E-Book, Englisch, 583 Seiten
Verma / Ajit / Karanki Reliability and Safety Engineering
2. Auflage 2016
ISBN: 978-1-4471-6269-8
Verlag: Springer
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark
E-Book, Englisch, 583 Seiten
Reihe: Springer Series in Reliability Engineering
ISBN: 978-1-4471-6269-8
Verlag: Springer
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark
Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz., electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Case studies from typical nuclear power plants as well as from structural, software and electronic systems are also discussed. Reliability and Safety Engineering combines discussions of the existing literature on basic concepts and applications with state-of-the-art methods used in reliability and risk assessment of engineering systems. It is designed to assist practicing engineers, students and researchers in the areas of reliability engineering and risk analysis.
Ajit K. Verma is a Professor (Technical Safety), ATØM, Stord/Haugesund University College, Haugesund, Norway (since March 2012) and has been a Professor (since Feb 2001) and Senior (HAG) scale Professor (since Jan 2013) with the Department ofElectrical Engineering at IIT Bombay with a research focus in Reliability and Safety Engineering( He has been on leave from IIT Bombay since March 2012). He was the Director of the International Institute of Information Technology Pune, on lien from IIT Bombay, from Aug 2009-Sep 2010. He has supervised/co-supervised 37 PhDs(IIT Bombay and Lulea Technical University, Sweden) and 95 Masters theses(IIT Bombay; LJMU,UK; WMG,Warwick University,UK) in the area of Electronics System reliability, Software Reliability, Reliable Computing, Power Systems Reliability (PSR), Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) and Probabilistic Safety/Risk Assessment (PSA) and Plant Engineering. He is the Springer Book Series Editor of Reliable & Sustainable Electric Power and Energy Systems Management and jointly edited(with Prof.Roy Billinton and Prof.Rajesh Karki) books titled 1.Reliability and Risk Evaluation of Wind Integrated Power Systems 2. Reliability Modeling and Analysis of Smart Power Systems andis also an author of books titled Fuzzy Reliability Engineering-Concepts and Applications (Narosa), Optimal Maintenance of Large Engineering initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;'>Systems(Narosa), Reliability and Safety Engineering (Springer), Dependability of Networked Computer Based Systems (Springer),Risk Management of Non-Renewable Energy Systems(Springer). He has over 250 publications in various journals (125 papers) and conferences. He is a senior member of IEEE and a life fellowof IETE. He has been the Editor-in-Chief of OPSEARCH published by Springer(Jan 2008-Jan 2011) as well as the Founder Editor-in-Chief of International Journal of Systems Assurance Engineering and Management(IJSAEM) published by Springer and an Editor-in-Chief of Journal of Life Cycle Reliability and Safety Engineering. He has been on the editorial board of international journals like Quality Assurance (Associate Editor), International Journal of Automation & Computing(Springer) (Associate Editor), Communications in Dependabilityand Quality Management, International Journal of Performability Engineering, International Journal of Reliability, Quality andSafety Engineering (World Scientific), International Journal of Quality, Statistics, andReliability (Hindawi) and on the advisory board of OPSEARCH(published by Springer) and International Journal of Swarm Intelligence(Inderscience). He has served as a Guest Editor of Special Issueof IETE Technical Review on Quality Management in Electronics, Telecommunication& Information Technology, 2001 and as a Guest Editor of Special Issue of International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering (World Scientific) Dec 2004, June 2006, April 2008, Dec 2009 & June 2010. He hasbeen a Guest Editor of Special Issue of DQM Communications, 2006, 2007 & 2009 and Special Issue on 'Dependability in computing systems' of International Journal ofPerformability Engineering, 2006. He was a Guest Editor of Special Issue on 'Reliable Computing' of International Journal of Automation and Computing (Oct 2007), May 2010, IJSAEM (June 2010) (with Prof Roy Billintonand Prof RajeshKarki) and IJSAEM (March 2011) ( with Prof Lotfi Zadeh and Prof Ashok Deshpande) and IEEE Transactions on Reliability, March 2011 . He is an Editor of ` Current Trends in Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety- An Industry