Boreal Forests Under Global Warming

Empirical Simulation Predictive Modeling
1. Auflage 2026
ISBN: 978-1-041-22595-9
Verlag: Taylor & Francis Ltd

Buch, Englisch, 288 Seiten, Format (B × H): 156 mm x 234 mm

This groundbreaking book presents an innovative predictive concept in geographical ecology that reveals local and regional mechanisms of global environmental changes. This work provides environmental scientists with formalized tools for analysis and prediction that can be applied to real-world ecological challenges. Ecological modeling through the application of discrete mathematics for processing extensive empirical data from field and laboratory landscape studies.

Empirical simulation of forecasts is implemented as a reproduction of predicted scenarios of biogeocoenotic systems according to the laws of their basic spatial organization, with the fundamental properties of ergodicity of the natural environment. The methodology presented transforms geographical ecology into a more precise and quantifiable discipline capable of addressing complex environmental dynamics.

This monograph is primarily intended for specialists in ecological modeling and forecasting, and ecological planning in forestry. Additionally, as it draws from the Russian school of landscape science—an approach not widely familiar to many Western European and American researchers—the book offers valuable theoretical and methodological insights for both landscape scientists and ecologists across various specializations. Researchers seeking innovative approaches to understanding environmental change will find this work particularly valuable for its unique perspective and practical applications.

Zielgruppe

Academic, Postgraduate, and Professional Reference

Autoren/Hrsg.

Kolomyts, Erland G.

Fachgebiete

• Technische Wissenschaften Bauingenieurwesen Hochwasserschutz (Bauingenieurwesen)
• Naturwissenschaften Agrarwissenschaften Ackerbaukunde, Pflanzenbau
• Technische Wissenschaften Umwelttechnik | Umwelttechnologie Wasserversorgung, Wasseraufbereitung
• Technische Wissenschaften Bauingenieurwesen Boden- und Felsmechanik, Geotechnik
• Geowissenschaften Umweltwissenschaften Umwelttechnik
• Technische Wissenschaften Umwelttechnik | Umwelttechnologie Umwelttechnik
• Technische Wissenschaften Sonstige Technologien | Angewandte Technik Bergbau, Hüttenwesen
• Technische Wissenschaften Bauingenieurwesen Bauingenieurwesen
• Geowissenschaften Geologie Bodenkunde, Sedimentologie
• Technische Wissenschaften Bauingenieurwesen Dämme, Wasserspeicher und Talsperren (Bauingenieurwesen)

Inhaltsverzeichnis

FOREWORD

INTRODUCTION
Chapter 1. EMPIRICAL-SIMULATION PREDICTEV MODELING
IN THE GEOGRAPHICAL ECOLOGY (Framework Concept)
1.1. Introductory Provisions
1.2. Strategy of scientific and methodological search
1.3. Originality of the concept
1.4. The novelty of given scientific search
1.5. Numerical methods of landscape-ecological forecasts

Chapter 2. LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL STRATEGY FOR GROUND GEOECOLOGICAL MONITORING OF THE FORESTS
2.1. Regional ecology and problem of global changes
2.2. Current state of the concept of geo-ecological monitoring in

a changing climate
2.3. Bioclimatic zonality as an object of ecological-geographical

research
2.4. Zonal structure of East-European sub-continent

2.5. Some inferences
Chapter 3. BOREAL GEOGRAPHICAL ECOTONE IN THE NORTHERN EURASIA
3.1. The main provisions for the theory of geographical ecotones

3.2. Boreal ecotone of the East-European Plain as a landscape-

ecological system
3.3. The boreal ecotone as a natural “fast-flowing” model of global

change
3.4. Functioning of geo(eco-)systems as an object of the ecological

monitoring
3.5. Environmentally sustainability
3.6. Strategy of science search
3.5. Some inferences
Chapter 4. METHODS OF LOCAL AND REGIONAL LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL MODELING

