Varde / Prakash / Joshi Risk Based Technologies

1. Auflage 2018
ISBN: 978-981-13-5796-1
Verlag: Springer Nature Singapore
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 320 Seiten

This book presents selected topics in implementing a risk-based approach for complex engineering systems in general, and nuclear plants in particular. It addresses gap areas in implementing the risk-based approach to design, operation and regulation, covering materials reliability, digital system reliability, software reliability, human factor considerations, condition monitoring and prognosis, structural aspects in risk-based design as well as the application aspects like asset management for first-of-their-kind projects, strategic management and other academic aspect. Chapters are authored by renowned experts who address some of the identified challenges in implementation of risk-based approach in a clear and cogent manner, using illustrations, tables and photographs for ease of communication. This book will prove useful to researchers, professionals, and students alike.

Prabhakar V. Varde is as an Associate Director in the Reactor Group and a senior Professor in the Homi Bhabha National Institute at Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai. He completed his BE (Mech.) from APS University, Rewa and his PhD in Reliability Engineering from IIT Bombay. He started his career as an operations engineer for nuclear research reactors in the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai, and for over three decades he has been serving at BARC in the area of nuclear reactor operations and safety.  His specializations are probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) and the development of risk-based applications. Prof Varde is the co-chairman of the PSA Committee (Level 2 and External Event) at the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, India, and a postdoctoral research scientist at Korea Atomic Energy Institute, South Korea and a visiting Professor at University of Maryland, Maryland, USA. He has served as an expert in many international forums including the International Atomic Energy Agency (Vienna), Nuclear Energy Agency (Paris), etc. He is founder of Society for Reliability and Safety and Chief Editor for the SRESA International Journal of Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering, and has authored over 220 peer-reviewed publications, in addition to serving as the editor for more than 5 conference proceedings, and co-authoring a textbook on Risk-based Engineering with Michael Pecht. Dr. Raghu Prakash is currently a Professor in the Department of Mechanical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras (IIT Madras) where he specializes in the areas of fatigue, fracture of materials (metals, composites, hybrids), structural integrity assessment, remaining life prediction of critical components used in transportation and energy sectors, apart from new product design. He has developed test systems for use in academia, R&D and industry during his tenure as Technical Director at BiSS Research, Bangalore and at IIT Madras he teaches courses relating to Fracture Mechanics, Design with Advanced Materials, Product Design, DFMA. He is a voting rights member of ASTM International (Technical Committees, D-30, E-08 and E-28) and the vice-Chair of the Technical Committee on Materials Processing and Characterization of ASME. He serves in the editorial boards of multiple journals including the Journal of Structural Longevity, Frattura ed Integrità Strutturale (IGF Journal), Journal of Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering, and is a member of several technical societies. He has won several prestigious awards and recognition for his work, including the Binani Gold Medal (Indian Institute of Metals). Mr. Narendra Joshi completed his Bachelor's degree in Mechanical Engineering from Govt. College of Engineering, Karad and joined BARC in year 1990, and has worked on the operation and maintenance of research reactors for 13 years- he was involved in the preparation of Probabilistic Risk Assessment of many research reactors, including Dhruva, Cirus, Upgraded Apsara, High Flux Research Reactor and other nuclear facilities. He is the Secretary and founder member of the Society for Reliability & Safety, in addition to serving as the Managing Editor of the International Journal on Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering. He was instrumental in successful organization of International Conference on Reliability, Safety and Hazard (ICRESH) held in 2005 and 2010 at Mumbai and 2015 at Lulea, Sweden. He has over 20 publications to his credit in journals and conferences. Mr. Joshi is currently looking after the activities of Human Resource Development, Simulator Training, Root Cause Analysis of Significant Events in research reactors at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Varde, Prabhakar V.

Prakash, Raghu V.