Perspective` being published by Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering, Springer Series. Prof. A. Srividya is a Professor II at Stord/Haugesund University College(Aug 2014-July 2015). She was a Guest Professor from August 2012 till July 2014 at Stord/Haugesund University College, Haugesund,Norway prior to which she worked with IIT Bombay since 1988 where she is a Professor in Civil Engineering with research focus in the areas of Reliability & Safety Engineering and Quality Management. She has supervised/co-supervised 28 PhD's and 50 Masters thesis in the area of Structural Reliability, Reliability Based Optimisation, Simulation Studies for Reliability Estimation, Quality Benchmarking Studies for Service Industries, Quality Systems and Accelerated Life Testing. She has executed various research projects to promote industry interface and has been course co-ordinator for industry CEPs like Reliability Engineering and Quality Management and Six Sigma for IT industries. She has jointly authored books titled 'Fuzzy Reliability Engineering-Concepts and Applications'(Narosa) and 'Optimal Maintenance of Large Engineering Systems'(Narosa), 'Reliability and Safety Engineering'(Springer), 'Dependability of Networked Computer based Systems'(Springer)and `Risk Management of Non-Renewable Energy Systems' (Springer). She has 205 publications in various international and national journals and conferences. She has been an Area Editor of OPSEARCH journal published by Springer as well as an Editor of International Journal of Systems Assurance Engineering and Management(IJSAEM) published by Springer and Member in the Editorial Board of International journal of Communications in Dependability and Quality Management. She has been Conference Chairperson of International Conference on Reliability, Safety & Hazard 2005 (Advances in Risk Informed Technology) at Hotel the Leela, Mumbai, Dec 01-03, 2005. She was instrumental in editing and reviewing the proceedings of various International Conferences like International Conference on Quality Reliability and Control 2001, International Conference on Multimedia and Design 2002 and International Conference on Quality Reliability and Information Technology 2003 and International Conference on Reliability, Safety & Hazard 2005 and anEditor of the proceedings (Narosa). She was also the Conference Chair for International Conference on Quality, Reliability and Infocom Technology held at INSA, New Delhi(Dec' 2-4),2006. She was a Conference Chair of the International Conference on Reliability, Safety and Quality Engineering, held at NPCIL, Mumbai from Jan 5-7, 2008 and Editor of the proceedings (Macmillan), Conference Chair, 4th International Conference on Quality, Reliability and Infocom Technology 2009 (ICQRIT - 2009), 18 - 20 Dec 2009 New Delhi, India. She is a recipient of 'Leadership in Reliability Engineering Education & Research award' by Society of Reliability Engineering, Quality & Operations Management. Dr. Durga Rao Karanki has been working as a Scientist at Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland since 2009. His current research primarily focuses on dynamic risk assessment and uncertainty propagation. He is a visiting faculty at KINGS, Ulsan, South Korea and Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur. He is on the editorial board of three international journals in the area of reliability and risk analysis. He has actively been involved in probabilistic safety assessment and risk informed decision-making research on nuclear reactors for the last 12 years. His research resulted in more than 50 publications including 2 books, 12 first author journal papers, and several conference papers. One of his works got into the list of most cited Reliability Engineering and System Safety articles (2013 and 2014). He received two awards (2009, 2012) for research Excellency from Society for Reliability Engineering, Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM), New Delhi. Prior to joining PSI, he worked as a Scientific Officer (2002- 2009) in PSA Section of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (Mumbai, India), where he conducted research on Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis, Uncertainty Analysis, and Risk Informed Decision Making. He was also a visiting faculty at Department of Atomic Energy (India) training schools. He holds B.Tech in Electrical and Electronics Engineering from the Nagarjuna University (India), M.Tech in Reliability Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kharagpur and Ph.D. from the IIT Bombay.
Autoren/Hrsg.