4.1. Introductory remarks
4.2. General features of landscape ecological modeling

4.3. Mono-system information-statistical models

4.4. Typical schemes of binary ordination

4.5. Poly-system fuzzy-set-theoretical models

4.6. Integral parameters of mono- and poly-system organization of

natural complexes

4.7. Distinguishing of forest biogeocoenosis eco-types

4.8. Representation of calculating predictive climatic models

Chapter 5. REGIONAL AND LOCAL GEOSYSTEMS AS THE OBJECTS OF PREDICTIVE RESEARCH

5.1. Introductory notes

5.3. Ground empirical material for modeling

5.3.1. Landscape structure of the nature zones
5.3.2. Regional bioclimatic system

5.3.3. Experimental test sites
5.3.4. System of local and regional landscape coupling
5.3.5. Large-scale landscape-ecological surveys
5.4. Parameters of the biological cycle as indicators of ecosystem

sustainability

5.5. The importance of studying local geo(eco)systems for

landscape-ecological forecasts

Chapter 6. HYDRO-CLIMATIC SYSTEM OF THE VOLGA RIVER

BASIN AND ITS ENCIRCLEMENT

6.1. Chain reactions in the regional landscape-geophysical relations

6.2. Methods for calculating landscape-geophysical characteristics
6.3. Space relations of temperature and precipitation
6.4. Regional scenarios of primary bio-productivity change in the

system of background climatic fluctuations
Chapter 7. LANDSCAPE-GEOPHYSICAL FOUNDATIONS OF

ECOLOGICAL PROGNOSES

7.1. Functional ordination of forest ecosystems according to arid

climatic trend
7.1.1. Introductory remarks
7.1.2. Ergodic system of nature complexes
7.1.3. Hydro-thermal ordination of biological cycle parameters

7.1.4. Empirical simulation of climate-genic changes in the

biological cycle
7.2. Regional and local humidity factors and their significance for
ecological prognoses

7.2.1. Issues of the problem and basic materials
7.2.2. The space diversity of annual atmospheric humidity factor
7.2.3. Edaphic humidity factor and the methods of its calculation

7.2.4. Local coefficient of common humidification
7.3. Humidity factors and levels functioning of geo(eco-)system

7.4. Hydro-edaphic conditions of the critical states of forest eco-
systems

7.5. The predictive estimates od edaphic humidity changes and their
ecological effect

7.5. Some inferences
Chapter 8. PECULIARITY OF LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL FORECASTIGS

8 1. The ways of development of regional prediction concept
8.2. Landscape-ecological system as an object of predictive modeling
8.3. Ideological foundations and strategy of predictive research

Chapter 9. EMPIRICAL-SIMULATION PREDICTIVE MODELING OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
9.1. The value of empirical simulation in landscape-ecological forecasts
9.2. Statistical analysis of functional biogeocoenotic relationships
9.3. Ordination as a basis for empirical-statistical modeling
9.4. Local empirical simulation of the regional climatic trend
9.5. Polyzonality of local ecosystems as a way of reresponse to climate

change
9.6. The principle of optimality in the functioning of ecosystems
9.7. The driving forces of climate-genic successions
Chapter 10. REGIONAL LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL PROGNOSES

10.1. Analytic methods of landscape-ecological prognoses
10.1.1. Evaluate of probabilities of changes in the functional states
of ecosystems
10.1.2. Algorithm of predictive calculations
10.1.3. Calculations of the rates of ecosystem transformations
10.2. Prognoses of functional changes of plant formations

10.2.1.

Über Autor(innen)

Erland G. Kolomyts has been a scientist in Institute of Geography of Siberia and Far East, Russian Academy of Science, Irkutsk, 1960-1972, a scientist in Pacific Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Science, Vladivostok, 1972-1977, the Head of Laboratory of geo-ecology of High mountain geophysical institute, Nalychik, 1977-1986, the Head of (sub-)faculty of Physical geography in Nizhniy Novgorod pedagogical University, 1986-1990, and the Head of Laboratory of landscape ecology in Institute of ecology of the Volga River Basin of Russian Academy of Science, Togliatti, 1990. Since December 2022, he has moved to work at the Institute for Fundamental Problems of Biology of the Pushchino Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences as a leading researcher. His Honours and/or awards include: Doctor of geographical sciences,1976; Professor, 1986; Meritorious Science Worker of Russian Federation, 2003; The Grigoryev Prize laureate by Russian Academy of Science, 2015.