Hubert / Wainer A Statistical Guide for the Ethically Perplexed

1. Auflage 2012
ISBN: 978-1-4398-7369-4
Verlag: Taylor & Francis
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 588 Seiten

For disciplines concerned with human well-being, such as medicine, psychology, and law, statistics must be used in accordance with standards for ethical practice. A Statistical Guide for the Ethically Perplexed illustrates the proper use of probabilistic and statistical reasoning in the behavioral, social, and biomedical sciences. Designed to be consulted when learning formal statistical techniques, the text describes common instances of both correct and false statistical and probabilistic reasoning.

Lauded for their contributions to statistics, psychology, and psychometrics, the authors make statistical methods relevant to readers’ day-to-day lives by including real historical situations that demonstrate the role of statistics in reasoning and decision making. The historical vignettes encompass the English case of Sally Clark, breast cancer screening, risk and gambling, the Federal Rules of Evidence, "high-stakes" testing, regulatory issues in medicine, difficulties with observational studies, ethics in human experiments, health statistics, and much more. In addition to these topics, seven U.S. Supreme Court decisions reflect the influence of statistical and psychometric reasoning and interpretation/misinterpretation.

Exploring the intersection of ethics and statistics, this comprehensive guide assists readers in becoming critical and ethical consumers and producers of statistical reasoning and analyses. It will help them reason correctly and use statistics in an ethical manner.

Zielgruppe

Researchers and graduate students in statistics and social and behavioral sciences.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Hubert, Lawrence

Wainer, Howard

Fachgebiete

• Medizin | Veterinärmedizin Medizin | Public Health | Pharmazie | Zahnmedizin Medizin, Gesundheitswesen Medizinische Mathematik & Informatik
• Geisteswissenschaften Philosophie Angewandte Ethik & Soziale Verantwortung
• Sozialwissenschaften Soziologie | Soziale Arbeit Soziologie Allgemein Empirische Sozialforschung, Statistik

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preamble

Introduction
The (Questionable) Use of Statistical Models

TOOLS FROM PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
Probability Theory: Background and Bayes’ Theorem

The (Mis)assignment of Probabilities

The Probabilistic Generalizations of Logical Fallacies Are No Longer Fallacies

Using Bayes’ Rule to Assess the Consequences of Screening for Rare Events

Bayes’ Rule and the Confusion of Conditional Probabilities
Bayes’ Rule and the Importance of Base Rates

Probability Theory: Application Areas

Some Probability Considerations in Discrimination and Classification

Probability and Litigation
Betting, Gaming, and Risk

Correlation
Illusory Correlation

Ecological Correlation

Restriction of Range for Correlations

Odd Correlations

Measures of Nonlinear Association

Intraclass Correlation

Prediction
Regression toward the Mean

Actuarial Versus Clinical Prediction

Incorporating Reliability Corrections in Prediction

Differential Prediction Effects in Selection

Interpreting and Making Inferences from Regression Weights

The (Un)reliability of Clinical Prediction

The Basic Sampling Model and Associated Topics
Multivariable Systems
Graphical Presentation

Problems with Multiple Testing

Issues in Repeated-Measures Analyses

Matching and Blocking

Randomization and Permutation Tests

Pitfalls of Software Implementations
Sample Size Selection

Psychometrics
Traditional True Score Theory Concepts of Reliability and Validity

Test Fairness

Quotidian Psychometric Insights

Psychometrics, Eugenics, and Immigration Restriction

DATA PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION
Background: Data Presentation and Interpretation
Weight-of-the-Evidence Arguments in the Presentation and Interpretation of Data

(Mis)reporting of Data
The Social Construction of Statistics

Adjustments for Groups Not Comparable on a Variable, Such As Age

Inferring Causality
Casuistry

The Bradford-Hill Criteria for Determining a Causal Connection

Some Historical Health and Medical Conceptions of Disease Causality

Medical Error as (the) Causative Factor

Simpson’s Paradox

Meta-Analysis

Statistical Sleuthing and Explanation
Sleuthing Interests and Basic Tools

Survival Analysis

Statistical Sleuthing and the Imposition of the Death Penalty: McCleskey v. Kemp (1987)

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND THE COLLECTION OF DATA
Background: Experimental Design and the Collection of Data

Observational Studies: Interpretation

Observational Studies: Types

Observational Studies: Additional Cautions

Controlled Studies

Controlled Studies: Additional Sources of Bias
The Randomized Response Method

Ethical Considerations in Data Collection

The Nazi Doctor’s Trial and the Nuremberg Code

The National Research Act of 1974

The Declaration of Helsinki

The Federal Rules of Evidence
Junk Science

The Consequences of Daubert and the Data Quality Act (of 2001)

Some Concluding Remarks

Bibliography

Author Index

Subject Index

Über Autor(innen)

Lawrence Hubert is the Lyle H. Lanier Professor of Psychology and a professor of statistics and educational psychology at the University of Illinois. He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association, American Psychological Association, Association for Psychological Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science, and American Educational Research Association. Dr. Hubert has been a recipient of honors, including the Jacob Cohen Award for Distinguished Contributions to Teaching and Mentoring from Division 5 of the American Psychological Association. His research focuses on the development of exploratory methods for data representation in the behavioral sciences, emphasizing cluster analysis, spatially oriented multidimensional scaling techniques, and network representation procedures.
Howard Wainer is a Distinguished Research Scientist at the National Board of Medical Examiners and adjunct professor of statistics at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association and American Educational Research Association. Dr. Wainer has been a recipient of several honors, including the Samuel J. Messick Award for Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award from Division 5 of the American Psychological Association and the Career Achievement Award from the National Council on Measurement in Education. His research encompasses the use of graphical methods for data analysis and communication, robust statistical methodology, and the development and application of generalizations of item response theory.