Weitere Infos & Material
1;Foreword;7
2;Preface;9
3;Acknowledgments;11
4;Contents;12
5;1 Introduction;20
5.1;1.1 Need for Reliability and Safety Engineering;20
5.2;1.2 Exploring Failures;21
5.3;1.3 Improving Reliability and Safety;22
5.4;1.4 Definitions and Explanation of Some Relevant Terms;23
5.4.1;1.4.1 Quality;23
5.4.2;1.4.2 Reliability;24
5.4.3;1.4.3 Maintainability;24
5.4.4;1.4.4 Availability;25
5.4.5;1.4.5 Risk and Safety;25
5.4.6;1.4.6 Probabilistic Risk Assessment/Probabilistic Safety Assessment;26
5.5;1.5 Resources;26
5.6;1.6 History;27
5.7;1.7 Present Challenges and Future Needs for the Practice of Reliability and Safety Engineering;31
5.8;References;34
6;2 Basic Reliability Mathematics;37
6.1;2.1 Classical Set Theory and Boolean Algebra;37
6.1.1;2.1.1 Operations on Sets;37
6.1.2;2.1.2 Laws of Set Theory;39
6.1.3;2.1.3 Boolean Algebra;39
6.2;2.2 Concepts of Probability Theory;40
6.2.1;2.2.1 Axioms of Probability;42
6.2.2;2.2.2 Calculus of Probability Theory;42
6.2.3;2.2.3 Random Variables and Probability Distributions;46
6.3;2.3 Reliability and Hazard Functions;49
6.4;2.4 Distributions Used in Reliability and Safety Studies;52
6.4.1;2.4.1 Discrete Probability Distributions;52
6.4.1.1;2.4.1.1 Binomial Distribution;52
6.4.1.2;2.4.1.2 Poisson Distribution;55
6.4.1.3;2.4.1.3 Hyper Geometric Distribution;57
6.4.1.4;2.4.1.4 Geometric Distribution;57
6.4.2;2.4.2 Continuous Probability Distributions;58
6.4.2.1;2.4.2.1 Exponential Distribution;58
6.4.2.2;2.4.2.2 Normal Distribution;61
6.4.2.3;2.4.2.3 Lognormal Distribution;65
6.4.2.4;2.4.2.4 Weibull Distribution;68
6.4.2.5;2.4.2.5 Gamma Distribution;71
6.4.2.6;2.4.2.6 Erlangian Distribution;72
6.4.2.7;2.4.2.7 Chi-Square Distribution;73
6.4.2.8;2.4.2.8 F-Distribution;74
6.4.2.9;2.4.2.9 t-Distribution;76
6.4.3;2.4.3 Summary;77
6.5;2.5 Failure Data Analysis;77
6.5.1;2.5.1 Nonparametric Methods;77
6.5.2;2.5.2 Parametric Methods;81
6.5.2.1;2.5.2.1 Identifying Candidate Distributions;82
6.5.2.2;2.5.2.2 Estimating the Parameters of Distribution;86
6.5.2.3;2.5.2.3 Goodness-of-Fit Tests;89
6.6;References;90
7;3 System Reliability Modeling;92
7.1;3.1 Reliability Block Diagram (RBD);92
7.1.1;3.1.1 Procedure for System Reliability Prediction Using RBD;92
7.1.2;3.1.2 Different Types of Models;95
7.1.3;3.1.3 Solving RBD;104
7.1.3.1;3.1.3.1 Truth Table Method;104
7.1.3.2;3.1.3.2 Cut-Set and Tie-Set Method;106
7.1.3.3;3.1.3.3 Bounds Method;109
7.2;3.2 Markov Models;109
7.2.1;3.2.1 Elements of Markov Models;109
7.3;3.3 Fault Tree Analysis;121
7.3.1;3.3.1 Procedure for Carrying Out Fault Tree Analysis;121
7.3.2;3.3.2 Elements of Fault Tree;124
7.3.3;3.3.3 Evaluations of Fault Tree;126
7.3.4;3.3.4 Case Study;132
7.4;References;139
8;4 Reliability of Complex Systems;140
8.1;4.1 Monte Carlo Simulation;140
8.1.1;4.1.1 Analytical versus Simulation Approaches for System Reliability Modeling;140
8.1.2;4.1.2 Elements of Monte Carlo Simulation;142
8.1.3;4.1.3 Repairable Series and Parallel System;144
8.1.4;4.1.4 Simulation Procedure for Complex Systems;149
