Change and Continuity in the 2012 and 2014 Elections

1. Auflage 2015
ISBN: 978-1-5063-0587-5
Verlag: CQ PR

Buch, Englisch, 488 Seiten, Format (B × H): 152 mm x 226 mm, Gewicht: 658 g

Since its first edition in 1982, Change and Continuity has been known for offering the best analysis and explanation of voting behaviour in recent elections and setting those results in the context of larger trends and patterns in elections studies. Year after year, the top-notch author team meticulously and accessibly explains and displays the National Election Studies data and analyzes its impact while making use of the most recent scholarship. This edition covers the 2012 presidential and congressional elections and includes an all-new chapter on the 2014 mid-term election. It examines the social forces, party loyalties, and prominent issues that affected voting behaviour, and offers conclusions about what the results mean for the future of American politics.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Abramson, Paul R.

Aldrich, John

Gomez, Brad T.

Rohde, David

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Politische Kultur Politische Propaganda & Kampagnen, Politik & Medien
• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Politische Systeme Wahlen und Volksabstimmungen

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Chapter 1: The Nomination Struggle
Who Ran
The Rules of the Nomination System
The Dynamics of Multicandidate Campaigns
Chapter 2: The General Election Campaign
The Strategic Context and Candidates’ Choices
Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves
From the Conventions to the Debates
The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout
Did the Campaign Make a Difference?
Chapter 3: The Election Results
The Election Rules
The Pattern of Results
State-by-State Results
Electoral Change in the Postwar South
The Electoral Vote Balance
Chapter 4: Who Voted?
Voter Turnout, 1789–1916
Voter Turnout, 1920–2012
Voter Turnout among Social Groups
Changes in Turnout after 1960
Election-Specific Factors
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter?
Chapter 5: Social Forces and the Vote
How Social Groups Voted in 2012
How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down
Chapter 6: Candidates, Issues, and the Vote
Attitudes toward the Candidates
Prospective Evaluations
Issue Positions and Perceptions
Issue Voting Criteria
Apparent Issue Voting in 2012
Conclusion
Chapter 7: Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice
What Is Retrospective Voting?
Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent
Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent
Evaluations of the Incumbent
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations
Conclusion
Chapter 8: Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote
Party Identification: The Original View
Party Identification: An Alternative View
Party Identification in the Electorate
Hispanic Partisanship in 2008 and 2012
Party Identification and the Vote
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations
Conclusion
Chapter 9: Candidates and Outcomes in 2012
Election Outcomes in 2012
Candidates’ Resources and Election Outcomes
The 2012 Elections: The Impact on Congress
The 2014 Elections and Beyond
Chapter 10: The Congressional Electorate in 2012
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote
Issues and the Congressional Vote
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote
The Congressional Vote as Referendum
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote
Conclusion
Chapter 11: The 2014 Congressional Elections
The Pattern of Outcomes
Assessing Victory and Explaining the Results
National and Local Influences in Congressional Elections
The 2014 Elections: The Impact on Congress
The 2016 Elections and Beyond
Chapter 12: The 2012 and 2014 Elections and the Future of American Politics
Are Midterm Elections Predictive?
Prospects for the Democrats
Prospects for the Republicans
Chapter 13: The Dynamics of American Elections
The Great Continuities: The Electoral System and the Party System
The Great Change: Depolarization and the Return of Partisan Polarization
Change and Continuity in Turnout
Continuities in Electoral Partisanship
Changes in the Partisan Electorate
Change and Continuity in the U.S. Congress

Über Autor(innen)

Gomez, Brad T.
Brad T. Gomez is associate professor of political science at Florida State University. His research interests focus on voting behavior and public opinion with a particular interest in how citizens attribute responsibility for socio-political events. His published work appears in the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, and other journals and edited volumes.

Aldrich, John
John H. Aldrich is Pfizer-Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University. He is author of Why Parties: A Second Look (2011), coeditor of Positive Changes in Political Science (2007), and author of Why Parties (1995) and Before the Convention (1980). He is a past president of both the Southern Political Science Association and the Midwest Political Science Association and is serving as president of the American Political Science Association. In 2001 he was elected a fellow in the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Abramson, Paul R.
Paul R. Abramson is professor of political science at Michigan State University. He is coauthor of ValueChange in Global Perspective (1995) and author of Political Attitudes in America (1983), The Political Socialization of Black Americans (1977), and Generational Change in American Politics (1975).

Rohde, David
David W. Rohde is Ernestine Friedl Professor of Political Science and director of the Political Institutions and Public Choice Program at Duke University. He is coeditor of Why Not Parties? (2008), author of Parties and Leaders in the Postreform House (1991), coeditor of Home Style and Washington Work (1989), and coauthor of Supreme Court Decision Making (1976).