The Science of Resilience

Complexity, Risk Modeling, and Systems
1. Auflage 2025
ISBN: 978-1-394-35492-4
Verlag: Wiley

Buch, Englisch, 224 Seiten

Strategies for improving resilience, incorporating complexity theory, risk analysis, and systems thinking with a rigorous mathematical treatment

The Science of Resilience delves into the fascinating field of resilience science, exploring how various systems, ranging from physical infrastructure to social networks, can withstand and recover from disruptions. This interdisciplinary subject combines principles from complexity theory, risk analysis, and systems thinking to understand and mitigate the impacts of events like natural disasters, cyber-attacks, and economic crises. By using mathematical models and real-world examples, the book provides practical tools and strategies for designing resilient systems that can adapt and thrive in the face of uncertainty.

Written by a highly qualified author with significant experience in the field, this book: - Covers synchronization, bottleneck analysis, epidemic modeling, social network disinformation and how to counter it, and restructuring a system to increase resilience
- Explains phase change and shows how to apply it to general complex systems
- Integrates rigorous mathematical models with real-world applications through mini case studies and hypothetical examples covering physical, economic, and social systems
- Provides tools and strategies to design resilient systems, analyze potential risks, and plain for resilience

Addressing an important gap in risk and resilience literature, this book offers valuable insights for engineering and systems design professionals, complexity science and risk analysis researchers, and graduate students in related fields, as well as anyone interested in the science of resilience.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Lewis, Ted G

Fachgebiete

• Sozialwissenschaften Politikwissenschaft Militärwesen Zivil- und Katastrophenschutz
• Naturwissenschaften Chemie Chemie Allgemein Toxikologie, Gefahrstoffe, Sicherheit in der Chemie
• Technische Wissenschaften Technik Allgemein Mess- und Automatisierungstechnik
• Technische Wissenschaften Energietechnik | Elektrotechnik Elektrotechnik

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface ix

1 Sandpiles, Long Tails, and Complex Catastrophes 1

The Many Faces of Resilience 4

Sandpile as Metaphor 6

Blocks and Springs 12

Computing Exceedance Probability 14

Two Versions of Exceedance 16

Comments 20

References 22

2 Wildfires, Self-Organization, and Phase Change 23

California Wildfires 24

Percolated Forests 27

Why Does This Occur? 30

Time Resilience 31

Herd Immunity 33

Gause’s Emergent Forest 33

Punctuated Equilibrium 37

Comments 39

References 40

3 Nuclear Disaster, Fault Trees, and the Kill Chain 41

PRA and Fault Trees 45

The Hundred-Year Flood 47

Modeling Threats 48

Modeling TMI-2 Risk 49

Minimization of Fault Tree Risk 51

Maximizing Threat – The Rational Adversary 55

Redundant TMI-2 56

Cyber Kill Chain 56

Comments 59

4 Avalanches, Complex Network, and the Day Power Went Out 61

What Happened on August 14th 62

Network Basics 64

Spectral Radius 68

Network Avalanches 72

Bottlenecks and Resilient Walks 78

Blocking Node Resilience 81

Networks That Sync 82

Comments 85

References 86

5 Surges, Overloads, and the Transformer Matrix 87

The Transformer Matrix 89

Surges and N-1 Testing 91

Surges and Overloading 95

Increasing Capacity and the Braess Paradox 97

Estimating Vulnerability, V 100

Comments 102

6 Emergence, Optimization, and the Competitive Exclusion Principle 103

Efficient Hubs 104

Optimizing Links 106

Maximizing Clusters 110

Dynamic State Space 115

Competitive Exclusion Principle is Degree-Emergence 118

Resilient Sync Networks Cooperate 120

A Theory of Heartbeat 120

Comments 123

References 124

7 Population Resilience, Biological Avalanches, and the COVID-19

Pandemic 125

Risk and Resilience 130

Epidemics as Avalanches 132

A Multi-Factor Model 132

Comments 141

References 142

8 Flashmob Avalanches, Disinformation, and Herd Mentality 143

A Digital Flashmob 145

Resilience: Applying Control Theory to Disinformation 151

Controlling Chaos 153

Comments 155

Reference 156

9 Enrichment, Extinction, and the Tragedy of the Commons 157

Too Much Money 159

Predator and Prey 161

Plausible Extinction Events 166

Resilience of Predator–Prey Systems 167

Minsky Moments 169

Comments 173

References 174

10 Resilient Cyber Security and Fault Tree Resilience 177

Correlation With Uptick in Physical Incidents 178

Detecting Malware With YARA Patterns 180

Fault Tree Resilience 181

An Industrial Control System 183

Increasing Resilience via Blocking Nodes 187

Tracing Fault Tree Paths Along Avalanches 187

Increasing Security by Investing in Vulnerability Reduction 189

Comments 190

Reference 191

11 Distributed Resilience, Restructuring, and the Crash of 2008 193

Too Connected to Fail 196

Restructuring by Node Splitting 199

Bushy versus Branchy Restructuring 200

Improving Flow Resilience 202

The Great Texas Freeze 204

Comments 206

Index 000

Über Autor(innen)

Ted G. Lewis is an author and computer scientist with expertise in applied complexity theory, homeland security, infrastructure systems, and early-stage startup strategies. He was inducted into the Oregon State University Engineering Hall of Fame in 2021. He has served in government, industry, and academia over an extensive career. He has also served as the Editor-in-Chief of several periodicals including IEEE Computer Magazine and is a member of the IEEE Computer Society Board of Governors.