Vavreck The Message Matters

The Economy and Presidential Campaigns
Course Book
ISBN: 978-1-4008-3048-0
Verlag: De Gruyter
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 232 Seiten

No detailed description available for "The Message Matters".

Autoren/Hrsg.

Vavreck, Lynn

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Politische Kultur Politische Propaganda & Kampagnen, Politik & Medien
• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Politische Systeme Wahlen und Volksabstimmungen
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Volkswirtschaftslehre Volkswirtschaftslehre Allgemein

Inhaltsverzeichnis

List of Figures xi

List of Tables xiii

Acknowledgments xvii

Prologue xxi

CHAPTER ONE: Presidential Campaigns 1

Basic Questions 2

What's Coming 3

PART I

CHAPTER TWO: How and Why Campaigns Matter 9

The Challenge 10

Something's Happening in America 11

The Importance of the Economy 12

The Importance of the Media 14

A Theory of Campaign Effects 15

Integrating Literatures 16

Spatial Voting: The Past as Predictor of the Future 18

Retrospective Voting and Campaign Effects 22

Individual-Level Characteristics and Campaign Effects 23

CHAPTER THREE: Context Matters: A Campaign Typology 26

Theoretical Predictions 28

A Campaign Typology 31

Clarifying Campaigns 31

Insurgent Campaigns 32

When the Economy Is Mixed 33

Predicting Campaign Types, 1952-2000 35

PART II

CHAPTER FOUR: The Media Disconnect:Media and Candidate Messages 43

Candidates' Messages and How to Measure Them 46

Advertisements and Speeches 46

Newspaper Coverage 48

Coding the Ads, Speeches, and News Coverage 53

The Content of Modern Campaigns 57

The Media Disconnect 58

CHAPTER FIVE: The Message Matters: Candidate-Level Tests of the Theory 67

Clarifying Campaigns: Dominating Economic Discussion 69

Insurgent Campaigns: Issue Selection Matters 71

Stevenson 1952 and 1956: Second Time Same as the First 76

Goldwater 1964: Just Enough Power to Get the Job Done 78

Carter 1980 and Mondale 1984:War through Strength 80

Dukakis 1988: An Unfocused American Dream 82

Insurgent Candidates Making Wise Choices 83

Kennedy 1960: High Hopes 83

Nixon 1968: Freedom from Fear or Racial Appeal? 86

Carter 1976: Outside and Honest 90

Two More Tests of the Theory at the Candidate Level 105

A More Rigorous Test of Compliance 105

Explaining the Errors in Forecasting Models 107

PART III

CHAPTER SIX: The Message Matters:Microlevel Tests of the Theory 113

Clarifying Candidate Campaign Effects: Do Campaign Messages Shape Voters' Evaluations of Candidates? 115

High Fidelity? 116

Ads:Messages That Matter 120

Clarifying Candidate Campaign Effects: Do Campaign Messages Help Voters Learn about Candidates' Issue Positions? 123

Measuring Uncertainty 125

Reducing Uncertainty 128

Campaign Learning about the Economy 131

Insurgent-Candidate Campaign Effects: Changing the Debate by Increasing the Importance of Issues 134

The Most Important Problem in the Nation 137

Most Important Problem and Vote Choice 140

Insurgent Candidate Campaign Effects: Being Closer to Most Voters on the Insurgent Issue 144

The Difference in Distances 144

Differences in Distances and Vote Choice 151

The Message and Its Effects 155

CHAPTER SEVEN: Candidates Creating Context 159

Can Candidates Create the Context? 160

Creating Salience: Finding the Right Insurgent Issue 163

Appendix 167

References 191

Index 199

Über Autor(innen)

Lynn Vavreck is associate professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles. She is coeditor of Campaign Reform: Insights and Evidence and coprincipal investigator of the Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project.