Henderson-Sellers / McGuffie The Future of the World's Climate

2. Auflage 2011
ISBN: 978-0-12-386957-9
Verlag: Elsevier Science & Techn.
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: 6 - ePub Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, 660 Seiten

At a time of so much politicized debate over the phenomenon of global warming, the second edition of The Future of the World's Climate places the discussion in a broader geological, paleo-climatic, and astronomical context. This book is a resource based on reviews of current climate science and supported by sound, accurate data and projections made possible by technological advances in climate modeling. Crucially, this title examines in detail a wide variety of aspects, including human factors like land use, expanding urban climates, and governmental efforts at mitigation, such as the Kyoto Protocol. It also examines large-scale, long-term changes in oceans, glaciers, and atmospheric composition, including tropospheric ozone and aerosols. Weather extremes are addressed, as well as the impact of catastrophic events such as massive volcanism and meteorite impacts. Readers will find a complete picture of the Earth's future climate, delivered by authors drawn from all over the world and from the highest regarded peer-reviewed groups; most are also contributors to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Assessment Reports. - Winner of the 2012 ALSI Choice Award from Atmospheric Science Librarians International - Each chapter has undergone major revisions and new content has been added throughout - More than 200 tables, diagrams, illustrations, and photographs - A cross-disciplinary resource encompassing the geosciences, life science, social science, and engineering

Autoren/Hrsg.

Henderson-Sellers, Ann

Mcguffie, Kendal

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1;The Future of the World's Climate;4
2;Copyright;5
3;Dedication;6
4;Contents;8
5;Foreword;16
6;Preface;18
7;Abbreviations & Acronyms;20
8;Stephen H. Schneider: In Memoriam;26
9;Introduction-Future Climate;28
10;Chapter 1 - Seeing Further: The Futurology of Climate;30
10.1;1.1 - THE FUTURE OF OUR CLIMATE: INTRODUCTION AND OUTLINE;30
10.2;1.2 - GLOBAL WARMING: CLIMATE’S `ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM’;32
10.3;1.3 - THE COMPLEXITY OF THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD’S CLIMATE;38
10.4;1.4 - CLIMATE FUTURE OF THE COORONG: COMMUNICATING FROM GLOBAL `GROUND ZERO';43
10.5;1.5 - FUTUROLOGY OF CLIMATE;49
10.6;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;52
11;Section I - The Anthropocene;54
11.1;Chapter 2 - People, Policy and Politics in Future Climates;56
11.1.1;2.1 - INTRODUCTION: HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND PARADIGM CHANGE;56
11.1.2;2.2 - THE CHALLENGES OF GOVERNANCE FOR MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE;58
11.1.3;2.3 - A GOVERNANCE APPROACH TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE;58
11.1.4;2.4 - SCIENCE AND POLITICS IN THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE REGIME;61