8.1.4.1;4.1.4.1 Case Study---AC Power Supply System of Indian NPP;150
8.1.5;4.1.5 Increasing Efficiency of Simulation;156
8.2;4.2 Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis;157
8.2.1;4.2.1 Dynamic Fault Tree Gates;158
8.2.2;4.2.2 Modular Solution for Dynamic Fault Trees;160
8.2.3;4.2.3 Numerical Method;161
8.2.4;4.2.4 Monte Carlo Simulation;164
8.2.4.1;4.2.4.1 Case Study 1---Simplified Electrical (AC) Power Supply System of NPP;168
8.2.4.2;4.2.4.2 Case Study 2---Reactor Regulation System (RRS) of NPP;173
8.3;References;175
9;5 Electronic System Reliability;177
9.1;5.1 Importance of Electronic Industry;177
9.2;5.2 Various Components Used and Their Failure Mechanisms;178
9.2.1;5.2.1 Resistors;178
9.2.2;5.2.2 Capacitors;178
9.2.3;5.2.3 Inductors;179
9.2.4;5.2.4 Relays;179
9.2.5;5.2.5 Semiconductor Devices;179
9.2.6;5.2.6 Microcircuits (ICs);180
9.3;5.3 Reliability Prediction of Electronic Systems;181
9.3.1;5.3.1 Parts Count Method;182
9.3.2;5.3.2 Parts Stress Method;182
9.4;5.4 PRISM;183
9.5;5.5 Sneak Circuit Analysis (SCA);185
9.5.1;5.5.1 Definition of SCA;185
9.5.2;5.5.2 Network Tree Production;186
9.5.3;5.5.3 Topological Pattern Identification;186
9.6;5.6 Case Study;187
9.6.1;5.6.1 Total Failure Rate;188
9.7;5.7 Physics of Failure Mechanisms of Electronic Components;190
9.7.1;5.7.1 Physics of Failures;190
9.7.2;5.7.2 Failure Mechanisms for Resistors;190
9.7.2.1;5.7.2.1 Failure Due to Excessive Heating;190
9.7.2.2;5.7.2.2 Failure Due to Metal Diffusion and Oxidation;191
9.7.3;5.7.3 Failure Mechanisms for Capacitor;192
9.7.3.1;5.7.3.1 Dielectric Breakdown;192
9.7.4;5.7.4 MOS Failure Mechanisms;192
9.7.4.1;5.7.4.1 Electro Migration (EM);193
9.7.4.2;5.7.4.2 Time Dependent Dielectric Breakdown;193
9.7.4.2.1;AHI (Anode Hole Injection);194
9.7.4.2.2;Thermo-Chemical Model;194
9.7.4.2.3;Anode Hydrogen Release (AHR);194
9.7.4.3;5.7.4.3 Hot Carrier Injection;195
9.7.4.4;5.7.4.4 Negative Bias Temperature Instability;195
9.7.5;5.7.5 Field Programmable Gate Array;196
9.7.5.1;5.7.5.1 Hierarchical Model;196
9.7.5.2;5.7.5.2 Optimal Model;197
9.7.5.3;5.7.5.3 Coarse Model;197
9.7.5.4;5.7.5.4 Tile Based Model;197
9.8;References;198
10;6 Software Reliability;199
10.1;6.1 Introduction to Software Reliability;199
10.2;6.2 Past Incidences of Software Failures in Safety Critical Systems;200
10.3;6.3 The Need for Reliable Software;203
10.4;6.4 Difference Between Hardware Reliability and Software Reliability;204
10.5;6.5 Software Reliability Modeling;205
10.5.1;6.5.1 Software Reliability Growth Models;207
10.5.2;6.5.2 Black Box Software Reliability Models;207
10.5.3;6.5.3 White Box Software Reliability Models;208
10.6;6.6 How to Implement Software Reliability;208
10.7;6.7 Emerging Techniques in Software Reliability Modeling---Soft Computing Technique;215
10.7.1;6.7.1 Need for Soft Computing Methods;217
10.7.2;6.7.2 Environmental Parameters;217
10.7.3;6.7.3 Anil-Verma Model;224
10.8;6.8 Future Trends of Software Reliability;231
10.9;References;232
11;7 Mechanical Reliability;234
11.1;7.1 Reliability Versus Durability;235
