Flood Hazard Mapping: Uncertainty and its Value in the Decision-making Process

1. Auflage 2018
ISBN: 978-1-138-37352-5
Verlag: Taylor & Francis Ltd

Buch, Englisch, 148 Seiten, Format (B × H): 174 mm x 246 mm, Gewicht: 454 g

Reihe: IHE Delft PhD Thesis Series

Computers are increasingly used in the simulation of natural phenomena such as floods. However, these simulations are based on numerical approximations of equations formalizing our conceptual understanding of flood flows. Thus, model results are intrinsically subject to uncertainty and the use of probabilistic approaches seems more appropriate. Uncertain, probabilistic floodplain maps are widely used in the scientific domain, but still not sufficiently exploited to support the development of flood mitigation strategies.
In this thesis the major sources of uncertainty in flood inundation models are analyzed, resulting in the generation of probabilistic floodplain maps. The utility of probabilistic model output is assessed using value of information and the prospect theory. The use of these maps to support decision making in terms of floodplain development under flood hazard threat is demonstrated.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Mukolwe, Micah Mukungu

Fachgebiete

• Technische Wissenschaften Umwelttechnik | Umwelttechnologie Umwelttechnik
• Geowissenschaften Umweltwissenschaften Umwelttechnik
• Technische Wissenschaften Umwelttechnik | Umwelttechnologie Wasserversorgung, Wasseraufbereitung
• Technische Wissenschaften Bauingenieurwesen Bauingenieurwesen

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1 Introduction
2 A review of flood inundation modelling
3 Case studies and data availability
4 Uncertainty in flood modelling
5 Flood hazard maps and damage
6 Usefulness of probabilistic flood hazard maps
7 Conclusions and recommendations

Über Autor(innen)

Micah M. Mukolwe is a trained civil engineer with interests in civil infrastructure design, implementation, project planning and management, and the effect (and mitigation) of natural hazards on floodplain receptors using hydroinformatics tools.