11.1.5;2.5 - THE ROLE OF THE UNFCCC AND KYOTO PROTOCOL;65
11.1.6;2.6 - TOP-DOWN ACTIONS STEMMING FROM INSIDE AND OUTSIDE UNFCCC/KYOTO;67
11.1.7;2.7 - BOTTOM-UP APPROACHES: CIVIL SOCIETY PARTICIPATION AND INFLUENCE;70
11.1.8;2.8 - PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE;71
11.1.9;2.9 - FUTURE UNKNOWNS: LIVING ON A WARMER EARTH?;72
11.2;Chapter 3 - Urban Climates and Global Climate Change;74
11.2.1;3.1 - INTRODUCTION: LIVING IN CITIES;74
11.2.2;3.2 - LOCAL AND REGIONAL URBAN CLIMATES: THE BIOPHYSICAL BASIS;77
11.2.3;3.3 - CITIES AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE;94
11.2.4;3.4 - CURRENT STATE-OF-THE-ART IN SIMULATING URBAN CLIMATES;99
11.2.5;3.5 - CITIES AND THE FUTURE CLIMATE;102
11.3;Chapter 4 - Human Effects on Climate Through Land-Use-Induced Land-Cover Change;104
11.3.1;4.1 - INTRODUCTION: LAND CHANGE AND CLIMATE;104
11.3.2;4.2 - THE SCALE OF HUMAN MODIFICATION;105
11.3.3;4.3 - MECHANISMS/PROCESSES THROUGH WHICH LULCC AFFECTS CLIMATE;107
11.3.4;4.4 - LINKS BETWEEN LULCC AND CLIMATE;112
11.3.5;4.5 - LAND USE AND UNDERSTANDING OUR FUTURE CLIMATE;119
12;Section II - Time and Tide;124
12.1;Chapter 5 - Fast and Slow Feedbacks in Future Climates;126
12.1.1;5.1 - INTRODUCTION: THE SENSITIVE CLIMATE;127
12.1.2;5.2 - FAST-FEEDBACK CLIMATE SENSITIVITY;128
12.1.3;5.3 - SLOW FEEDBACK PROCESSES RELATED TO THE CARBON CYCLE;141
12.1.4;5.4 - COUPLED CLIMATE-CARBON CYCLE MODEL RESULTS AND LINEAR FEEDBACK ANALYSIS;154
12.1.5;5.5 - OTHER SLOW AND LESS-CONSIDERED FEEDBACKS;164
12.1.6;5.6 - CLIMATE FEEDBACKS AND THE FUTURE CLIMATE;166
12.1.7;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;166
12.2;Chapter 6 - Variability and Change in the Ocean;168
12.2.1;6.1 - INTRODUCTION: CLIMATE VARIABILITY;168
12.2.2;6.2 - OBSERVED OCEAN VARIABILITY AND CHANGE;169
12.2.3;6.3 - PROJECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE;183
12.2.4;6.4 - OCEAN BIOGEOCHEMICAL FEEDBACKS;187
12.2.5;6.5 - OCEANIC VARIABILITY AND CHANGE;190
12.2.6;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;192
12.3;Chapter 7 - Climatic Variability on Decadal to Century Timescales;194
12.3.1;7.1 - INTRODUCTION: OCEANS AND FUTURE CLIMATE;194
12.3.2;7.2 - TROPICAL DECADAL VARIABILITY;198
12.3.3;7.3 - DESCRIPTION OF EXTRA-TROPICAL DECADAL VARIABILITY;200
12.3.4;7.4 - EVIDENCE OF CENTENNIAL VARIABILITY;205
12.3.5;7.5 - THE STOCHASTIC CLIMATE MODEL: THE NULL HYPOTHESIS FOR CLIMATE VARIABILITY;208
12.3.6;7.6 - SUMMARY: FUTURE UNKNOWNS;221
12.4;Chapter 8 - The Future of the World's Glaciers;224
12.4.1;8.1 - INTRODUCTION: CLIMATE AND THE CRYOSPHERE;224
12.4.2;8.2 - ELEMENTS;226
12.4.3;8.3 - GLACIER MASS BALANCE;230
12.4.4;8.4 - MODELLING TOOLS;232
12.4.5;8.5 - RECENT AND PRESENT STATES OF THE WORLD’S GLACIERS;235
12.4.6;8.6 - THE OUTLOOK FOR GLACIERS;240
12.4.7;8.7 - REFLECTIONS: GLACIERS AND THE FUTURE CLIMATE;247
12.4.8;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;249
12.5;Chapter 9 - Future Regional Climates;250
12.5.1;9.1 - INTRODUCTION: CLOSE-UP OF CLIMATE CHANGE;250
12.5.2;9.2 - REGIONAL-SCALE CLIMATE PHENOMENA;251
12.5.3;9.3 - DOWNSCALING GLOBAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS;259