11.2;7.2 Failure Modes in Mechanical Systems;236
11.2.1;7.2.1 Failures Due to Operating Load;237
11.2.2;7.2.2 Failure Due to Environment;241
11.3;7.3 Reliability Circle;241
11.3.1;7.3.1 Specify Reliability;243
11.3.2;7.3.2 Design for Reliability;246
11.3.2.1;7.3.2.1 Reliability Analysis and Prediction;248
11.3.2.2;7.3.2.2 Stress-Strength Interference Theory;256
11.3.3;7.3.3 Test for Reliability;260
11.3.3.1;7.3.3.1 Degradation Data Analysis;264
11.3.4;7.3.4 Maintain the Manufacturing Reliability;265
11.3.5;7.3.5 Operational Reliability;267
11.4;References;270
12;8 Structural Reliability;271
12.1;8.1 Deterministic versus Probabilistic Approach in Structural Engineering;271
12.2;8.2 The Basic Reliability Problem;272
12.2.1;8.2.1 First Order Second Moment (FOSM) Method;273
12.2.2;8.2.2 Advanced First Order Second Moment Method (AFOSM);277
12.3;8.3 First Order Reliability Method (FORM);278
12.4;8.4 Reliability Analysis for Correlated Variables;282
12.4.1;8.4.1 Reliability Analysis for Correlated Normal Variables;283
12.4.2;8.4.2 Reliability Analysis for Correlated Non-normal Variables;284
12.5;8.5 Second Order Reliability Methods (SORM);285
12.6;8.6 System Reliability;296
12.6.1;8.6.1 Classification of Systems;296
12.6.1.1;8.6.1.1 Series System;296
12.6.1.2;8.6.1.2 Parallel System;297
12.6.1.3;8.6.1.3 Combined Series-Parallel Systems;298
12.6.2;8.6.2 Evaluation of System Reliability;298
12.6.2.1;8.6.2.1 Numerical Integration;299
12.6.2.2;8.6.2.2 Bounding Techniques;299
12.6.2.3;8.6.2.3 Approximate Methods;300
12.7;References;306
13;9 Maintenance of Large Engineering Systems;307
13.1;9.1 Introduction;307
13.2;9.2 Peculiarities of a Large Setup of Machinery;308
13.3;9.3 Prioritizing the Machinery for Maintenance Requirements;310
13.3.1;9.3.1 Hierarchical Level of Machinery;313
13.3.2;9.3.2 FMECA (Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis);315
13.3.2.1;9.3.2.1 FMEA;316
13.3.2.2;9.3.2.2 CA (Criticality Analysis);319
13.3.2.3;9.3.2.3 Criticality Ranking;321
13.3.2.3.1;FMECA Summary;321
13.4;9.4 Maintenance Scheduling of a Large Setup of Machinery;323
13.4.1;9.4.1 Introduction;323
13.4.2;9.4.2 Example;325
13.4.3;9.4.3 Example---MOOP of Maintenance Interval Scheduling;328
13.4.4;9.4.4 Use of NSGA II---Elitist Genetic Algorithm Program;330
13.4.5;9.4.5 Assumptions and Result;331
13.5;9.5 Decision Regarding Maintenance Before an Operational Mission;335
13.5.1;9.5.1 Introduction;335
13.5.2;9.5.2 The Model;336
13.5.3;9.5.3 Assumptions;337
13.5.4;9.5.4 Result;343
13.6;9.6 Summary;345
13.7;References;346
14;10 Probabilistic Safety Assessment;347
14.1;10.1 Introduction;347
14.2;10.2 Concept of Risk and Safety;347
14.3;10.3 An Overview of Probabilistic Safety Assessment Tasks;350
14.4;10.4 Identification of Hazards and Initiating Events;353
14.4.1;10.4.1 Preliminary Hazard Analysis;353
14.4.2;10.4.2 Master Logic Diagram (MLD);353
14.5;10.5 Event Tree Analysis;354
14.6;10.6 Importance Measures;360
14.7;10.7 Common Cause Failure Analysis;363
14.7.1;10.7.1 Treatment of Dependent Failures;364
