Tetlock Expert Political Judgment

How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Course Book
ISBN: 978-1-4008-3031-2
Verlag: De Gruyter
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 344 Seiten

TetlockPhilip E.:

Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton).

Autoren/Hrsg.

Tetlock, Philip E.

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Politikwissenschaft Allgemein
• Sozialwissenschaften Psychologie Allgemeine Psychologie Sozialpsychologie

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Acknowledgments ix
Preface xi
Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1
Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25
Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs 67
Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs 121
Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios 144
Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164
Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189
Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216
Methodological Appendix 239
Technical Appendix: Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock 273
Index 313

Über Autor(innen)

Tetlock Philip E.:

Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton).