Michael / Spear Modelling Parasite Transmission and Control

2010
ISBN: 978-1-4419-6064-1
Verlag: Springer US
Format: PDF
Kopierschutz: 1 - PDF Watermark

E-Book, Englisch, Band 673, 212 Seiten, eBook

Reihe: Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology

Modelling parasite transmission has made enormous strides since the seminal models of Ross for describing malaria transmission developed during the early 1900s. McDonald’s use of the early malaria models to show that killing adult mosquitoes would be particularly effective in reducing infection transmission was a major advance in demonstrating the usefulness of theoretical analysis and population dynamics modelling in particular for guiding parasite control programmes, and since then parasite transmission models have also been used to guide the onchocerciasis control programme in Africa, as well as for investigating best strategies for controlling a host of other parasites, including tuberculosis, trachoma and lately helminth infections, such as schistosomiasis and filariasis. The importance of this work is highlighted by greater understanding of threshold phenomena in transmission dynamics leading to the concept that natural “breakpoints” occur below which parasite systems will go extinct to the roles that worm mating behaviour and infection aggregation can play in both helminth transmission and control. The emerging trend from this work is thus the increasing use of understanding parasite transmission dynamics via the construction and analysis of mathematical models for use in guiding the development of informed parasite control strategies, so much so that this twin objective, viz improving understanding of parasite transmission dynamics and applying models to guide parasite control, has almost become a goal of most recent work in parasite transmission modelling.
We have organized the material in the book into two major sections, the first presenting the state of the art in models aimed at capturing complex or detailed aspects of transmission dynamics beginning with a review of the evolution of modelling malaria transmission.  Part II of the book serves to highlight the current use of transmission models in the planning, monitoring and evaluation of parasite control programmes.

Zielgruppe

Research

Autoren/Hrsg.

Michael, Edwin

Spear, Robert C.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Part 1. Modelling Parasite Transmission
1. Progress in Modelling Malaria Transmission
David L. Smith and Nick Ruktanonchai
Modelling Malaria Transmission, a Historical Introduction
Complexity, Parsimony and Robust Descriptions of Transmission
Transmission Intensity and Its Estimations
Preferential Biting and Uneven Exposure
Immunity and the Infectious Reservoir
Malaria Transmission in Real Populations
Conclusion
2. Vector Transmission Heterogeneity and the Populat ion Dynamics and Control of Lymphatic Filariasis
Edwin Michael and Manoj Gambhir
Abstract
Introduction
Lymphatic Filariasis Disease and Parasite Life Cycle
Mosquito Vectors of Lymphatic Filariasis
Vector-Parasite Infection Relationships
Quantifying the Mf-L3 Functional Response in Vector Populations
Derivation of Vector-Specific Models of Lymphatic Filariasis Transmission
Impact of Vector-Specific Infection Processes on Parasite System Stability,
Persistence and Extinction
Impact of Vector-Specific Infection Processes on Age Patterns of Infection
The Impact of Vector Genus on the Dynamics of Filariasis Control
Conclusion
3. Modelling Multi?Species Parasite Transmission
Andrea Pugliese
Abstract
Introduction
Structure and Parameters of Models
The Model without Direct Interactions
Competition among Parasites
Normal Approximations
Competition and Host Heterogeneity
Conclusion
4. Metap opulat ion Models in Tick?Borne Disease Transmission Modelling
Holly Gaff and Elsa Schaefer
Abstract
Introduction
Methods
Variations within Patches
Patch Connectivity
The Surrounding Environment
Boundary Effects
Conclusion
5. Modelling Stochastic Transmission Processes in Helminth Infections
Stephen J. Cornell
Abstract
Introduction
Infection in a Single Host
Infection among Multiple Hosts
Conclusion
6. Modelling Environmenta lly?Mediat ed Infectious Diseases of Humans: Transmission Dynamics of Schistosomiasis in China
Justin Remais
Abstract
Introduction
Modelling Schistosome Transmission
Model Parameters
EnvironmentalData
Model Dynamics
Modelling Spatial Connectivity
Extending the Modelling Framework
Conclusion
Part 2. Applicat ion of Models to Parasite Control
7. Parameter Estimat ion and Site?Specific Calibrat ion of Disease Transmission Models
Robert C. Spear and A. Hubbard
Abstract
Introduction
Local Data
A Calibration Example
The Posterior Parameter Space
Bayesian Melding
Conclusion
8. Modelling Malaria Populat ion Structure and Its Implicat ions for Control
Caroline O. Buckee and Sunetra Gupta
Abstract
Introduction
Adding Realism to the Basic Framework of the Ross?MacDonald Models
Modelling the Effects of Parasite Population Structure
Conclusion
9. Mat hemat ical Modelling of the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis
Peter J. White and Geoff P. Garnett
Abstract
Introduction
TB Natural History
Mathematical Models of TB Transmission Dynamics
Modelling the Natural History of TB
Vaccination
Population Age Structure
Interactions with HIV
Contact Patterns
The Basic and Effective Reproductive Numbers of TB
Modelling Strains of TB
Host Genetic Factors and Within?Host Modelling
TB?Control Strategies
Conclusion
10. Modelling Trachoma for Control Programes
Manoj Gambhir, María?Gloria Basáñez, Isobel M. Blake and Nicholas C. Grassly
Abstract
Introduction
Antibiotic?Based Control Programmes
Methods
Results
Conclusion
11. Transmission Models and Management of Lymphat ic Filariasis Eliminat ion
Edwin Michael and Manoj Gambhir
Abstract
Introduction
Transmission Models and Decisions in Parasite Management
Models and Quantifying Intervention Endpoint Targets
Models and Design of Optimal Filariasis Intervention Strategies

