Samonas Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling

A Framework for Long-Term Forecasting
1. Auflage 2015
ISBN: 978-1-118-92109-8
Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
Format: EPUB
Kopierschutz: Adobe DRM (»Systemvoraussetzungen)

E-Book, Englisch, Band 1, 232 Seiten, E-Book

Reihe: Wiley Finance

Risk analysis has become critical to modern financialplanning
Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides acomplete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practicaland accessible way, helping finance professionals includeuncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thoroughcoverage of financial statement simulation models and clear,concise implementation instruction, this book guides readersstep-by-step through the entire projection plan developmentprocess. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and specialconsiderations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, anddevelop a more robust analysis process that improves financialstrategy. The companion website provides a complete operationalmodel that can be customised to develop financial projections or arange of other key financial measures, giving readers animmediately-applicable tool to facilitate effectivedecision-making.
In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need forexperienced financial modelling professionals has steadilyincreased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatilityand uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level ofunderstanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, withtechniques tailored to real-life situations.
* Develop long-term projection plans using Excel
* Use appropriate models to develop a more proactivestrategy
* Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately
* Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, MonteCarlo Simulation, and more
Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before,and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made.Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning,and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focuson uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting,Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to themechanics of modern finance.

Autoren/Hrsg.

Samonas, Michael

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Part I: Developing Corporate Finance Models
1: Introduction
1.1 What is Financial Modelling?
1.2 Defining the Inputs and the Outputs of a Simple FinancialModel
1.3 The Financial Modelling Process of More Complex Models
1.4 Excel as Tool of Modelling: Capabilities and Limitations
2: A Short Primer in the Accounting of FinancialStatements
2.1 The Accounting Equation
2.2 The Balance Sheet
2.3 The Income Statement
2.4 The Cash Flow Statement
2.5 The Articulation of Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and CashFlow Statements
2.6 Financial Statement Analysis: Ratio Analysis
3: Financial Statement Modelling
3.1 Introduction - How Financial Models Work
3.2 Collecting and Analyzing Historical Data
3.3 Selecting the Key Forecast Drivers
3.4 Modelling the Income Statement
3.5 Balancing the Balance Sheet
3.6 Modelling Interest and Circular References
3.7 Modelling the Cash Flow Statement
4: Forecasting Performance
4.1 Introduction: Designing a Dashboard-like ControlPanel
4.2 Basic Statistical Methods Used for Forecasting
4.3 Forecasting Sales
4.4 Forecasting Costs
4.5 Forecasting CAPEX and Depreciation
4.6 Forecasting Working Capital and Funding Needs
5: Business Valuation
5.1 Valuation Approaches
5.2 Steps for Applying the DCF Method
5.3 Rewriting Financial Statements - Calculation of Free CashFlows
5.4 Calculating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital
5.5 Estimating the Terminal Value
5.6 DCF Summary - Enterprise Value Adjustments
Part II: Planning for Uncertainty
6: Using Sensitivity Analysis
6.1 Introduction
6.2 One-Dimensional and 2-Dimensional Sensitivity Analysis
6.3 Choosing the Variables to Change
6.4 Modelling Example
7: Using Scenarios
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Using Scenario Analysis with Excel's ScenarioManager
7.3 Alternative Ways to Create Scenarios in Excel
7.4 Applying Scenarios to SteelCo's Case
8: Using Monte Carlo Simulation
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Building Uncertainty Directly Into the Modelling Process
8.3 Probabilities, Cumulative Probabilities and FrequencyDistribution Charts
8.4 Modelling Example
Appendix
1. Walking through the Excel Model Provided with the Book(SteelCo SA 4yr Business Plan)
2. Description of the Other Excel Files Provided with theBook
Index

Über Autor(innen)

MICHAEL SAMONAS is a finance professional with extensiveexperience in Financial Planning, Analysis and Modelling. He iscurrently the Group CFO of SIDMA S.A, a member of Viohalco Group ofcompanies. He has worked in the past for various multinationalsincluding Vodafone S.A. and Hellenic TelecommunicationsOrganization conducting a range of models for business planning,valuations, mergers, projects and data analysis. For a number ofyears Michael was instructor at the School of Business &Economics of the University of Laverne, Athens Campus.