12.5.4;9.4 - SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY;264
12.5.5;9.5 - ACHIEVING REGIONAL CLIMATE PREDICTIONS;270
12.5.6;9.6 - REGIONALIZING FUTURE CLIMATE;277
13;Section III - Looking Forward;278
13.1;Chapter 10 - Climate and Weather Extremes: Observations, Modelling, and Projections;280
13.1.1;10.1 - INTRODUCTION: EXTREMES OF CLIMATE;280
13.1.2;10.2 - METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES REGARDING THE ANALYSIS OF EXTREMES;287
13.1.3;10.3 - OBSERVED CHANGES IN EXTREMES;295
13.1.4;10.4 - CLIMATE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE EXTREMES;305
13.1.5;10.5 - HOW WELL DO CLIMATE MODELS SIMULATE EXTREMES?;307
13.1.6;10.6 - THE FUTURE;308
13.1.7;10.7 - EXTREMES IN OUR FUTURE CLIMATE;315
13.2;Chapter 11 - Interaction Between Future Climate and Terrestrial Carbon and Nitrogen;316
13.2.1;11.1 - INTRODUCTION: CYCLING TERRESTRIAL NUTRIENTS;316
13.2.2;11.2 - CLIMATE SYSTEM FEEDBACKS;317
13.2.3;11.3 - BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESSES;319
13.2.4;11.4 - OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS;324
13.2.5;11.5 - MODELLING NITROGEN-CARBON INTERACTIONS;330
13.2.6;11.6 - CONSEQUENCES OF LAND-USE AND LAND-COVER CHANGE FOR CARBON AND NITROGEN CYCLES;334
13.2.7;11.7 - VEGETATION AND THE FUTURE CLIMATE;335
13.2.8;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;335
13.3;Chapter 12 - Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions;336
13.3.1;12.1 - INTRODUCTION;337
13.3.2;12.2 - KEY INTERACTIONS IN THE CLIMATE-CHEMISTRY SYSTEM;339
13.3.3;12.3 - TRENDS IN EMISSIONS OF CHEMICAL SPECIES AND IN CHEMICALLY ACTIVE GREENHOUSE COMPOUNDS;344
13.3.4;12.4 - DISTRIBUTION AND CHANGES OF CHEMICAL ACTIVE GREENHOUSE GASES AND THEIR PRECURSORS;349
13.3.5;12.5 - CLIMATE IMPACT FROM EMISSION CHANGES;364
13.3.6;12.6 - CONTRIBUTIONS TO TROPOSPHERIC CHANGES FROM THE TRANSPORT SECTOR AND FOR DIFFERENT REGIONS;372
13.3.7;12.7 - IMPACT ON TROPOSPHERIC COMPOSITION FROM CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGES IN STRATOSPHERIC COMPOSITION;381
13.3.8;12.8 - CROSS CUTTING ISSUES (POLICY RELATIONS, INTEGRATION);385
13.3.9;12.9 - SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS;390
13.3.10;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;392
13.4;Chapter 13 - Climate-Chemistry Interaction: Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols;394
13.4.1;13.1 - ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION, CHEMISTRY, AND CLIMATE;394
13.4.2;13.2 - CLIMATICALLY-IMPORTANT CHEMICAL COMPOUNDS;397
13.4.3;13.3 - CLIMATE-CHEMISTRY INTERACTION OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE;407
13.4.4;13.4 - CLIMATE-CHEMISTRY INTERACTION OF TROPOSPHERIC SULFATE AEROSOLS;414
13.4.5;13.5 - MITIGATION POLICIES FOR CLIMATE AND AIR QUALITY;419
13.4.6;13.6 - FUTURE STUDY OF CLIMATE-CHEMISTRY INTERACTION;424
13.4.7;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;426
14;Section IV - Learning Lessons;428
14.1;Chapter 14 - Records from the Past, Lessons for the Future: What the Palaeorecord Implies about Mechanisms of Global Change;430
