The Essence of Scenarios

Learning from the Shell Experience
Erscheinungsjahr 2014
ISBN: 978-90-8964-594-4
Verlag: Taylor & Francis

Buch, Englisch, 168 Seiten, Format (B × H): 156 mm x 235 mm, Gewicht: 249 g

In 1965, when quantitative planning was much in vogue, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a different way of looking into the future: scenario planning. Shell's practice has now survived for almost half a century and has had a huge influence on how businesses, governments, and other organisations think about and plan for the future. To produce this illuminating study, the authors interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with top Shell executives through the years. They identify several principles that both define the process at Shell and help explain how it has thrived for so long. For instance, Shell scenarios are stories, not predictions, and are designed to help break the habit, ingrained in most corporate planning, of assuming that the future will look much like the present.

Zielgruppe

Academic

Autoren/Hrsg.

Kupers, Roland

Wilkinson, Angela

Fachgebiete

• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Management Unternehmensführung
• Wirtschaftswissenschaften Betriebswirtschaft Management Unternehmensorganisation & Entwicklungsstrategien

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface by Peter Ho, Introduction: The ‘Gentle Art’ Sources, I A Unique Legacy, II Shell Scenarios — A History, 1965-2013, Experimentation and Emergence, 1965-1981. Moving Closer to the Business, 1982-1990, Culture Change, 1990-1999, Cheaper, Deeper Thinking, 1999-2006, New Pathways to ‘Challenging and Heard’, 2006-2013, III The Essence of the Shell Art, 1 Improving Intuition, 2 Plausible, Not Probable, 3 Striking the Balance Between Relevant and Challenging, 4 Pragmatic, Not Ideological 85 5 Realizing the Role of the Future in the Present, 6 Focused and Targeted, 7 Engaging the Client in the Process, 8 Memorable, Yet Disposable, 9 Storytelling — the Heart of Strategic Conversation, 10 The Necessity of Numbers, 11 The Creation of a Scenario Team, 12 Serving as Door-Openers and Adding Value to External Relationships, 13 Fostering a Culture of Openness and Curiosity, 14 Managing Disagreement as an Asset, 15 Providing Value within a Broader Management System, IV Looking Ahead, From ‘Seeing’ to ‘Seeding’, Not Growing Better Futures, Beyond Products to Value-Added Services, The Future of Shell Scenarios, Business Lens, Reaching Out, V Conclusion, The Evolution Continues — the Essence Remains, Epilogue: Scenario Team Leaders, Afterword, A Timeline, B Summary of Scenarios, Index.

Über Autor(innen)

Roland Kupers is an associate fellow in the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford. Angela Wilkinson, PhD (Physics), is Associate Fellow, Said Business School, University of Oxford and former Director of Foresight for the OECD. She is a recognised and respected global leading scholar and practitioner in scenario planning and foresight. She spent a decade in Shell's global scenario team.