Bijak Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

2011
ISBN: 978-90-481-8897-0
Verlag: Springer Netherland
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, Band 24, 318 Seiten, eBook

Reihe: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation.

In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Zielgruppe

Research

Autoren/Hrsg.

Bijak, Jakub

Weitere Mitwirkende

Wisniowski, Arkadiusz

Inhaltsverzeichnis

PART I. INTRODUCTION – 1. Introduction and background – 2. Preliminaries – PART II. EXPLAINING AND FORECASTING MIGRATION – 3. Explaining migration: brief overview of selected theories – 4. Forecasting migration: selected models and methods – PART III. EXAMPLES OF BAYESIAN MIGRATION PREDICTIONS – 5. Bayesian model selection and forecast averaging – 6. Bayesian VAR modelling ‘from general to specific’ – 7. Selected approaches to discontinuities in trends – 8. Evaluation of presented forecasts of European migration – 9. Bayesian computing in practice (Contributed by Arkadiusz Wisniowski) – PART IV. PERSPECTIVES OF FORECAST MAKERS AND USERS – 10. Extensions and limitations of migration forecasts – 11. Dealing with uncertain forecasts: A policy perspective – PART V. CONCLUSION – 12. Summary and conclusion: beyond migration forecasting – Acknowledgements – References – Subject Index – Index of Names – ANNEX A. Data sources and the preparatory work – ANNEX B. WinBUGS code used in the presented Bayesian forecasts – ANNEX C. Bayesian forecasts of selected migration flows in Europe.