting;86
8.1;5.1 The Challenge of Flood Forecasting;86
8.2;5.2 Representation of Rainfall-Runoff Processes with Artificial Neural Networks;88
8.2.1;5.2.1 Multi Layer Feed Forward Nets;88
8.2.1.1;5.2.1.1 Principles of Multi Layer Nets;89
8.2.1.2;5.2.1.2 Structure of Multi Layer Neural Networks;89
8.2.1.3;5.2.1.3 Training of Multi Layer Nets;91
8.2.2;5.2.2 Polynomial Neural Nets;92
8.2.2.1;5.2.2.1 Basics of Polynomial Neural Networks;93
8.2.2.2;5.2.2.2 Training of Polynomial Nets;94
8.2.3;5.2.3 Comparative Analysis of Multi Layer Net and Polynomial Network Structures with Regard to Hydrological Problems;95
8.2.4;5.2.4 Optimal Polynomial Network Forecast Strategy;100
8.3;5.3 Conclusions;103
8.4;References;104
9;6 Advances in Regionalising Flood Probabilities;106
9.1;6.1 Introduction;107
9.2;6.2 Regionalisation Approaches;108
9.2.1;6.2.1 Pooling Schemes;108
9.2.2;6.2.2 Functional Relationships to Catchment Attributes;112
9.2.3;6.2.3 Geostatistical Methods;115
9.3;6.3 Performance of Regionalisation Approaches;119
9.4;6.4 Discussion;121
9.5;References;122
10;7 Rainfall Generators for Application in Flood Studies;125
10.1;7.1 Introduction;126
10.2;7.2 Precipitation as Stochastic Process;127
10.3;7.3 Alternating Renewal Models;129
10.4;7.4 Time Series Models;131
10.4.1;7.4.1 Markov Chains;131
10.4.2;7.4.2 ARMA Models;132
10.4.3;7.4.3 DARMA Models;133
10.4.4;7.4.4 Advantages and Disadvantages;134
10.5;7.5 Point Process Models;134
10.6;7.6 Disaggregation Models;136
10.7;7.7 Resampling Models;137
10.7.1;7.7.1 k-Nearest Neighbourhood Bootstrapping;138
10.7.2;7.7.2 Simulated Annealing;139
10.7.3;7.7.3 Advantages and Disadvantages;139
10.8;7.8 Example for Daily Rainfall Synthesis;139
10.8.1;7.8.1 The Modelling Steps;141
10.8.2;7.8.2 Simulation of Daily Precipitation;144
10.9;7.9 Example for Hourly Rainfall Synthesis;147
10.9.1;7.9.1 Methodology of Precipitation Synthesis;148
10.9.2;7.9.2 Data, Study Region and Hydrological Model;149
10.9.3;7.9.3 Application;150
10.10;References;153
11;8 Copulas -- New Risk Assessment Methodology for Dam Safety;156
11.1;8.1 Introduction;157
11.2;8.2 Copula Theory;158
11.2.1;8.2.1 Basic Principles of Copula Theory;159
11.2.2;8.2.2 Archimedian Copulas;161
11.2.3;8.2.3 Parameter Estimation;161
11.2.4;8.2.4 Identification of the Appropriate Copula Model;163
11.2.4.1;8.2.4.1 Graphical Diagnostics;163
11.2.4.2;8.2.4.2 Goodness-of-Fit Statistics;164
11.2.5;8.2.5 Bivariate Frequency Analysis;165
11.3;8.3 Case Study 1: Risk Analysis for the Wupper Dam;168
11.3.1;8.3.1 Study Area;169
11.3.2;8.3.2 Stochastic-Deterministic Generation of Flood Events;169
11.3.3;8.3.3 Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Annual Flood Peaks and Corresponding Volumes;170
11.3.3.1;8.3.3.1 Marginal Distributions;171
11.3.3.2;8.3.3.2 Copula Estimation;171
11.3.3.3;8.3.3.3 Bivariate Frequency Analysis;176
11.3.4;8.3.4 Evaluation of the Effect of the Wupper Dam on Flood Control;176
11.4;8.4 Case Study 2: Unstrut River Basin;178
11.4.1;8.4.1 Description of the River Basin;179
11.4.2;8.4.2 Stochastic-Deterministic Generation of Flood Events;180
11.4.3;8.4.3 Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Corresponding Flood Peaks at the Reservoir Sites;181
11.4.3.1;8.4.3.1 Marginal Distributions;182
11.4.3.2;8.4.3.2 Copula Estimation;182
11.4.3.3;8.4.3.3 Bivariate Frequency Analysis;184