14.7.2;10.7.2 The Procedural Framework for CCF Analysis;366
14.7.3;10.7.3 Treatment of Common Cause Failures in Fault Tree Models;366
14.7.4;10.7.4 Common Cause Failure Models;371
14.8;10.8 Human Reliability Analysis;379
14.8.1;10.8.1 HRA Concepts;379
14.8.2;10.8.2 HRA Process, Methods, and Tools;380
14.8.2.1;10.8.2.1 HRA Process;380
14.8.2.2;10.8.2.2 HRA Methods;381
14.9;References;384
15;11 Dynamic PSA;387
15.1;11.1 Introduction to Dynamic PSA;387
15.1.1;11.1.1 Need for Dynamic PSA;387
15.1.2;11.1.2 Dynamic Methods for Risk Assessment;388
15.2;11.2 Dynamic Event Tree Analysis;390
15.2.1;11.2.1 Event Tree versus Dynamic Event Tree;390
15.2.2;11.2.2 DET Approach---Steps Involved;390
15.2.3;11.2.3 DET Implementation---Comparison Among Tools;393
15.3;11.3 Example---Depleting Tank;396
15.3.1;11.3.1 Description on Depleting Tank Problem;396
15.3.2;11.3.2 Analytical Solution;397
15.3.3;11.3.3 Discrete DET Solution;399
15.4;11.4 DET Quantification of Risk---Practical Issues and Possible Solutions;402
15.4.1;11.4.1 Challenges in Direct Quantification of Risk with DET;402
15.4.2;11.4.2 Uncertainties and Dynamics in Risk Assessment;403
15.5;References;404
16;12 Applications of PSA;407
16.1;12.1 Objectives of PSA;407
16.2;12.2 PSA of Nuclear Power Plant;408
16.2.1;12.2.1 Description of PHWR;408
16.2.2;12.2.2 PSA of Indian NPP (PHWR Design);410
16.2.2.1;12.2.2.1 Dominating Initiating Events;411
16.2.2.2;12.2.2.2 Reliability Analysis;415
16.2.2.3;12.2.2.3 Accident Sequence Identification;417
16.2.2.4;12.2.2.4 Event Trees;419
16.2.2.5;12.2.2.5 Dominating Accident Sequences;422
16.2.2.6;12.2.2.6 Risk Importance Measures;423
16.3;12.3 Technical Specification Optimization;424
16.3.1;12.3.1 Traditional Approaches for Technical Specification Optimization;424
16.3.1.1;12.3.1.1 Measures Applicable for AOT Evaluations;425
16.3.1.2;12.3.1.2 Measures Applicable for STI Evaluations;427
16.3.2;12.3.2 Advanced Techniques for Technical Specification Optimization;427
16.3.2.1;12.3.2.1 Mathematical Modeling of Problem;428
16.3.2.2;12.3.2.2 Genetic Algorithm (GA) as Optimization Method;430
16.3.2.3;12.3.2.3 Case Studies: Test Interval Optimization for Emergency Core Cooling System of PHWR;431
16.4;12.4 Risk Monitor;434
16.4.1;12.4.1 Necessity of Risk Monitor?;435
16.4.2;12.4.2 Different Modules of Risk Monitor;435
16.4.3;12.4.3 Applications of Risk Monitor;437
16.5;12.5 Risk Informed In-Service Inspection;439
16.5.1;12.5.1 RI-ISI Models;440
16.5.1.1;12.5.1.1 ASME/WOG Model;440
16.5.1.2;12.5.1.2 EPRI Model;443
16.5.1.3;12.5.1.3 Comparison of RI-ISI Models;446
16.5.2;12.5.2 ISI and Piping Failure Frequency;448
16.5.2.1;12.5.2.1 In-Service Inspection;448
16.5.2.2;12.5.2.2 Models for Including ISI Effect on Piping Failure Frequency;450
16.5.2.3;12.5.2.3 Case Study;457
16.5.2.4;12.5.2.4 Using Three-State Markov Model;458
16.5.2.5;12.5.2.5 Using Four-State Markov Model;461
16.6;References;468
17;13 Uncertainty Analysis in Reliability/Safety Assessment;470
17.1;13.1 Mathematical Models and Uncertainties;470
17.2;13.2 Uncertainty Analysis: An Important Task of PRA/PSA;472