Joshi, Narendra S.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;Preface;5
2;Contents;9
3;About the Editors;11
4;Material Reliability in Nuclear Power Plants: A Case Study on Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors;14
4.1;1 Introduction;14
4.2;2 Nuclear Materials Design;15
4.3;3 Materials Reliability in Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs);16
4.4;4 What Does Materials Reliability Mean Under Critical Situation?;17
4.5;5 Gen. IV Reactor Concepts, Materials Issues, and Reliability;19
4.5.1;5.1 Brief on SFR Core Internal Materials [2, 3, 5, 10–12];19
4.5.2;5.2 Metal Fuels for SFR [5];21
4.5.3;5.3 Core Structural for SFR (for MOX and Metal-Fuel Kernels) [2, 3];22
4.6;6 Overall Technology Maturity of SFR In-Core Systems [3];24
4.6.1;6.1 Primary Sodium Pumps: Material and Fabrication;24
4.6.2;6.2 Intermediate Heat Exchanger (IHX);24
4.6.3;6.3 Power Conversion Cycle;25
4.7;7 Conclusions;26
4.8;References;27
5;Physics-of-Failure Methods and Prognostic and Health Management of Electronic Components;28
5.1;1 Introduction;28
5.2;2 Reliability Physics Approaches for Developing Robust Electronics Systems;29
5.3;3 Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) Approaches for Supporting Electronic Systems;34
5.4;4 Summary;35
5.5;References;36
6;Design of Advanced Reactors with Passive Safety Systems: The Reliability Concerns;37
6.1;1 Introduction;38
6.2;2 Can the Passive Systems Fail?;40
6.2.1;2.1 Difficulties in Evaluation of Functional Failure of Passive Systems;43
6.3;3 Methodologies for Reliability Assessment of Passive Systems;44
6.3.1;3.1 APSRA Versus RMPS: A Comparative Assessment;45
6.4;4 Issues in the Methodologies of Passive System Reliability Analysis;56
6.4.1;4.1 Treatment of Dynamic Failure Characteristics of Components;56
6.4.2;4.2 Treatment of Independent Process Parameter Variations in Passive System Reliability Analysis;56
6.4.3;4.3 Treatment of Model Uncertainties in a Consistent Manner;57
6.5;5 Closure;58
6.6;References;59
7;Uncertainty Modeling for Nonlinear Dynamic Systems––Loadings Applied in Time Domain;61
7.1;1 Introduction;61
7.2;2 Background Information;62
7.3;3 Challenges in Implementation of the SFEM-Based Reliability Evaluation Concept;64
7.4;4 A Novel Reliability Approach for Nonlinear Dynamic Systems––Loads Applied in Time Domain;65
7.5;5 Moving Least Squares and Kriging Methods;67
7.6;6 Improved Kriging Method;70
7.7;7 Verification Using a Case Study;70
7.8;8 Conclusions;74
7.9;References;74
8;Uncertainty Quantification of Failure Probability and a Dynamic Risk Analysis of Decision-Making for Maintenance of Aging Infrastructure;77
8.1;1 Introduction;78
8.2;2 A Statistical Analysis Methodology for a Multi-scale Fatigue Model;80
8.3;3 Development of a Multi-scale Fatigue Model in Five Steps;82
8.4;4 Steps 1–3 of a Fatigue Model for a Steel Pipe––A Numerical Example;83
8.5;5 Step 4 (Life at Level 3) of a Fatigue Model for a Steel Pipe––A Numerical Example;84
8.6;6 Step 5 (Life at Small Failures of Coverage) of a Fatigue Model for a Steel Pipe;85
8.7;7 From a Multi-scale Fatigue Model to a Dynamic Risk Analysis of a Maintenance Strategy;88
8.8;8 Significance and Limitations of the Multi-scale Fatigue Life Model and Risk Analysis;89
8.9;9 Concluding Remarks;90
8.10;References;91
9;Risk and Reliability Management Approach to Defence Strategic Systems;93
9.1;1 Introduction;94
9.2;2 Systems Safety Analysis;94
9.2.1;2.1 Systems Safety in Long-Range Ballistic Missiles;95
9.2.2;2.2 Systems Safety in Air Defence Systems;95
9.2.3;2.3 Flight Safety with Aerospace Vehicles;95
9.2.4;2.4 Systems Safety for Ship and Aerial Platforms Based Weapons;96
9.2.5;2.5 Software Vulnerability Assessment for Systems Safety;96
9.3;3 Systems Safety Analysis Tools;96
9.3.1;3.1 Fault Hazard Analysis;97