11.4.4;8.4.4 Bivariate Frequency Analysis of the Annual Flood Peaks and the Corresponding Volumes;184
11.4.4.1;8.4.4.1 Marginal Distributions;185
11.4.4.2;8.4.4.2 Copula Estimation;185
11.4.4.3;8.4.4.3 Bivariate Frequency Analysis;186
11.4.5;8.4.5 Evaluation of the Effect of the Reservoir Straussfurt on Flood Control;187
11.5;8.5 Conclusions;189
11.6;References;190
12;9 Hydraulic Modelling;193
12.1;9.1 Fundamentals;194
12.1.1;9.1.1 Preface;194
12.1.2;9.1.2 Flow Characteristics;195
12.1.3;9.1.3 Model Types;196
12.1.4;9.1.4 Base Data;199
12.1.4.1;9.1.4.1 Terrain Topography (River Channel/Flood Plain);199
12.1.4.2;9.1.4.2 Water Level Information and Flood Boundaries;200
12.1.5;9.1.5 Investigation;201
12.2;9.2 Flood Management Models;202
12.2.1;9.2.1 Case Study of a Region with Well Defined Flow Characteristics;203
12.2.2;9.2.2 Case Study of a Region with Complex Flow Characteristics;205
12.2.2.1;9.2.2.1 Characterisation of the Investigated Area;205
12.2.2.2;9.2.2.2 Modelling Techniques;206
12.3;9.3 GIS-Based User Interface;209
12.3.1;9.3.1 Hydraulic Computation;210
12.3.2;9.3.2 Visualisation of Results;211
12.3.3;9.3.3 Specific Flood Analysis Tools;212
12.3.3.1;9.3.3.1 Freeboard Analyses Along Dikes;212
12.3.3.2;9.3.3.2 Hazard Analysis of Buildings;212
12.3.3.3;9.3.3.3 Intervention in Model Topography;213
12.3.3.4;9.3.3.4 Analysis of Protected Areas;213
12.3.3.5;9.3.3.5 Superposition of Other Flood-Related Data;213
12.4;9.4 Summary;213
12.5;References;215
13;10 Groundwater -- The Subterranean Part of Flood Risk;216
13.1;10.1 Introduction;217
13.2;10.2 Flood and Groundwater Characteristics, Impacts and Parameters;218
13.2.1;10.2.1 Characteristics;218
13.2.2;10.2.2 Impacts;218
13.2.3;10.2.3 Parameters;220
13.3;10.3 Model Coupling;222
13.3.1;10.3.1 Coupling Concept;222
13.3.2;10.3.2 Model Coupling;224
13.3.3;10.3.3 Spatial and Time Step Coupling;224
13.4;10.4 Case Study Dresden;225
13.4.1;10.4.1 Introduction of Study Area;225
13.4.2;10.4.2 Flood and Groundwater in the Study Area;226
13.4.3;10.4.3 Results of Modelling;228
13.5;10.5 Conclusions;230
13.6;References;231
14;11 Quantification of Socio-Economic Flood Risks;233
14.1;11.1 Increasing Demand for Flood Damage Assessments;233
14.2;11.2 Basics of Direct Economic Damage Assessment;236
14.2.1;11.2.1 Types of Flood Damage;236
14.2.2;11.2.2 Spatial and Temporal Scales;237
14.2.3;11.2.3 Procedure for Direct Economic Damage Estimation;238
14.2.4;11.2.4 Classification of Elements at Risk;238
14.2.5;11.2.5 Exposure and Asset Analysis;239
14.3;11.3 Susceptibility Analysis;243
14.3.1;11.3.1 Damage Influencing Flood Characteristics;243
14.3.2;11.3.2 Damage Functions;244
14.4;11.4 The FLEMOps Model;244
14.5;11.5 Conclusions;249
14.6;References;249
15;12 Application of Scenarios and Multi-Criteria Decision Making Tools in Flood Polder Planning;252
15.1;12.1 Introduction;253
15.2;12.2 Estimation of Flood Scenarios and Their Plausibility;255
15.3;12.3 Impact Assessments of Flood Control Measures;257
15.4;12.4 Multi-Criteria Decision Making;258
15.4.1;12.4.1 A Distance Based MCDM Tool -- the TOPSIS Approach;258
15.4.2;12.4.2 A Fuzzyfied Version of the Analytic Hierarchy Process Method (FAHP);260
15.5;12.5 Case Study;264
15.5.1;12.5.1 Specification of Hydrological Loads;265
15.5.2;12.5.2 Comparison of Damages;271
15.5.3;12.5.3 Application of TOPSIS;272
15.5.4;12.5.4 Application of Fuzzy-AHP;274
15.6;12.6 Conclusions;277
15.7;References;277
16;Index;279