de Rocquigny / Devictor / Tarantola Uncertainty in Industrial Practice

A Guide to Quantitative Uncertainty Management
1. Auflage 2008
ISBN: 978-0-470-77074-0
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, 364 Seiten, E-Book

Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challengeto ensure improved design, robust operation, accountableperformance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leadingEuropean network of experts representing a cross section ofindustries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide areference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in anytype of industry. It is concerned with the quantification ofuncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge aboutthe system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-makingprocesses whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approachpresented can be applied to a range of different business contexts,from research or early design through to certification orin-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offsbetween literature-referenced methodologies and the simplifiedapproaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time orbudget limitations of technical decision-makers.
Uncertainty in Industrial Practice:
* Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in thenuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineeringindustries set in a common methodological framework.
* Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in ageneric and prioritized perspective.
* Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encounteredaccording to the level of complexity, information available andregulatory and financial constraints.
* Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagationand sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical andnumerical methods.
* Reviews recent standards, references and available software,providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts ina wide variety of industries.
This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitativeuncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed atpractitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academicswishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.

Autoren/Hrsg.

de Rocquigny, Etienne

Devictor, Nicolas

Tarantola, Stefano

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface.
Contributors and Acknowledgements.
Introduction.
Notation - Acronyms and abbreviations.
Part I: Common Methodological Framework.
1. Introducing the common methodological framework.
2. Positing of the case studies.
Part II: Case Studies.
3. CO2 emissions: estimating uncertainties inpractice for power plants.
4. Hydrocarbon exploration: decision-support through uncertaintytreatment.
5. Determination of the risk due to personal electronic devices(PEDs) carried out on radio-navigation systems aboard aircraft.
6. Safety assessment of a radioactive high-level wasterepository - comparison of dose and peak dose.
7. A cash flow statistical model for airframe accessorymaintenance contracts.
8. Uncertainty and reliability study of a creep law to assessthe fuel cladding behaviour of PWR spent fuel assemblies duringinterim dry storage.
9. Radiological protection and maintenance.
10. Partial safety factors to deal with uncertainties in slopestability of river dykes.
11. Probabilistic assessment of fatigue life.
12. Reliability modelling in early design stages using theDempster-Shafer theory of Evidence.
Part III: Methodological Review and Recommendations.
13. What does uncertainty management mean in an industrialcontext?
14. Uncertainty settings and natures uncertainty.
15. Overall approach.
16. Uncertainty modelling methods.
17. Uncertainty propagation methods.
18. Sensitivity analysis methods.
19. Presentation in a deterministic format.
20. Recommendations the overall process in practice.
Conclusion.
Appendices.
Appendix A. A selection of codes and standards.
Appendix B. A selection of tools and websites.
Appendix C. Towards non-probabilistic settings: promises andindustrial challenges.
Index.