Conclusion
12. Disease Transmission Models for Public Health Decision?Making: Designing Intervention Strat egies for Schistosoma japonicum
Edmund Y.W. Seto and Elizabeth J. Carlton
Abstract
Introduction
Model Framework
New Model Developments: Incorporating Population Heterogeneity and Connectivity
Conclusion
Epilogue
13. Modelling Climat e Change and Malaria

Über Autor(innen)

EDWIN MICHAEL is currently a Senior Lecturer in infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London, UK, with a research focus on modelling the transmission and control of tropical parasitic and infectious diseases. His main interest lies in developing a system dynamics approach to gaining a better understanding of parasite transmission, immunology, genetics and economics, in order to develop integrated mathematical models of pathogen transmission as a tool for aiding the rational design, monitoring and evaluation of large-scale intervention programmes, ranging from vector control, chemotherapy to vaccinations. He has worked extensively in Africa (primarily East Africa), India, Vietnam and Papua New Guinea, particularly over the past decade (in partnership with international (WHO, World Bank) and national institutions), in translating research on disease population biology, spatial dynamics and public health decision-making for developing reliable model-based spatial decision support tools to aid the design, surveillance and evaluation of ecologically resilient and sustainable intervention programmes against parasitic diseases of major public health importance in developing countries. His current interest is in extending this work to developing integrated ecological, economic and social systems approaches for investigating interactions between climate change, ecosystem dynamics and the socio-ecology of disease transmission in vulnerable communities.

ROBERT C. SPEAR is an engineer by training, having received the BS and MS degrees in Engineering Science and Mechanical Engineering, respectively, from the University of California at Berkeley and the PhD degree in Control Engineering from Cambridge University in 1968. After several years in the aerospace industry his interests turned to environmental issues and he returned to Berkeley in 1970 to take up a post-doctoral position in this field in the School of Public Health. He was appointed to a faculty position in 1971 and is now Professor of the Graduate School at Berkeley. His research interests focus on the assessment and quantification of human exposures to toxic and hazardous agents in the environment. His early work concerned the exposure of agricultural workers to pesticides. In more recent years his work has concerned applications of mathematical and statistical techniques in the assessment and control of exposures to both chemical and biological agents. For the past 15 years his work has been increasingly focused on determinants of the prevalence and control of the parasitic disease schistosomiasis in the mountainous regions of Sichuan Province in southwestern China.