17.3;13.3 Methods of Characterising Uncertainties;474
17.3.1;13.3.1 The Probabilistic Approach;474
17.3.2;13.3.2 Interval and Fuzzy Representation;475
17.3.3;13.3.3 Dempster-Shafer Theory Based Representation;476
17.4;13.4 Bayesian Approach;478
17.5;13.5 Expert Elicitation Methods;483
17.5.1;13.5.1 Definition and Uses of Expert Elicitation;483
17.5.2;13.5.2 Treatment of Expert Elicitation Process;483
17.5.3;13.5.3 Methods of Treatment;484
17.6;13.6 Uncertainty Propagation;487
17.6.1;13.6.1 Method of Moments;487
17.6.1.1;13.6.1.1 Consideration of Correlation Using Method of Moments;489
17.6.2;13.6.2 Monte Carlo Simulation;493
17.6.2.1;13.6.2.1 Latin Hypercube Sampling;496
17.6.3;13.6.3 Interval Analysis;497
17.6.4;13.6.4 Fuzzy Arithmetic;499
17.7;References;504
18;14 Advanced Methods in Uncertainty Management;505
18.1;14.1 Uncertainty Analysis with Correlated Basic Events;505
18.1.1;14.1.1 Dependency: Common Cause Failures versus Correlated Epistemic Parameters;506
18.1.2;14.1.2 Methodology for PSA Based on Monte Carlo Simulation with Nataf Transformation;508
18.1.3;14.1.3 Case Study;511
18.1.3.1;14.1.3.1 Case A: Effect of Correlation Alone: No CCF Modeled in Fault Tree;512
18.1.3.2;14.1.3.2 Case B: Effect of Correlation Combined with CCF Modeling;513
18.2;14.2 Uncertainty Importance Measures;518
18.2.1;14.2.1 Probabilistic Approach to Ranking Uncertain Parameters in System Reliability Models;519
18.2.1.1;14.2.1.1 Correlation Coefficient Method;519
18.2.1.2;14.2.1.2 Variance Based Method;520
18.2.2;14.2.2 Method Based on Fuzzy Set Theory;520
18.2.3;14.2.3 Application to a Practical System;523
18.3;14.3 Treatment of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties;526
18.3.1;14.3.1 Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainty in Reliability Calculations;527
18.3.2;14.3.2 Need to Separate Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainties;528
18.3.3;14.3.3 Methodology for Uncertainty Analysis in Reliability Assessment Based on Monte Carlo Simulation;529
18.3.3.1;14.3.3.1 Methodology;530
18.4;14.4 Dempster-Shafer Theory;533
18.4.1;14.4.1 Belief and Plausibility Function of Real Numbers;536
18.4.2;14.4.2 Dempster's Rule of Combination;537
18.4.3;14.4.3 Sampling Technique for the Evidence Theory;538
18.5;14.5 Probability Bounds Approach;541
18.5.1;14.5.1 Computing with Probability Bounds;542
18.5.2;14.5.2 Two-Phase Monte Carlo Simulation;547
18.5.3;14.5.3 Uncertainty Propagation Considering Correlation Between Variables;552
18.6;14.6 Case Study to Compare Uncertainty Analysis Methods;553
18.6.1;14.6.1 Availability Assessment of MCPS Using Fault Tree Analysis;554
18.6.2;14.6.2 Uncertainty Propagation in MCPS with Different Methods;555
18.6.2.1;14.6.2.1 Interval Analysis;555
18.6.2.2;14.6.2.2 Fuzzy Arithmetic;555
18.6.2.3;14.6.2.3 Monte Carlo Simulation;557
18.6.2.4;14.6.2.4 Dempster-Shafer Theory;558
18.6.2.5;14.6.2.5 Probability Bounds Analysis;559
18.6.3;14.6.3 Observations from Case Study;561
18.7;References;563
19;Appendix;567
20;Index;579
