Turchin / Nefedov Secular Cycles

Course Book
ISBN: 978-1-4008-3068-8
Verlag: De Gruyter
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: 6 - ePub Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 360 Seiten

No detailed description available for "Secular Cycles".

Autoren/Hrsg.

Turchin, Peter

Nefedov, Sergey A.

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Politikwissenschaft Allgemein
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Wirtschaftswissenschaften Wirtschaftsgeschichte
• Sozialwissenschaften Soziologie | Soziale Arbeit Soziologie Allgemein Demographie, Demoskopie

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Table of Units and Currencies ix

Chapter 1: Introduction: The Theoretical Background 1

1.1 Development of Ideas about Demographic Cycles 1

1.2 A Synthetic Theory of Secular Cycles 6

1.3 Variations and Extensions 21

1.4 Empirical Approaches 29

Chapter 2: Medieval England: The Plantagenet Cycle (1150-1485) 35

2.1 Overview of the Cycle 35

2.2 The Expansion Phase (1150-1260) 47

2.3 Stagflation (1260-1315) 49

2.4 Crisis (1315-1400) 58

2.5 Depression (1400-1485) 69

2.6 Conclusion 77

Chapter 3: Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485-1730) 81

3.1 Overview of the Cycle 81

3.2 Expansion (1485-1580) 87

3.3 Stagflation (1580-1640) 91

3.4 Crisis (1640-60) 97

3.5 Depression (1660-1730) 101

3.6 Conclusion 107

Appendix to Chapter 3 108

Chapter 4: Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150-1450) 111

4.1 Overview of the Cycle 111

4.2 Expansion (1150-1250) 115

4.3 Stagflation (1250-1315) 117

4.4 Crisis (1315-65) 121

4.5 Depression (1365-1450) 129

4.6 Conclusion: "A Near Perfect Multi-secular Cycle" 141

Chapter 5: Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450-1660) 143

5.1 Overview 143

5.2 Expansion (1450-1520) 147

5.3 Stagflation (1520-70) 149

5.4 Crisis (1570-1600) 153

5.5 A Case Study: The Norman Nobility 156

5.6 Depression (1600-1660) 169

5.7 Conclusion 174

Chapter 6: Rome: The Republican Cycle (350-30 BCE) 176

6.1 Overview of the Cycle 176

6.2 An Unusually Long Expansion (350-180 BCE) 185

6.3 Stagflation (180-130 BCE) 189

6.4 The Late Republican Crisis (130-30 BCE) 201

6.5 The End of the Disintegrative Trend 205

6.6 Conclusion 208

Chapter 7: Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE-285 CE) 211

7.1 Overview of the Cycle 211

7.2 Expansion (27 BCE-96 CE) 224

7.3 Stagflation (96-165 CE) 229

7.4 Crisis (165-97 CE) 233

7.5 Depression (197-285 CE) 236

7.6 Conclusion 238

Chapter 8: Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460-1620) 240

8.1 The Fifteenth-Century Crisis 240

8.2 Expansion (1460-1530) 241

8.3 Stagflation (1530-65) 244

8.4 Crisis (1565-1615) 252

8.5 Conclusion 258

Chapter 9: Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620-1922) 261

9.1 Expansion (1620-1800) 261

9.2 Stagflation (1800-1905) 274

9.3 Crisis (1905-22) 287

9.4 Conclusion 299

Chapter 10: General Conclusions 303

10.1 Population Numbers 303

10.2 Elite Dynamics 304

10.3 The State 306

10.4 Sociopolitical Instability 307

10.5 Are There General Laws of Historical Dynamics? 311

Acknowledgments 315

References Cited 317

Index 341

Über Autor(innen)

Peter Turchin is professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and adjunct professor of mathematics at the University of Connecticut. Sergey A. Nefedov is senior research scientist at the Institute of History and Archaeology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ural Branch.