9.3.2;3.2 Fault Tree Analysis;97
9.3.3;3.3 Event Tree Analysis;98
9.3.4;3.4 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA);100
9.3.5;3.5 Failure Modes, Effects, Criticality Analysis (FMECA);101
9.3.6;3.6 Consequence Analysis;102
9.3.7;3.7 Tools for Testing Software Vulnerability;102
9.4;4 Risk Management of Defence Systems;103
9.5;5 Challenges in Risk Management of Defence Systems;110
9.6;6 Systems Safety and Reliability;110
9.7;7 Conclusions;112
9.8;References;113
10;Risk-Informed Approach for Project Scheduling and Forecasting, During Commissioning Phase of a First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) Nuclear Plant: A System Theoretic and Bayesian Framework;114
10.1;1 Introduction;115
10.2;2 Layout of the SSEs of a Liquid Metal Cooled Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR);116
10.2.1;2.1 Formulation of Commissioning Methodology;118
10.3;3 The System Theoretic Approach for Estimation of the Commissioning Time;120
10.3.1;3.1 Rudimentary Model for the Industrial Worker;123
10.3.2;3.2 Models for the Human–Machine Interface in Erection, Installation, and Commissioning of SSEs;123
10.3.3;3.3 Estimation of the State;127
10.3.4;3.4 Use of a Kalman Filter;128
10.4;4 Factors for Building in Accuracy in Project Schedules;129
10.5;5 Robust Models for Factoring in Uncertainties;131
10.6;6 Bayesian Framework;132
10.7;7 Conclusion;135
10.8;References;135
11;Human Reliability as a Science—A Divergence on Models;137
11.1;1 Introduction;137
11.2;2 A Very Brief Overview of Human Reliability Models;138
11.3;3 The Definition of Science;139
11.4;4 Do We Know Enough?;141
11.5;5 A Very Brief Introduction to HRA Data;147
11.6;6 Have We Experimented Enough?;150
11.7;7 Conclusions;151
11.8;References;151
12;Human Reliability Assessment—State of the Art for Task- and Goal-Related Behavior;153
12.1;1 Importance of the Reliability of Human Actions;153
12.1.1;1.1 The Human Factor;153
12.2;2 Systemic Consideration of Human Reliability;155
12.2.1;2.1 Importance of the Working Levels;155
12.2.2;2.2 Influence of the Context;157
12.2.3;2.3 Influence of System Complexity on Human Action;158
12.3;3 Approaches to Human Reliability Assessment;168
12.3.1;3.1 Principle of the Procedures for Judging Human Actions;168
12.3.2;3.2 Task-Oriented Procedures;170
12.3.3;3.3 Utility-Oriented Procedures;172
12.4;4 Important Pitfalls in System Safety Assessment;174
12.4.1;4.1 Design-Bases Versus Beyond- Design-Bases Events;174
12.4.2;4.2 Scope of the System Addressed in the Safety Assessment;176
12.5;References;179
13;Reliability of Non-destructive Testing in the Railway Field: Common Practice and New Trends;182
13.1;1 Introduction;182
13.2;2 Probability of Detection Curves in a Nutshell;185
13.3;3 Reliability of Non-destructive Testing of Solid Railway Axles;188
13.4;4 Reliability of Non-destructive Testing of Hollow Railway Axles;192
13.5;5 Reliability of Non-destructive Testing of Rails;194
13.6;6 Conclusions;198
13.7;References;199
14;Toward Improved and Reliable Estimation of Operating Life of Critical Components Through Assessment of Fatigue Properties Using Novel Fatigue Testing Concepts;201
14.1;1 Introduction;202
14.2;2 Fatigue Properties Estimation in Power Plant Materials Through Novel Test Methods;204
14.2.1;2.1 Cyclic Ball Indentation Test Method;204
14.2.2;2.2 Cyclic Small Punch Tests;208
14.3;3 Advances in Corrosion-Fatigue Crack Growth Rate Studies;210
14.3.1;3.1 Mitigation of Corrosion-Fatigue Crack Growth Rates Through Electrode Potential;212
14.4;4 Summary;214
14.5;References;215
15;Joint Release and Testing Stop Time Policy with Testing-Effort and Change Point;217
15.1;1 Introduction;218
15.2;2 Software Reliability Modeling;220
15.2.1;2.1 Notations;221
15.2.2;2.2 Assumptions;221
15.2.3;2.3 Testing-Effort Dependent Modeling Framework;222
