Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures: Eight Long-Range Scenarios

Erscheinungsjahr 2015
ISBN: 978-0-262-02889-9
Verlag: MIT PR

Buch, Englisch, 248 Seiten, Format (B × H): 160 mm x 234 mm, Gewicht: 454 g

Reihe: Mit Press

Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The “Regional Mercantilism” scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Hillebrand, Evan

Closson, Stacy

Fachgebiete

• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Volkswirtschaftslehre Internationale Wirtschaft
• Interdisziplinäres Wissenschaften Wissenschaften Interdisziplinär Futurologie (Interdisziplinär)
• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Internationale Beziehungen Geopolitik

Über Autor(innen)

Hillebrand, Evan
Evan Hillebrand is Professor of International Economics the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce. He was Staff Economist in the Directorate of Intelligence at the Central Intelligence Agency from 1972 to 2004.

Closson, Stacy
Stacy Closson is Assistant Professor at the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce. From 1998 to 2002, she worked in the Office of Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the U.S. Defense Department.

Evan Hillebrand is Professor of International Economics the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce. He was Staff Economist in the Directorate of Intelligence at the Central Intelligence Agency from 1972 to 2004. Stacy Closson is Assistant Professor at the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce. From 1998 to 2002, she worked in the Office of Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the U.S. Defense Department.