14.1.1;14.1 - TIMESCALES OF CLIMATE CHANGE, THEIR CAUSATION, AND DETECTION;430
14.1.2;14.2 - REGIONAL RESPONSES TO MILLENNIAL-SCALE FORCING;442
14.1.3;14.3 - RAPID CLIMATE CHANGES;451
14.1.4;14.4 - BIOSPHERE FEEDBACKS;457
14.1.5;14.5 - LESSONS FROM THE PAST FOR THE STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGES;459
14.1.6;14.6 - LESSONS FROM THE PAST FOR FUTURE CLIMATES;462
14.1.7;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;463
14.2;Chapter 15 - Modelling the Past and Future Interglacials in Response to Astronomical and Greenhouse Gas Forcing;464
14.2.1;15.1 - INTRODUCTION: INTERGLACIALS AND WARM CLIMATE;464
14.2.2;15.2 - MODEL AND EXPERIMENTS USED FOR SIMULATING THE LAST NINE INTERGLACIALS;466
14.2.3;15.3 - PRECESSION AND OBLIQUITY DURING THE INTERGLACIALS;469
14.2.4;15.4 - LATITUDINAL AND SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF INSOLATION;470
14.2.5;15.5 - MODELLING THE GHG AND INSOLATION CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PRE- AND POST-MBE INTERGLACIALS;470
14.2.6;15.6 - GHG AND INSOLATION CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE INDIVIDUAL INTERGLACIAL CLIMATES;474
14.2.7;15.7 - FUTURE OF OUR INTERGLACIAL;485
14.2.8;15.8 - PROBING FUTURE ASTRO-CLIMATES;488
14.2.9;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;489
14.3;Chapter 16 - Catastrophe: Extraterrestrial Impacts, Massive Volcanism, and the Biosphere;490
14.3.1;16.1 - INTRODUCTION: WHAT IS A CLIMATE CATASTROPHE?;490
14.3.2;16.2 - MASSIVE VOLCANISM: CASE STUDY OF THE TRIASSIC-JURASSIC (TR-J) EVENT;491
14.3.3;16.3 - EXTRATERRESTRIAL IMPACTS: CASE STUDY OF THE END-CRETACEOUS EVENTS;499
14.3.4;16.4 - THE POTENTIAL OF THE K-PG IMPACT TO CAUSE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE;503
14.3.5;16.5 - COMPARISON OF THE TR-J AND K-PG EVENTS;510
14.3.6;16.6 -`DEEP-TIME' CONTEXT FOR ANTHROPOGENIC ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATE CHANGE;511
14.3.7;16.7 - FUTURE CLIMATE CATASTROPHES;512
14.3.8;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;512
15;Section V - Understanding the Unknowns;514
15.1;Chapter 17 - Future Climate Surprises;516
15.1.1;17.1 - INTRODUCTION: PROBING FUTURE CLIMATES;516
15.1.2;17.2 - DEFINING CLIMATE SURPRISES;517
15.1.3;17.3 - MELTING OF LARGE MASSES OF ICE;520
15.1.4;17.4 - CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CIRCULATION;522
15.1.5;17.5 - LOSS OF BIOMES;524
15.1.6;17.6 - COPING WITH CLIMATE SURPRISES;525
15.1.7;17.7 - FUTURE CLIMATE: SURPRISES, RESPONSES, AND RECOVERY STRATEGIES;532
15.1.8;17.8 - CONCLUSION: GAPS IN KNOWLEDGE;534
15.1.9;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;534
15.2;Chapter 18 - Future Climate: One Vital Component of Trans-disciplinary Earth System Science;536
15.2.1;18.1 - GAIA AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE;536
15.2.2;18.2 - HUMANS IN THE EARTH SYSTEM;547
15.2.3;18.3 - TRANS-DISCIPLINARY EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE;552
15.2.4;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS;556
16;Bibliography;558
17;Index;650
18;Editors' Biographies;666
19;Biographies;668