15.2.4;2.4 Cost Modeling;224
15.3;3 Optimal Policies Using MAUT;225
15.3.1;3.1 Multi-attribute Utility Theory;226
15.4;4 Numerical Example;227
15.5;5 Conclusion;228
15.6;References;228
16;MIRCE Science Based Operational Risk Assessment;231
16.1;1 Introduction;232
16.2;2 Reliability Theory Approach to Risk Assessment;233
16.2.1;2.1 Reliability Function;234
16.2.2;2.2 Physical Meaning of a Reliability Function;235
16.2.3;2.3 Mathematical Meaning of Reliability Function;236
16.3;3 What Is Beyond a Reliability Function?;237
16.4;4 Physical Reality Beyond the Reliability Function;237
16.4.1;4.1 Boeing N747PA;238
16.4.2;4.2 Monaco Grand Prix 2018;240
16.4.3;4.3 Summary;241
16.5;5 The Philosophy of MIRCE Science;242
16.6;6 Axioms of MIRCE Science;243
16.7;7 MIRCE Space Is Beyond the Reliability Function;244
16.8;8 The Concept of MIRCE Space in MIRCE Science;246
16.8.1;8.1 Probabilistic Motion Through MIRCE Space;247
16.8.2;8.2 Sequentiality of Functionability Events in MIRCE Science;248
16.9;9 MIRCE Functionability Equation;250
16.10;10 MIRCE Functionability Work Equations;251
16.11;11 MIRCE Mechanics;252
16.11.1;11.1 Negative Functionability Events Generating Mechanisms;253
16.11.2;11.2 Positive Functionability Actions;254
16.11.3;11.3 Physical Scale of MIRCE Mechanics;255
16.12;12 The Role of MIRCE Science in Life Cycle Engineering and Management;257
16.13;13 Conclusions;258
16.14;Appendix: Worldwide Observed MIRCE Science Functionability Events;259
16.15;Reference;263
17;Polya Urn Model for Assessment of Prestress Loss in Prestressed Concrete (PSC) Girders in a Bridge System using Limited Monitoring Data;264
17.1;1 Introduction;265
17.2;2 Polya Urn Model;266
17.3;3 Procedure for Condition Assessment of Prestressed Concrete Girders in a Bridge System using Limited Monitoring Data;270
17.3.1;3.1 Prediction of Expected Prestress Loss at Different Times;271
17.3.2;3.2 Estimation of Prestress Loss Using Strain Monitoring Data;271
17.4;4 Illustrative Example;272
17.4.1;4.1 Determination of Allowable Prestress Loss at Different Times;272
17.4.2;4.2 Application of Polya Urn Model;273
17.5;5 Case Study;275
17.6;6 Summary;283
17.7;References;284
18;Metamodeling-Based Reliability Analysis of Structures Under Stochastic Dynamic Loads with Special Emphasis to Earthquake;286
18.1;1 Introduction;286
18.2;2 Reliability Analysis of Structures by MCS in the Metamodeling Framework;289
18.2.1;2.1 Dual RSM Approach of Response Approximation;290
18.2.2;2.2 Proposed Direct Response Approximation Approach;290
18.3;3 Various Metamodeling Approaches;291
18.3.1;3.1 LSM-Based RSM;292
18.3.2;3.2 MLSM-Based RSM;292
18.3.3;3.3 ANN-Based Metamodeling;293
18.3.4;3.4 Kriging Metamodeling;294
18.3.5;3.5 SVR-Based Metamodeling;296
18.4;4 Design of Experiment Scheme for Metamodel Construction;298
18.5;5 Numerical Demonstration;299
18.6;6 Summary and Observations;302
18.7;References;303
19;Application of Reliability and Other Associated Mathematical Principles to Engineering and Other Disciplines;305
19.1;1 Introduction: How to Conduct Interdisciplinary Research?;306
19.2;2 Case-1 Sociology: Mathematical Formulation of Poverty Index;306
19.2.1;2.1 Description of New Model;307
19.2.2;2.2 Validation of the New Model;308
19.2.3;2.3 Analysis of Data;308
19.2.4;2.4 Application of Optimization Principles to Poverty Index;311
19.2.5;2.5 Results;311
19.2.6;2.6 Conclusions;313
19.3;3 Case-II Civil Engineering: Probabilistic Analysis of Cycle Length for Signalized Intersections in Transportation Engineering;313
19.3.1;3.1 Methodology;314
19.3.2;3.2 Results and Discussion of Results;315
19.3.3;3.3 Conclusions;315
19.4;4 Case-III Kinesiology: Calculation of Forces in a Lumbar Spine Model with Multiple Support Stays;315
19.4.1;4.1 Refined Lumbar Spine Model;317
19.4.2;4.2 Conclusion;319
19.5;References;320